The Banks

[muranay@yahoo.com]

Originally Posted by waaan5

I am targeting the weak but highly connected banks - the wemas, BankPHbs and unity banks of these world - SLS dare not touch these banks. Forget the shakara. And I very much doubt the sincerity of the 'whole cleansing excercise' to begin with.

Pls do not follow me o! I am a very risky speculator after the ORDER of Dr., KOD. Plus I am satisfied with a 5 - 10% gain, and I risk only my funds (ok point of correction, my wife's funds under my management!).

Actually, the temptation from these three banks is much - PHB less than N3; Unity almost N1; and WEMA - N1.47

It is difficulty to resist especially for risk takers coupled with high level of connections associated with these banks- they are untorchable - no go area for SLS except for one of them.

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by muranay@yahoo.com

Actually, the temptation from these three banks is much - PHB less than N3; Unity almost N1; and WEMA - N1.47

It is difficulty to resist especially for risk takers coupled with high level of connections associated with these banks- they are untorchable - no go area for SLS except for one of them.

oK, from the pleadings of my boker, I have just replaced wema with Fidelity bank - for now.

[twentypercent]

Originally Posted by hispy99

THISDAY ONLINE / Nigeria news / African views on global news
14 Banks: Expect No Surprises

This day stated in this write-up that skye bank was certified fit during the first exercise....that isn't true!

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by twentypercent

This day stated in this write-up that skye bank was certified fit during the first exercise....that isn't true!

I am getting worried about ThisDay... t'was probably a typographical error they made by replacing Sterling bank with Skye bank.

[utuocha]

With the spate of recoveries going on, the five banks may end up been the most capitalised in future. These banks may become the envy of other banks as their non performing loans are cleared up. We may witness some write-backs very soon and their bottomlines will improve thus boosting shareholder values. I see some investment opportunities in these 5 banks!

[pegheneji]

Originally Posted by waaan5

From today, I am begining to BUY the banks again. I am daring SLS to takeover/nationalize/kill another bank ... He already has his hands full from his hasty and vindictive actions of recent.

However, my main reasons are that the two major market movers (Ololo and Hispy9), have been temporarily taken out of action - one by the EFCC, the other by FEAR! And I know this is going to be temporary,

moreso -I noticed a behaviour pattern in this bear season - my brokers ONLY buy for me when all others are selling, and sell only when all others are buying.

Na you be your broker?

[pegheneji]

Originally Posted by muranay@yahoo.com

Actually, the temptation from these three banks is much - PHB less than N3; Unity almost N1; and WEMA - N1.47

It is difficulty to resist especially for risk takers coupled with high level of connections associated with these banks- they are untorchable - no go area for SLS except for one of them.

which is WEMA, because unity and bank pHB will alway be untouchable atleast for now.

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by utuocha

With the spate of recoveries going on, the five banks may end up been the most capitalised in future. These banks may become the envy of other banks as their non performing loans are cleared up. We may witness some write-backs very soon and their bottomlines will improve thus boosting shareholder values. I see some investment opportunities in these 5 banks!

The thing is other banks are also making efforts to recover loans too... at the end of the day I see a vicious cycle forming because the recovered loans are taken from other banks, thereby reducing their deposit base and reducing their solvency position. I guess SLS, Jimoh Ibrahim and TwentyPercent may be right in this money printing thing...

[twentypercent]

Originally Posted by utuocha

With the spate of recoveries going on, the five banks may end up been the most capitalised in future. These banks may become the envy of other banks as their non performing loans are cleared up. We may witness some write-backs very soon and their bottomlines will improve thus boosting shareholder values. I see some investment opportunities in these 5 banks!

You are right, but the 5 banks will have to drop to a price low enough for the risk in investing in an uncertain future, that is even if the other banks that were cleared don't drop to a tempting level...you don't pick certainty over uncertainty!

[twentypercent]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

The thing is other banks are also making efforts to recover loans too... at the end of the day I see a vicious cycle forming because the recovered loans are taken from other banks, thereby reducing their deposit base and reducing their solvency position. I guess SLS, Jimoh Ibrahim and TwentyPercent may be right in this money printing thing...

Developed economies have always printed more money and introduced it slowly to match their economic policies when appropriate, I guess it is because Nigeria doesn't have a system of tracking the movement of money on a sectorial and commodity level down to perhaps a monthly basis. if we could get such a system in place, the FG thru its economic team and the CBN can then align both monetary and economic plans better without raising inflation as most expected.

The notion of printing money during a recessive period has the double advantage of feeding the deficit that grows in such periods while not having to look over one's shoulder for signs of inflation. the CBN will have to act swiftly and MUST monitor the economic data it collects for any signs of reversal....data of money movement from the banks will be pramount since that's the best we've got for now. There is absolutely no way a country like the US can get itself out of a $10trillion deficit position, in a recessive environment without printing trillions of dollars. This is the time the FG needs to embark on grand projects such as its railways network and agriculture revolution that will enable job creation and tame inflation.

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by twentypercent

Developed economies have always printed more money and introduced it slowly to match their economic policies when appropriate, I guess it is because Nigeria doesn't have a system of tracking the movement of money on a sectorial and commodity level down to perhaps a monthly basis. if we could get such a system in place, the FG thru its economic team and the CBN can then align both monetary and economic plans better without raising inflation as most expected.

The notion of printing money during a recessive period has the double advantage of feeding the deficit that grows in such periods while not having to look over one's shoulder for signs of inflation. the CBN will have to act swiftly and MUST monitor the economic data it collects for any signs of reversal....data of money movement from the banks will be pramount since that's the best we've got for now. There is absolutely no way a country like the US can get itself out of a $10trillion deficit position, in a recessive environment without printing trillions of dollars. This is the time the FG needs to embark on grand projects such as its railways network and agriculture revolution that will enable job creation and tame inflation.

How will printing money tirelessly not eventually lead to inflation?

[amajike]

Originally Posted by hispy99

THISDAY ONLINE / Nigeria news / African views on global news
14 Banks: Expect No Surprises

I think if this report is true it does show that SLS may have acted impulsively with the judgement meted out in the first round. Its looking to me that there was a soft-pedaling in this 2nd round. This was 1 thing I feared as all these things were unfolding, may be pressure was mounted from the who is who's and the gear had to be shifted to one. I really find it difficult to believe that this 2nd auditing revealed only one bank as having a problem, not even financial, but rather with their IT infrastructure. I'm sure there's more than meets the eye in this...seems the less noisy clean up is the way to go by now, which is what some of us looked for.

Well the official CBN report would be the final thing to go by...These are just the thoughts going on in my mind. I may be wrong though

[twentypercent]

Originally Posted by twentypercent

Developed economies have always printed more money and introduced it slowly to match their economic policies when appropriate, I guess it is because Nigeria doesn't have a system of tracking the movement of money on a sectorial and commodity level down to perhaps a monthly basis. if we could get such a system in place, the FG thru its economic team and the CBN can then align both monetary and economic plans better without raising inflation as most expected.

The notion of printing money during a recessive period has the double advantage of feeding the deficit that grows in such periods while not having to look over one's shoulder for signs of inflation. the CBN will have to act swiftly and MUST monitor the economic data it collects for any signs of reversal....data of money movement from the banks will be pramount since that's the best we've got for now. There is absolutely no way a country like the US can get itself out of a $10trillion deficit position, in a recessive environment without printing trillions of dollars. This is the time the FG needs to embark on grand projects such as its railways network and agriculture revolution that will enable job creation and tame inflation.

Originally Posted by hispy99

How will printing money tirelessly not eventually lead to inflation?

The point I was trying to make is that:
(1) you should be printing more money during a recessive period
(2) you need to tailor the money introduction to track you target inflation rate
(3) developed economies have always used the money introduced during a slow growth period to enhance/promote industry to engender the following growth period.
(4) Some level of inflation can be allowed if you are really in charge of it.

The textbook notion of more money supply leading to inflation is an ideal case, exceptions to this case are mostly the norm. Theory is far different from real life happenings, a robust economic model will prove this to be right and SLS gets the point while Soludo missed it !

I am not advocating printing of money the way Mugabe did in Zimbabwe, the value of your money can be tailored to the level of inflation AS LONG AS the users still believe in it!

[nosa2]

Originally Posted by twentypercent

The point I was trying to make is that:
(1) you should be printing more money during a recessive period
(2) you need to tailor the money introduction to track you target inflation rate
(3) developed economies have always used the money introduced during a slow growth period to enhance/promote industry to engender the following growth period.
(4) Some level of inflation can be allowed if you are really in charge of it.

The textbook notion of more money supply leading to inflation is an ideal case, exceptions to this case are mostly the norm. Theory is far different from real life happenings, a robust economic model will prove this to be right and SLS gets the point while Soludo missed it !

I am not advocating printing of money the way Mugabe did in Zimbabwe, the value of your money can be tailored to the level of inflation AS LONG AS the users still believe in it!

i hope you've considered the fact that any excess money you print is just going to be chasing the same amount dollars you have, all we'll achieve is crashing Naira's exchange value. As long as we're import dependent we dont have the luxury to try these theories. Anyway they've already done it so . . . . .

[pumping]

Originally Posted by nosa2

i hope you've considered the fact that any excess money you print is just going to be chasing the same amount dollars you have, all we'll achieve is crashing Naira's exchange value. As long as we're import dependent we dont have the luxury to try these theories. Anyway they've already done it so . . . . .

Yes, let us please understand this. The US can go ahead and print money and they do anyway but still with the risk of inflation. However, their currency is convertible and is not matched to anything (Not even gold anymore). As the US devalues it's currency, they have to pay less for what they owe because all their debt is in dollars. A win win situation for them.

In our own case, NAIRA has no VALUE. It has to be matched to the foreign currency we have which we cannot increase by Magic. Printing money will only lead to inflation though other monetery policies can be put in place to cushion the effect.

You cannot CREATE money by printing it. You can create wealth and print money to match it. Currency itself has no value. It has to be matched to something tangible.

[hispy99]

THISDAY ONLINE / Nigeria news / African views on global news
Bank Chiefs to Remain in Custody Till Sept 14

[hispy99]

THISDAY ONLINE / Nigeria news / African views on global news


Retrenchment Fever Grips Banks, Oil Companies
•Loans to customers dry up

[hispy99]

Guardian Newspapers
Friday, September 04, 2009
EFCC recovers N21.2b more


Court bars EFCC, CBN from arresting Odili over indebtedness - Proshare

[babe!]

Originally Posted by utuocha

With the spate of recoveries going on, the five banks may end up been the most capitalised in future. These banks may become the envy of other banks as their non performing loans are cleared up. We may witness some write-backs very soon and their bottomlines will improve thus boosting shareholder values. I see some investment opportunities in these 5 banks!

so counter-intuitive!
But there's a long way to go from 65B to 747B or so. and like KOD has said others banks are not sleeping too.

[twentypercent]

Originally Posted by nosa2

i hope you've considered the fact that any excess money you print is just going to be chasing the same amount dollars you have, all we'll achieve is crashing Naira's exchange value. As long as we're import dependent we dont have the luxury to try these theories. Anyway they've already done it so . . . . .

Originally Posted by pumping

Yes, let us please understand this. The US can go ahead and print money and they do anyway but still with the risk of inflation. However, their currency is convertible and is not matched to anything (Not even gold anymore). As the US devalues it's currency, they have to pay less for what they owe because all their debt is in dollars. A win win situation for them.

In our own case, NAIRA has no VALUE. It has to be matched to the foreign currency we have which we cannot increase by Magic. Printing money will only lead to inflation though other monetery policies can be put in place to cushion the effect.

You cannot CREATE money by printing it. You can create wealth and print money to match it. Currency itself has no value. It has to be matched to something tangible.

The money you print doesn't have to 'chase' any dollar, this is the mind trap that we are in from the posts I read on this issue. we also need to agree that we have been in a situation of inflation that has even been getting worse year-on-year because we have done nothing to infrastructure and diversify the economy, both of which you need to do before being able to tame the inflation. Recently, China has already warned the US about its devaluing strategy and I trust the chinese to come up with a way to counter the US move.

I don't know the current amount of debt we owe but I do not think we should conclude that the Naira has no value, value is inherently based on the strength of your economy and if I have my way, I will curtail our quest for foreign items in the country so as to control this idea of always 'chasing dollars'. Yes, you can print money to engender wealth if you deploy it to good use. The notion that you can't and that you need to create wealth and then print money to match it is counter to what the western nations are doing currently...are they not the ones who wrote the textbooks that teach us not to?