Phb Result

[juliusdudu]

Bank PHB just posted there new result.
Aturnover 33.4 b
profit after tax 8.45.

with this new earning, there EPS is:

outstanding share 6435024933
offer 5000000000
over subscription 1250000000

EPS is 0.66 fully diluted with oversubscription and without oversubscription 0.74.
Guru's in the house, am I right?
I think it is still a good buy at this current price. They also have a low PE of 6-7. Am I right?

[newton]

No!
Currently Bank PhB has

8,043,781,166 - issued shares (u dint factor in the 1 for 4 bonus).

Also the PE current/projected cannot be below 20 based on their current/projected earnings after factoring in the 5bn shares recently offered.

See IBTC stock select attached for othe useful info

[juliusdudu]

u are definitely right .there total share sould be around 14b inclusive of oversubscription.

[riskreturn]

Originally Posted by juliusdudu

u are definitely right .there total share sould be around 14b inclusive of oversubscription.

The information is not correct, particularly as it relates to the P/E ratio of 20 times being referred to. But before I discuss this next paragraph, I want to point out upfront that no one can guess yet what the extent of over-subscription would look like, unless those who have access to inside information.

Concerning what the P/E ratio could be come June 2008, if the half-year profit of 16.448 billion Naira can be replicated in the 2nd half (i.e., under the hypothetical and extremely conservative scenario that the profit for the 2nd half does not surpass that of the 1st half, despite the fact that the PO funds would now be available for the last quarter of the financial year), the bank will have surpassed its projected 16.135 billion Naira profit (as stated in the PO prospectus) for the entire financial year. The projected 16.135 billion Naira alone results into a fully diluted (i.e., by including new shares from the PO) P/E ratio of only 13.71 times, in the very unlikely event that the projected profit is not surpassed but just exactly attained. Even if absorbed over-subscription is up to 5 billion shares (i.e., the same volume as the planned regular subscription of 5 billion shares), the P/E would still be much lower than the 20 times being referred to.

[riskreturn]

Originally Posted by riskreturn

The information is not correct, particularly as it relates to the P/E ratio of 20 times being referred to. But before I discuss this next paragraph, I want to point out upfront that no one can guess yet what the extent of over-subscription would look like, unless those who have access to inside information.

Concerning what the P/E ratio could be come June 2008, if the half-year profit of 16.448 billion Naira can be replicated in the 2nd half (i.e., under the hypothetical and extremely conservative scenario that the profit for the 2nd half does not surpass that of the 1st half, despite the fact that the PO funds would now be available for the last quarter of the financial year), the bank will have surpassed its projected 16.135 billion Naira profit (as stated in the PO prospectus) for the entire financial year. The projected 16.135 billion Naira alone results into a fully diluted (i.e., by including new shares from the PO) P/E ratio of only 13.71 times, in the very unlikely event that the projected profit is not surpassed but just exactly attained. Even if absorbed over-subscription is up to 5 billion shares (i.e., the same volume as the planned regular subscription of 5 billion shares), the P/E would still be much lower than the 20 times being referred to.

JUST A POINT OF CLARIFICATION:
The analysis above is based on offer price of 17.00 Naira, as opposed to the etchnical suspension price of 25.51 Naira. At the technical suspension price, the P/E ratio, based on the projected profit and planned volume of shares (i.e., without absorption of over-subscription) would be 20.57 times. Each billion units of over-subscribed shares that are absorbed would increase this P/E ratio bu 1.58 times, assuming hypothetically that the absorption does not immediately translate to increase in profit during the financial year. Thus, assuming unchanged profit level, if 2 billion units of over-subscribed shares are absorbed, this would jerk up P/E ratio from 20.57 to 23.73 (i.e. 20.57 + 1.58 + 1.58) times.

[riskreturn]

The technical suspension on Bank PHB has been lifted today, resulting into an immediate automatic 5% increase in price. But the net bid position may stop and the price may soon be taking a breath at about 30 Naira, before further increases would happen.

[juliusdudu]

thanks for the info but looking at the sure bet of over subscription, bankphb to me is now expensive as it is even scare to get on the market