Intercontinental Bank

[Survival2006]

Is there any prediction supporting any expectation of a bonus issue by Intercontinental bank come 2008? It will be interesting if anyone can bare his/her opinion on this topic. The benefit of such projection is to assist in ascertaining with some measure of certainty as to the price target of this bank's shares since it has been virtually dormant for some months now. Taking position now might not be too late since their year end is just February and the bearish trend of the market seems to encourage BUY, BUY.

With the increasing level of POs on the part of the banks, I see their shares outstanding bloating too high as to be unable to reward the resultant enormous spectrum of their stakeholders in the short term. My thinking, though!

[ayemco]

Hi Survival 2006,

My own opinion too. The oustanding shares of Intercontinental after all the IPO's and the foreign unvestment is enormous. And untill there future growth can catch up with the diluted shares and the funds received deployed to serious growth areas, I would not even recommend a bonus issue. However, you can be rest assured that you will get a very generous dividend payout from Inetcontinental in the 2008 Financial Year. The current price around 25 26 is undervalued my brother. The righ place value for this shares shoulf be 39 - 40>. Make u buy Oooooo.

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by ayemco

Hi Survival 2006,

My own opinion too. The oustanding shares of Intercontinental after all the IPO's and the foreign unvestment is enormous. And untill there future growth can catch up with the diluted shares and the funds received deployed to serious growth areas, I would not even recommend a bonus issue. However, you can be rest assured that you will get a very generous dividend payout from Inetcontinental in the 2008 Financial Year. The current price around 25 26 is undervalued my brother. The righ place value for this shares shoulf be 39 - 40>. Make u buy Oooooo.

Could you please provide any insight about how you came up with the N40 price?

[ayemco]

My Brother, There are a lot of things that have made me arrive at a 39-40 price for Intercontinental. Strong Quarterly results, Solid Fundermentals, Additional Capital injection, Good record of deploying surplus funds to growth and high return areas. You also need to look at where its peers are. Intecontinental is one of the biggest bank in Nigeria (if not the biggest depending at which angle you look at it.) It is the only Nigerian bank in the top 500 in the world. You just wait and see, once its getting towards it 4th Qtr 2008.

[ATESEMHE]

All the analyst are recommeding a buy for this stock.And they put a 3-6 month forcast at N40. i think is a buy too:

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by ATESEMHE

All the analyst are recommeding a buy for this stock.And they put a 3-6 month forcast at N40. i think is a buy too:

my brother, analyts can be wrong. I get recommendations from one major broker and they have been wrong several times. Nothing beats doing your home work yoursel; of course having the analyst recommendation is a plus

[Apache]

I personally don't share the same sentiments with Intercontinental. They are definitely big, profitable and have good prospects. But their undoing is the number of issued shares available. After Ecobank, i think they come next (not sure). for the price to rise upto =N=40, there has to be crazy demand to mop up the large supply of the stocks. I don't know the kind of result that intercontinental can release to create that kind of demand or rush for their stocks.

[Ahaah]

Apache,

Intercontinental Bank’s diluted earnings per share (including all the recent share issues and using its last financial year end result ) is N0. 80 kobo translating to a PE ratio of 31.3 at the current price of N25 per share. The bank posted more than 100% growth in profit after tax for its 1st quarter. If that trend is sustained till the end of its financial year the bank’s earnings per share will increase to N1.60 translating to forward PE ratio of 15.63 at the current price of N25 per share. This ratio will be too low for a growing bank like Intercontinental. The price will likely rise to move the ratio to about 25 resulting in a price of N40 per share (25 multiplied by N1.60). The bank’s second quarter result currently due for release will, however, give a hint as to whether the aforementioned growth trend would be sustained.

[balaliyu]

Well folks....im very skpetical about Intercontinental bank too......with about 20billion shares - that is clearly unmanageable. I understand that they even planned a reconstruction, but the prolonged suspension plus new SEC rules requiring prompt dispatch & verification of certificates seems to be holding them back.

On the whole, I dont think they foresaw nor planned this huge capital influx very well...so we should not expect the same level of performance in the short to mid-term. I dare say this for most banks now...more capital, slimmer margins (with increased competition), and of course there is a limit to how much trading you can get involved in so at some point, they must begin to invest in the real sector..and thats slimmer margins still...

I sincerly hope they know what they are doing--but Im not too happy with the bank. I bought their last PO(Nov 2006)..and no word yet on certifcates. Such a shame for bank that calls itself the happy bank.

Cheers....B

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by ayemco

My Brother, There are a lot of things that have made me arrive at a 39-40 price for Intercontinental. Strong Quarterly results, Solid Fundermentals, Additional Capital injection, Good record of deploying surplus funds to growth and high return areas. You also need to look at where its peers are. Intecontinental is one of the biggest bank in Nigeria (if not the biggest depending at which angle you look at it.) It is the only Nigerian bank in the top 500 in the world. You just wait and see, once its getting towards it 4th Qtr 2008.

There are a number of banks with solid fundamentals, what makes Intercontinetal's fundamentals "more solid" than the others? In fact in terms of valuation multiples such as PE, PEG and profitability ratios (ROE e.tc), there are several banks with better multiples/ratios than Intercontinental. The bank is not going to continue to grow at it's current pace and size does not generally translate to excellent shareholder returns (Union Bank?).

I own Intercoontinental shares and I would of course be happy if the price goes to N40, even N50, but I just do not see it happening.

[c kenneths]

Intercontinental has the potential to sustain its very high performance over the years, true about the very large no of shares but the management had proved to know their onions in previous situations, I am not thinking they will do a split come next year but the payout will be robust.

That brand is starting to get the type of positive drive GTB has and it will not be difficult to use in stamping their authority in the top echelon of west Africas banking space.

I think they can make 40 by feb. Next year.

[jesusislord]

This bank declared a devidend of N0.65 per share since 5 months ago. Has any body received it or is mine missing in transit?

[Apache]

Originally Posted by c kenneths

Intercontinental has the potential to sustain its very high performance over the years, true about the very large no of shares but the management had proved to know their onions in previous situations, I am not thinking they will do a split come next year but the payout will be robust.

That brand is starting to get the type of positive drive GTB has and it will not be difficult to use in stamping their authority in the top echelon of west Africas banking space.

I think they can make 40 by feb. Next year.

That Intercontinental will do well is nearly beyond doubt. N40 by feb 08? I gues time will tell though i personally don't think so. Well, i guess i can't comment on future prices because that has never been my strategy. As long as the company will continue to grow profitably at least for the next 5 years, that is enough reason for me to invest in it.

[Doyin]

Intercontinental has sound fundermentals no doubt, but in the short run, investors who bought PO last year would probably want to take profit as soon as they get certificates and these are delisted into their cscs account.
I see a potential strong selling pressure once people start getting certificates so a buy now may not be a good idea as the price may drop...
Then again, next year, most banks will declare good returns.. imagine First bank having over 4billion in free funds from the PO, holding it for 6-9 months before releasing it (interest free) to the subscribers.. This will definetely have an impact on their profit statement, and the same goes for most of those banks doing offers... so banking stocks (not just intercontinental) would be good to buy next year....

[DRo]

Originally Posted by jesusislord

This bank declared a devidend of N0.65 per share since 5 months ago. Has any body received it or is mine missing in transit?

I received my dividend about 2weeks ago, still waiting for the share certificate. Just check the address you used.