Quote:
Originally Posted by bwalaman
…I do not think a crash in the “western market” sense is not yet feasible… google Stock Market Crash for an update.
This is where we have to celebrate the in-efficiencies of the NSE , our brokers and the system…
… for a crash to occur, a certain level of systemization and efficiency is required- we can confidently say and we confidently know that the Nigerian investment milieu ( NSE, CSCS, brokers, information etc) does not have this “perfection”. Just refer to the Threads on NASCON and the one on Brokers to see how inefficient the NSE / Nigerian investment is…
So let’s celebrate our weaknesses… of course and exploit it… too.
Caveat…
1. A market correction is possible- the market finding a balance for particular stock is possible… you only have to look at DSR to see this trend, despite the excitement about Dangote… this is in fact happening week in – week out. Don’t be fooled, 25-35 shares loss value every week.
2. Red flag- all the FDI that is coming in and I suspect most of it is in “prefer shares” can do damage if they decide to rapidly withdraw…
What do you / we think??? |
What I think is that Western Style Crash may not happen soon, however, Nigerian Style crash can happen .....anytime but not necessarily soon.
If capital flies away and the good credit we have is destroyed by a few fools, these so called foreign investors will cut their losses and run; our inexperienced medium/small scale investors will panick because they are very inexperienced with rapid downtrends in markets; newcomers will retreat to old trusted businesses like Business Centre and Supply.
It may take three to six months, but at the end of it, the market will be at a value 20 or even 10% of what it previously was.
Work done = crash!