Guinness

[Avocado]

Thread for Guinness Nigeria.

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[forumasto]

Hi..

I have some units of Guniness, I would like to see to buy say GTB..

Is this a good time to sell or should I wait a few more weeks.

N.B The share prices has oscillated between 130 and 125 Naira.

[rose]

Hi All,

There seems to be no reviews on Guinness, or maybe I missed the thread. Pls gurus, I need to know if it's a good time to sell off my Guinness shares. What future prospect is there (short term)?

Thank you.

[paragon]

all i can say is that the company has earnings which is very important. So if you are selling, you had better have a sound reason for doing so. they have yet to reap the benefits of some newly introduced products in the market. If you ask me, hold on to it.

[anekwlc]

Guinness has fair valuation right now and it has good fundamental. it may not be yeilding 100% return in two months like others but it is stock I advise you hold. I have some and not thinking of selling because to me it is better than the stocks that gave me higher returns this year.
I believe that after this period of Speculation [that gave room to rise in price of every stock], Stocks with good valuation and fundamental like Guinness, WAPCO, Floor mill, FBN etc will take their position

[olusolakemmy]

factors to consider before selling

1)What was your entry price? this is base on every individual as we bought into the company at different time

2)what was ur target profit? even if you bought the company two weeks earlier, and you targeted 50% before buying it, and yoou have achieved that mark, i guess you can sell.

3)is there other company you want to buy into with better prospet that the company in question? if you are eyeing another company that youhave analysed will further enhance your profit even better that what you presently have, you can sell.

4)Any negative company news? if there is any negative company news,then you can sell, even when the news is a rumour, it will still have effect on the price of the share

5)is there any external factor? if you need money urgently and no other sources, then you can sell

6)Is the company at it pick price? if the company is at it pick price following your analysis, then there might not be any reason for staying further except that you are sentimentaly biased towards the coy.

Factors are bound on why you shld sell, please consider your own circumstances and the company before youmake decision.
however, the verdict here is that you should hold on to your guiness!!!!!!!!!!
even though am not a shareholder in guiness but atleast fromothers said.

[anekwlc]

Guinness released their first quater result today with a 20% drop in PAT compared to last year although they recorded higher turnover.
However, investors rewarded their stock positively with close to maximum price appreciation (any reason).
I heard they had facts behind figures with Brokers two day before releasing this result. Is anybody aware of this fact or detailed result?
It may be nice to know what caused the drop in PAT

[hispy99]

Guinness Nigeria Plc Special Dividend

Proposed dividend: N6.80

Closure date: 20 - 27 June 2008

Extraordinary General Meeting: July 10 2008 for the purpose of the proposed dividend

[XXCASH]

Strange, even after the wonderful special dividend the price hasn't really moved. I think i should enter next week.
What do you guys think

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by XXCASH

Strange, even after the wonderful special dividend the price hasn't really moved. I think i should enter next week.
What do you guys think

I can sell you my own...I've been trying to sell for 2 weeks now at just N134. Since you are "family", I'll collect N133.99 from you.

[XXCASH]

Originally Posted by hispy99

I can sell you my own...I've been trying to sell for 2 weeks now at just N134. Since you are "family", I'll collect N133.99 from you.

Thanks alot for the offer, i'm actually shocked that you can't sell.

LET ME GO BACK TO MY BEDSHEET FIRST

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by XXCASH

Thanks alot for the offer, i'm actually shocked that you can't sell.

LET ME GO BACK TO MY BEDSHEET FIRST

You did not come back after now? What did your bedsheet say?

[billions]

Guinness Nigeria Plc in position for stellar growth following increased share capital —Report
08 July, 2008 02:00:00 Anonymous
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The unaudited third quarter (Q3) results of Guinness Nigeria plc (Guinness) for the period ended March 31, 2008 released recently showed that its turnover (TO) grew by 11.49 percent to N49.50billion, compared with N44.40billion in the corresponding period of 2007. Profit Before Tax (PBT) grew by 11 percent between 2007 and 2008 to N11.10billion from N10billion in the corresponding period of 2007. The tax provision which increased by 9.38 percent between 2007 and 2008 to N3.5billion from N3.2billion in 2007 brought about a Profit After Tax (PAT) of N7.55billion as against N6.84billion in 2007, representing a growth of 10.38 percent.
A cursory look at the company’s profit margins by analysts at FSDH Securities revealed a marginal decline in the PBT margin in Q3 2008 over Q3 2007 and over the full year 2007 figure. The PBT margin decreased marginally to 22.42 percent in Q3 2008 from 22.52 percent as at Q3 2007, and down from 23.90 percent as at the end of the financial year in June, 2007. This shows that the company’s total costs as a percentage of TO stood at 77.58 percent in Q3 2008, up marginally from 77.48 percent in the corresponding period of 2007. PAT Margin currently stands at 15.25 percent, down marginally from 15.41 percent in the corresponding period of 2007 and down from 17.17 percent as at full year 2007.


The result also indicates that the percentage of the TO, PBT, and PAT in the Q3 2008 result to the full year Audited TO, PBT and PAT for the period ended December, 2007 are: 79.50 percent, 74.57 percent and 70.62 percent, respectively. This suggests that while the company has improved its top line over its performance in 2007, it will need to cut costs to achieve last years’ bottom-line.

The company’s cost of goods sold increased in 2007 over 2006 by 22.62 percent to N34.14billion. The increase was higher than the increase in TO which was up by 16.05 percent to N62.26billion, thereby leading to a less proportionate increase of 8.97 percent in gross profit to N28.12billion. This resulted in a marginal decline in the gross profit margin from 48.10 percent in 2006 to 45.16% in 2007.

The operating profit increased by 16.39 percent in 2007 to N14.23billion. PAT increased significantly by 43.70 percent to N10.69billion from N7.44billion in the previous year. The PAT in 2007 was boosted by interest revenue of N2.10billion. Both the capital employed and the shareholders’ funds increased by 3.06 percent (N45.24billion) and 23.26 percent (N31.64billion) respectively over the previous year.

The Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) and Return on Equity (ROE) stood at 31.45 percent and 33.79 percent respectively in 2007.

The company paid a total dividend of N4.50k as benefits to its shareholders for 2007 financial year and declared a special dividend of N6.80k for shareholders whose names appeared in the Register of Members on June 20, 2008.

A cursory look at the working capital position shows that Guinness may not have difficulties in meeting its current obligations as they fall due. This is reflected in both the current ratio and quick ratio which stood at 1.56x and 1.08x respectively as at full year 2007. As at 2007, the working capital stood at N14.85billion, up from N14.19billion in the previous year.

As at the end of June 31, 2007, the total outstanding shares of 1.47billion were held as follows: 46 percent was held by Nigerians and 54 percent by offshore investors. Of the 54 percent held by offshore investors, 46.03 percent was held by Guinness Overseas Limited and 7.77 percent by Atalantaf Limited. The company has announced an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) to increase its share capital from N1bn to N1.25billion by creating 500million Ordinary shares of 50kobo each, an indication of capital raising exercise.

An analysis of the TO of Guinness in 2007 shows that its income of N62.27billion was derived from two major areas including Sales in Domestic Market (DM) and Sales in Foreign Market (FM). While DM accounted for a substantial 98.8 percent of the total income, FM accounted for 1.2 percent of the income. The growth in TO was largely due to excellent sales promotion activities, introduction of some international brands as a result of the company’s partnership and alignment with other international brewing companies and favourable macroeconomic environment.

The company’s product line include: Guinness Foreign Extra Stout, Guinness Extra Smooth, Harp Lager, Satzenbrau, Gordon’s Spark, Smirnoff and Malta Guinness.

Valuation/Analyst Recommendation

"In arriving at a fair value for Guinness, we estimated TO, Earning Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) and PAT for June 2008".

We project a TO of N68.49billion, based on a growth of 10 percent, over the previous year".

"We project EBITDA of N18.86billion based on EBITDA margin of 28 percent and a PAT of N10.63billiion based on a PAT margin of 15.52 percent. We used 1.47billion ordinary shares which we expect to be in issue as at December, 2008.The Forward Earnings Per Share (FEPS) generates N7.21".

"We estimated the Dividend Per Share (DPS) of N3.60, based on a dividend payout ratio of 50 percent. Adding the special dividend Guinness would pay a total dividend of N10.40 per share which will amount to N15.34billion. Looking at our forecast PAT of N10.63bn the company will not be able to pay this out of its current earnings. The balance of N4.71bn may have to come from revenue reserve which stood at N25.60bn as at June 30, 2007".

Applying Enterprise Value (EV)/EBITDA multiple of 10.94x, a P/E multiple of 19x, the analysts arrived at N134.07k per share using EV/EBITDA multiple and N136.92k per share price earnings multiple. A simple average of the two values generates N135.50k which is our fair value".

The forward earnings yield and dividend yield based on our fair value generate 5.32 percent and 2.66 percent respectively.

[billions]

Guinness proposes N6.80K special dividend to investors
Posted Wednesday, July 9, 2008

- Holds EGM tomorrow



PETER OBIORA

Proshare NI

July 09, 2008 at 08:45 GMT



Guinness Nigeria Plc (Guinness) has proposed a N6.80 Kobo special dividend payout to investors in its current Final Year End (FYE), as the company holds its Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM). This was contained in a document made available to Proshare NI in Lagos Nigeria.



The N6.80 Kobo per 50 Kobo Ordinary Shares amounts to a total of N10, 029 billion.



If the N6.80 Kobo dividend is approved at company’s EGM to be held in Lagos Nigeria on July 10 2008, the dividend warrants would be posted out on July 11, 2008 to members of the company whose manes appear on the Register of members as at the close of business on June 20, 2008.



Other businesses to be discussed include the increase of authorise share capital of Guinness from N1.0 billion to N1.250 billion by the creation of additional 500 million Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo each.

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by billions

Guinness proposes N6.80K special dividend to investors
Posted Wednesday, July 9, 2008

- Holds EGM tomorrow



PETER OBIORA

Proshare NI

July 09, 2008 at 08:45 GMT



Guinness Nigeria Plc (Guinness) has proposed a N6.80 Kobo special dividend payout to investors in its current Final Year End (FYE), as the company holds its Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM). This was contained in a document made available to Proshare NI in Lagos Nigeria.



The N6.80 Kobo per 50 Kobo Ordinary Shares amounts to a total of N10, 029 billion.



If the N6.80 Kobo dividend is approved at company’s EGM to be held in Lagos Nigeria on July 10 2008, the dividend warrants would be posted out on July 11, 2008 to members of the company whose manes appear on the Register of members as at the close of business on June 20, 2008.



Other businesses to be discussed include the increase of authorise share capital of Guinness from N1.0 billion to N1.250 billion by the creation of additional 500 million Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo each.

Does this mean there will be a bonus in the future?

[Avocado]

Quite likely; it's unlikely that Guinness would have much need for a N250m capital injection. Intercontinental will be doing sth similar.

Intercontinental Bank seeks to increase authorised share capital to N13 billion : Nigerian Bulletin! (June 26, 2008): Intercontinental Bank plc is seeking to create additional 3.5 billion ordinary shares to raise the company’s ordinary shares from 21 billion to 24.5 billion ordinary shares of 50 kobo each and 1.5 billion preference shares of 50 kobo each. This is aimed at increasing the the authorised share capital from N11.25 billion to N13 billion. This plan would be presented before shareholders at the annual general meeting that would be held in Abuja.

Guinness is one of the most reliable stocks in a receeding Nigerian market; had it for several years; no disappointment, and especially with reinvested returns...