Quote:
Originally Posted by ManIsland
I don't want to be quoted, but here is my take: Crusader, for the most part, since it has been placed on TS has been on a BID,.. signalling huge investors interest and potential for massive oversubcription of the coming offer. The other clue is that they may be working or finalizing agreements with foreign or local institutional investors that will be taking the most chunk of the offer ..."Think Preferential Allotment" .
Further on Preferential Allotment, Crusader is one I would consider an institutional quality stock with a gaint like the NSITF holding a huge stake of the company. I would expect that Crusader would allot shares to NSITF enough to at the least maintain NSITF current % holding.
I would consider mopping some shares of Crusader from the floors of the exchange now to avoid the inevitable blood bath that comes with allotments for oversbcribed issues . Personally I have since said goodbye to POs & PP.
I already foresee big money all over this offer. To help decide where or how to allocate funds between the PO or purchase stock through the exchange... you can use the "Public Offer Desicion Table" in the Financial Tools section of this link Nivestors - Resources . |
I do not know yet concerning whether and to what extent the offer would be over-subscribed, particularly because I do not yet know the offer volunme and the offer projections as per offer Prospectus. However, I wish to point out that SEC rule has since outlawed preferential allotment. Second, the statement that "Crusader, for the most part, since it has been placed on TS has been on a BID,.." is a bit an over-statement as it was not until past few days that the stock started to be on a net bid. Hitherto (i.e., for the most part), it used to be on a net offer. Whether one should be "stockpiling" by buying from the secondary market at the TS price of 7.50 Naira is a issue best left for individual investors. But I feel that, by March 2009 (i.e., a year from now and if the present stock market situation still prevails), the stock would not likely trade above around 10 Naira. For a subscriber at N5, this would translate to a gain of 100% while, for a secondary market buyer @ TS price of 7.50 Naira, it would translate to 33% per year.