Access Bank

[Lidris]

3 years ago i bought 200,000 assess @ N3.5 but later the bank re-constructed their STOCK and i was left with half of my stock although i am still better off with half. My worry @ dis point is to sell or not to sell becos i dont think PO @ N14.5 is good for this stock quite expensive i will say.

Guys i need ur adv shld i sell now or wait for the party 2 be over. CK i need ur adv God bless u all.

[Avocado]

Have you sought the opinion of your stockbroker? You could ask, and then compare with other comments, including the one CK may have.

You could also register on proshareng.com; there's professional opinion there about ACCESS; the final decision, of course, will be yours.

.

[Lidris]

Thank u Avacado point taken.

[Rukky82]

Hi, still on this access bank issue , i bought some units late last year for 6.15k, so would you advice that i sell now and still buy from the ipo at 14.50 or should i still hold on to it.

[oseitutu]

Originally Posted by Lidris

3 years ago i bought 200,000 assess @ N3.5 but later the bank re-constructed their STOCK and i was left with half of my stock although i am still better off with half. My worry @ dis point is to sell or not to sell becos i dont think PO @ N14.5 is good for this stock quite expensive i will say.

Guys i need ur adv shld i sell now or wait for the party 2 be over. CK i need ur adv God bless u all.

Originally Posted by Rukky82

Hi, still on this access bank issue , i bought some units late last year for 6.15k, so would you advice that i sell now and still buy from the ipo at 14.50 or should i still hold on to it.

My people, interesting questions but you have the answers with you! When you bought, what was your exit point? Why did you buy? Have you acheved it? If you are a short termer, it may already be difficult for you to sell, as everybody knows you can get access for 14.50 so many people will not be rushing for it. If you do not mind a few more weeks with access, then hang on to what you have. By the time the public offer shares are available.....I suspect 9 months from now, you would have had an opportunity to sell your access bank at a higher price and buy some other stocks or hold for a much longer run. If you want to buy the PO, buy with fresh money

[wanaj0]

Access is overpriced. They pump up teh price in readiness for the PO. One bank that I know that does not do this is GTB.

For those in Nigeria, ask yourself what is unique about Access? What edge do they have over the competitors? The last PO they did, what happened?

Paragon, share buy back is totally different from share reconstruction. In Share buy back, you actually pay money to the shareholders. In share reconstruction you try to achieve the same objective without paying out money. Why do share reconstruction and follow up with another share issue? What is the sense in that?

Access produced an impressive Full year result. Going forward, I have little or no confidence in them.

Talking about share price increase, these are unusual times on the NSE. Wire and Cable that has not produced in years has moved from 56k to above N4.00!!!! I can go on and on about dead companies whose price are on the upward trend. Problem is when the excitement is over, most of the stupid stock picks will come to haunt a lot of people. In a bullish environment even the fool is considered smart. In a Bearish environment, only the 'wise' survives.

Whe you pick a stock, look at the managemnet, look at the EPS & P/E, look at the PEG, look at their expansion plans, look at their competitive edge, look at what makes them special.

Put in another way, if I am allowed to buy just one stock now, it will definitely not be Acess Bank.

[jules]

hi, i'm a new member and i happen to find this site really interesting. well, no matter what they say overpriced or undown priced am buying into access shares for sure and i hope you guys follow suite before you say had i known. thanks

[jules]

I'm a new member in this site which i find very thrilling and educating. well, no matter what they say be it overpriced or underpriced i 'm buying into Access shares for sure and i hope you guys follow suite before you say, had i known. love u guys! Cheeers!!

[Avocado]

jules: that's as matter-of-fact-like as they come, your post that is. It is true that there'll be good stories from those who bought stocks on the FeelGood factor. What's anyone going to tell anyone else about someone who - against all professional opinions - bought, let's say 100,000 units of Zentih during the last offer? The N1.69m investment is now worth over N6.5m; why did he buy? "I just like the confidence Jim Ovia showed at that conference; his smile told me he won't mess with our money".

But for people wish scrce resources and specific targets, numbers and supports for decisions matter, which is why some engage in these discussions. I have only N1m; which of GTBank or ACCESS should I buy today? Which of those two has the better indicators, the superior market brand, the greater potential for better performance, the better protection for my little fortune? We use numbers and other stuff to help. In the end, the stock with the worse score may do better than the one our analysis showed up as superior, but we'd've been satisfied we did the best we could given the available information. That's how decisions are made in sane places.

Welcome.

[c kenneths]

I do not like Access bank at it current price, and even the PO looks overpriced. I understand what Avocado is trying to explain here, the best recommended stock may not even be the one to give you the highest performance as in retuns to your investment, but in the end you will go home satisfied knowing that although you would have done better financially with a less recommended stock, you instead bought a safer blue chip and is satisfied with you marginal returns.

I have seen quite a company that headed south after all the positive hype about them. There are even times I joke that picking winning stocks could be done by closing your eyes and just choose any stock you point or call a six year old to help you choose among ten stocks, the kid might even beat you in your own game at the end of the day.

I would not have bought Afroil last year, or even thinking of buying IPWA, Costain but what is happening now?

All the same I cannot rule out the importance of research, so from my own stand point, I rather buy GTB at any price than risk Access. It will help me sleep better at night !

[oseitutu]

Originally Posted by c kenneths

All the same I cannot rule out the importance of research, so from my own stand point, I rather buy GTB at any price than risk Access. It will help me sleep better at night !

Sleep is important as retirement creeps in gradually, albeit steadily. I do not want to lose what I have saved so far in the name of investment.

[Tunde]

ALL,
I would sugget you calculate the E.P.S and P.E for yourself and not depend on anyone else for such an important factor affecting your investment decision. The figure of earnings for all listed companies is available in the unrestricted section of the NSE Website. Similarly are number of issued shares.

Please note that many stock 'tips' are given on the web by those looking to offloaod worthless holdings. The victims are usually investors not willing to to do basic research for themselves.

[Ellis]

I agree with everyone. Please lets not forget that if you are interested in PE ratio, then you cannot be mistaken if you buy Access Bank. Remember, when Zenith started, some of us thought it was overpriced. You simply cannot underestimate the effect of public perception. I think Access Bank is quickly being percieved as a fast growing bank and as such will continue to give investors better returns. Like some of watched Zenith and Oceanic grow, I bet we'll watch Access grow as well. If you are interested in PE Ratio, do the needful.

Rgds,
Ellis

[CINO]

In addition to fundamentals, we are overlooking certain soft issues that affect market prices. In our environment where majority of the investors are actually petty traders with no time or competences for checking fundamentals, some each like the following affect prices.

1. Consumer Perception/Bandwagon Effect: Only recently the shares of Oceanic, UBA and Diamond have shot northwards after TS. Investors are 'hoping' that the same will happen to Access. Why not position and take profit after the TS is lifted.

2. Emerging Difficulty in Money Laundering : With so much money available in Nigeria and the difficulty in money laundering, moneybags are choosing to dump money in shares rather than banks. It is a lot easier to elude EFCC. In effect, very little attention is paid to serious analysis and NSE ia awash with trades in serious volumes.

3. Advertising/Marketing: How well has the coy sold themselves to the public? More than half the investors in the 'BIG ELEPHANT' FBN know little or nothing about stock but got sold on marketing.

My point is that irrespective of the fundamentals, prices will go north/south.

[RethinK2.0]

My people

i am new on this forum but i must say i really sppreciate it.

Having read everythin here, i guess the point everyone should consider is risk.
The correlation between both is straightforward. High risk, high return...at the same time, low risk low return.

EPS, PE, competitive advantage show that investing in Guaranty bank is less risky than Access BUT in a bullish market, Access probably will outperform GTB.

GTB is safer but Access is more mouth-watering to a speculator (or someone who wants to make money in short term as many of us want to and achieve in NSE)

Try as it might GTB shares do not look like achieving 200% gains in capital appreciation in the near future even though i believe its a very good buy.
In a bullish over-optimistic market like ours however, can you dare say that about Acess? you have to look no further than examples of fidelity (500%), fcmb (300%), mutual benefit (500%), corner stone, lasaco. i can almost hear someone saying "what if market goes bearish?"

well then, let everybody consider their risk profiles and act accordingly. i am not puttin all my earnings in access or gtb. thats why we diversify afterall

[oseitutu]

Rethink2.0, unless you are new here or in stocks, remember that BULLS MAKE MONEY, BEARS MAKE MONEY, PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED. Tell me, with the 500% that has been made in these companies, when do you decide to pull out? 200%?500% or wait for 1000%. It is good to see returns, but at the same time beware of greed. In a market like ours, Access and GTB are good like you said, but which one will survive a correction and when will correction come? If you answer these questions, then you can jump into wherever you like!

[RethinK2.0]

Well, lets look at it this way, if there is a correction, it is at best a calculated guess to say th