Congratulations to the people of Edo. Hopefully there shall be peace and that they've elected a governmemt that will answer to them while pursuing their hopes and aspirations of peace and prosperity.
Also, I hope those who rejoiced over the Bayelsa governorship and Rivers rerun results will also rejoice and congratulate the winners of this election.
In the interim, I await Oga Migi's analysis of how this election was won and lost and if the current allegations of rigging are valid enough to significantly swing the outcome of this election
. We are still largely bad losers in Nigeria when it comes to democracy and elections.
The present Edo state is made up of three distinct entities. The Binis in the South, the Ishan(Esan) in the Central and the Afemais in the North. Edo South account for about 55% of the voting population, Edo North is about 25% while Edo Central is about 20%. At the advert of this democracy, Mike Akhigbe wanted Edo North who had never produce an elected Governor to produce the Governor of Edo state but the Binis made a strong case that it was their turn because while the Ishan had their turn in Ambrose Alli, theirs in the person of Sam Ogbemudia and Oyegun were truncated. So, the position went to the Binis in the person of Lucky Igbinedion with Edo North producing the Deputy in the person of Mike Ogiadomhe with the understanding that after the Binis in Lucky Igbinedion, it moves to Edo North. Trust politicians never to keep to a gentlemans agreement. After Lucky Igbinedion 8 years, the PDP ticket was given to the Ishans with the influence of Anenni and Late Stella Obasanjo. OBJ wanted Julius Ihobvhere from Edo North. This angered the Edo North people and they massively decamped to Action Congress(AC) and when the popular Adams from Edo North came into the picture with the LP ticket, he was persuaded to move to AC which was a bigger platform, by the Edo North people. Nobody knew why Lucky Igbinedion put his structures and backing at the deposal of AC Adams instead of PDP Osunbor. Maybe, he wanted to still fulfill the gentlemans agreement of Edo North getting the slot. Adams massively won in Edo North and shared the votes of Edo South. The PDP had to massively inflate the figures of Edo Central to win the election and by the time Adams challenged the Edo Central figures, the inflated figures were deducted and he was declared the winner by the courts.
After the 8 years monumental failure of Lucky Igbinedion government, the Binis wanted the position back after Adams. Ordinarily, for the sake of equity, it was the turn of Edo Central(Ishans) but politics not being mathematics means that the party that gives the ticket to the Binis stood a bigger chance of winning. So, APC and PDP both went for a Bini candidate. Edo North is a stronghold of APC because of Adams and the Edo North people now see him as the political figure they have been craving for all these years. The Binis had the likes of Ogbemudia and Igbinedion(father of Lucky Igbinedion) while the Ishans had the likes of Anenni and Ikimi and so were always able to call the shorts. Edo Central is the stronghold of PDP. So the decider was Edo South(Binis). Adams ensured he pacified the Binis and made them forget their loss during the Lucky Igbinedion incompetent years by massively developing Benin during his first term.
PDP went for a Bini candidate with an Ishan Deputy while APC went for a Bini candidate with an Edo North Deputy. Maybe APC decided against giving the Deputy slot to Ishan because it might not really sway their votes to APC given the presence of PDP Anenni and Ikimi. The potential loss in votes there can easily be made up with that from Edo North which has a bigger voting population than Edo Central. Moreover, Adams late wife is from Ishan(Igueben) and so sentiments can favour him there.
Looking at the LGA result breakdown, it can be seen that APC won all the LGAs in their Edo North(Akoko-Edo LGA, Etsako West, Etsako East, Etsako Cenral, Owan East LGA, Owan West LGA) stronghold while PDP won 4 out of the 5 LGAs in their Edo Central(Esan North Central, Esan West LGA, Esan South East LGA, Esan North East LGA) stronghold . The only Edo Central LGA won by APC is Igueben LGA which is the home of Adams late wife.
The battle became Edo South which is home to the Binis with Ovia(Ovia North East and Ovia South West) being the home of the Igbinedions who are the principal backers of the PDP candidate. The PDP candidate held the position of SSG and COS to Lucky Igbinedion. APC won all but one of the LGAs in Edo South. The big question was Did the Binis want to stick with Adams or go back to the house of Igbinedion?. I cannot answer this question as iam not from that axis. It will be apt to note that few days to the election, the revered and well respected Sam Ogbemudia endorsed Obaseki, the APC candidate.
The big plus for APC prior to the election was for being able to manage the fallouts of the primary election. There was so much expectation that the APC primaries will produce so much rancor especially with Adams current Deputy, Odubu who wanted to take over from him not being anointed but insisted on contesting the primaries which he lost. None of the aspirants that lost decamped to pick the ticket of other parties.
PDP has alleged that their candidate Ize-Iyamu won the election based on feedbacks from collations from their agents at the various polling units. So, we have to wait for the courts.