Ashaka Cement

[horlads]

Originally Posted by nosa2

For all i care the market can price in all savings from their use the solar powered light bulbs but the fact is there is something fundamentally wrong with the management of this company, they seem to like holding on to cash and hate paying out huge cash dividends. As an investor i look forward to entering this stock somewhere between 11 and 10, and to those holding right now i'll advise SELL

Chairman, you dey really vex for Ashaka ooo!

[nosa2]

Originally Posted by horlads

Chairman, you dey really vex for Ashaka ooo!

vex ke, i made 70% from ashaka in 2009 and am planning same this year, instead of vexing na love i get for the company. P.s this was my original posts (for some reason i could not edit the previous) "For all i care the market can price in all savings from their use the solar powered light bulbs but the fact is there is something fundamentally wrong with the management of this company, they seem to like holding on to cash which means they most likely wont be paying out huge cash dividends any time soon. As an investor i look forward to entering this stock somewhere between 11 and 10, and to those holding right now who i assume bought about N10 i'll advise SELL and if your buying now well . . . . ."

[wanaj0]

Originally Posted by nosa2

vex ke, i made 70% from ashaka in 2009 and am planning same this year, instead of vexing na love i get for the company. P.s this was my original posts (for some reason i could not edit the previous) "For all i care the market can price in all savings from their use the solar powered light bulbs but the fact is there is something fundamentally wrong with the management of this company, they seem to like holding on to cash which means they most likely wont be paying out huge cash dividends any time soon. As an investor i look forward to entering this stock somewhere between 11 and 10, and to those holding right now who i assume bought about N10 i'll advise SELL and if your buying now well . . . . ."

That is not actually through. Ashaka since like 6 years ago started paying huge dividend from their reserves. Argument then was that they have no need for the money so they were giving it away to shareholders. Note that the capital works done was done from reserve. Dont think they took any loan. Cant remember the last time Ashaka did a PO or Rights.

My problem with them was lack of expansion which means there is no growth. I see Ashaka and DSR being the major surprises in 2010 outside of the insurance companies. Will just wait for Ashaka to release the FY result (this should be bad) and hope that will depress the price.

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by nosa2

vex ke, i made 70% from ashaka in 2009 and am planning same this year, instead of vexing na love i get for the company. P.s this was my original posts (for some reason i could not edit the previous) "For all i care the market can price in all savings from their use the solar powered light bulbs but the fact is there is something fundamentally wrong with the management of this company, they seem to like holding on to cash which means they most likely wont be paying out huge cash dividends any time soon. As an investor i look forward to entering this stock somewhere between 11 and 10, and to those holding right now who i assume bought about N10 i'll advise SELL and if your buying now well . . . . ."

Different strokes for different folks. I don't like dividends. I prefer companies that re-invest funds and pay very little dividends. Dividend paying stocks are usually adjusted for dividends and they have a way of disappearing through posts. The time lag is enough for me to create my own dividends by selling a portion and re-investing. The temptation to spend dividend is high but once the cash with the broker it stays there.

Another issue is that most high dividend paying stocks tend to sell at a premium and they don't usually experience wild price swings eg Nestle, NB, BCC, Redstar but low paying ones are more volatile eg Flour mills until recently, insurance stocks, low cap banking stocks...

[nosa2]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

Different strokes for different folks. I don't like dividends. I prefer companies that re-invest funds and pay very little dividends. Dividend paying stocks are usually adjusted for dividends and they have a way of disappearing through posts. The time lag is enough for me to create my own dividends by selling a portion and re-investing. The temptation to spend dividend is high but once the cash with the broker it stays there.

Another issue is that most high dividend paying stocks tend to sell at a premium and they don't usually experience wild price swings eg Nestle, NB, BCC, Redstar but low paying ones are more volatile eg Flour mills until recently, insurance stocks, low cap banking stocks...

why dont you look at it this way, dividend paying stocks are some what predictable, once its getting close to year end or (more recently) interim results there's usually a run on these stocks. If you look thru my initial posts on this forum you'll notice i usually used to ask about company year ending's (before i found out the source of information for my self) then i check the quarterly results and try to price the stock relative to the market/sector. Now last year ashaka declared a good result and i was expecting a generous dividend and i assume the market was expecting same because the price rose from about 8 to 17, they then went on to declare a good result but poor dividends and the price was punished accordingly. once i saw the results i sold at just over 17 and the price came down accordingly. Now what i'l trying to say is that thou a good result is very important to price movement the willingness to pay dividends is what makes us witness spectacular rises like the one witnessed in Dangote flour or CCNN.

[pumping]

Originally Posted by nosa2

why dont you look at it this way, dividend paying stocks are some what predictable, once its getting close to year end or (more recently) interim results there's usually a run on these stocks. If you look thru my initial posts on this forum you'll notice i usually used to ask about company year ending's (before i found out the source of information for my self) then i check the quarterly results and try to price the stock relative to the market/sector. Now last year ashaka declared a good result and i was expecting a generous dividend and i assume the market was expecting same because the price rose from about 8 to 17, they then went on to declare a good result but poor dividends and the price was punished accordingly. once i saw the results i sold at just over 17 and the price came down accordingly. Now what i'l trying to say is that thou a good result is very important to price movement the willingness to pay dividends is what makes us witness spectacular rises like the one witnessed in Dangote flour or CCNN.

I find it hard to agree with this. I will go with KOD's analysis. Stocks that are likely to yield high dividends are usually priced at a premium already and you won't see major swings. Now, it is different if a stock is expected to yield low dividends but the company now declares higher than expected dividends.

Anyway, look at it this way. Speculative stocks are likely to have the biggest price swings. High dividend yield stocks are generally predictable.

I don't see how we can explain Dangote Flours' movement based on dividend. The full year dividend was only 50k. Compared to the current price, this is a very poor dividend yield though this was great when the dividend was announced at N4.

[nosa2]

Originally Posted by pumping

I find it hard to agree with this. I will go with KOD's analysis. Stocks that are likely to yield high dividends are usually priced at a premium already and you won't see major swings. Now, it is different if a stock is expected to yield low dividends but the company now declares higher than expected dividends.

Anyway, look at it this way. Speculative stocks are likely to have the biggest price swings. High dividend yield stocks are generally predictable.

I don't see how we can explain Dangote Flours' movement based on dividend. The full year dividend was only 50k. Compared to the current price, this is a very poor dividend yield though this was great when the dividend was announced at N4.

i agree with you that high dividend stocks are predictable but the market tends to forget about them until the final results are released and dividends declared at which stage we see a rush to such stocks and the premium you & KOD talk about becomes priced in. A perfect example of this is AG Leventis, I entered leventis at an average price of 2.23, before entering i read the quarterly results and assumed the result would be mirrored and it would achieve an eps of about 50k, assuming they manage to 50% out as dividends that would result in a dividend yield of over 10% which would have made it cheap at that price. Another good example is first bank with their payment of dividends from reserves, that also caused a bullish run on the results.

[pumping]

Originally Posted by nosa2

i agree with you that high dividend stocks are predictable but the market tends to forget about them until the final results are released and dividends declared at which stage we see a rush to such stocks and the premium you & KOD talk about becomes priced in. A perfect example of this is AG Leventis, I entered leventis at an average price of 2.23, before entering i read the quarterly results and assumed the result would be mirrored and it would achieve an eps of about 50k, assuming they manage to 50% out as dividends that would result in a dividend yield of over 10% which would have made it cheap at that price. Another good example is first bank with their payment of dividends from reserves, that also caused a bullish run on the results.

Ok, I get your point.

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by nosa2

i agree with you that high dividend stocks are predictable but the market tends to forget about them until the final results are released and dividends declared at which stage we see a rush to such stocks and the premium you & KOD talk about becomes priced in. A perfect example of this is AG Leventis, I entered leventis at an average price of 2.23, before entering i read the quarterly results and assumed the result would be mirrored and it would achieve an eps of about 50k, assuming they manage to 50% out as dividends that would result in a dividend yield of over 10% which would have made it cheap at that price. Another good example is first bank with their payment of dividends from reserves, that also caused a bullish run on the results.

I sold my Leventis, because of the fear of illiquidity. That stock can freeze your funds if you are not careful though the underlying fundamentals are great. I see bids of Chevron at N73 but yet nobody is selling and the price is stuck at N69. Like I said decide your best strategy and stick to it. Meanwhile let me remind you that the UACN you are holding is not a high dividend paying stock...

[wanaj0]

Ashaka for all intent and purposes is a high dividend paying stock. Dividend has dropped in line with drop in profitability and need to fund some rehabilitation works. Ashaka use to have a HUGE cash reserve. Because after paying dividend, they have nothing to do with the money. At a point Ashaka had N1bn as interest income.

Portfolio balancing and structure will require you having different stocks based on your age, investment objective and risk appetite.

Many factors influence the rise in price of a stock, this includes the Ololo factor. Hence one can ONLY take a simplistic vie that price is rising because of dividend or any declaration for that matter.

[nosa2]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

I sold my Leventis, because of the fear of illiquidity. That stock can freeze your funds if you are not careful though the underlying fundamentals are great. I see bids of Chevron at N73 but yet nobody is selling and the price is stuck at N69. Like I said decide your best strategy and stick to it. Meanwhile let me remind you that the UACN you are holding is not a high dividend paying stock...

you sold your Leventis ! ! ! ! ! O well, it just crossed the N3 mark. You do realise that i'm holding UACN largely due to your recommendation, so i beg no give me heart ache

[esino]

Ashaka topped CCNN on friday, is the current price a good buy for say 6months period? I see it hitting 40 soon!

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by esino

Ashaka topped CCNN on friday, is the current price a good buy for say 6months period? I see it hitting 40 soon!

why do you think it's going to hit N40? technical, fundamental?

[nosa2]

Originally Posted by hispy99

why do you think it's going to hit N40? technical, fundamental?

bros you no realise say na bull season we dey now, share prices rise first then investors create reasons to justify the new prices

[pumping]

Originally Posted by nosa2

bros you no realise say na bull season we dey now, share prices rise first then investors create reasons to justify the new prices

You took the words right out of my mouth......Buy first, then value later...

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by nosa2

bros you no realise say na bull season we dey now, share prices rise first then investors create reasons to justify the new prices

i know o...just want to know how pervasive this line of thinking is

[123.rado]

ASHAKA CEMENT PLC
13 May 2010
Audited Year Ended (December) 2009

Profit and Loss Information
Turnover 09 N17.193b 08 N21.378b
PBT 09 N2.365b 08 N3.430b
Tax 09 (N1.422b) 08 (N1.360b)
PAT 09 N943.618m 08 N2.070b

Balance Sheet Information
Fixed Assets 09 N5.217b 08 N5.686b
Stock 09 N4.707b 08 N4.706b
Trade Debtors 09 N87.618m 08 N139.355m
Cash And Bank Balances 09 N849.614m 08 N1.636b
Other Debit Balances 09 N14.756b 08 N12.827b
Trade Creditors 09 N2.296b 08 N1.920b
Other Credit Balances 09 N10.180b 08 N10.279b
Working Capital 09 (N3.095b) 08 (N1.676b)
Net Assets 09 N13.141b 08 N12.795b

Corporate Actions
Proposed Dividend Nil
Proposed Bonus 1 for 8
Payment Date Nil
Closure Date July 12th -16th 2010
AGM Date July 28th 2010
AGM Venue Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja

[hispy99]

Vetiva Report

[Waves]

3 August 2010
Unaudited Q2 (June) 2010

Profit and Loss Information
Turnover 10 N10.082b 09 N8.948b
Profit Before Tax 10 N2.294b 09 N1.619b
Taxation 10 (N688m) 09 (N486m)
Profit After Taxation 10 N1.606b 09 N1.133b

Balance Sheet Information
Fixed Assets 31-06-10 N4.757b 31-12-09 N5.217b
Stock 10 N4.706b 09 N4.707b
Trade Debtors 10 Nil 09 N87.618m
Cash And Bank Balances 10 N2.077b 09 N849.614m
Other Debit Balances 10 N14.842b 09 N14.756b
Trade Creditors 10 N1.401b 09 N2.296b
Other Credit Balances 10 N10.535b 09 N10.180b
Working Capital 10 (N1.740b) 09 (N3.095b)
Net Assets 10 N15.635b 09 N13.141b

[Waves]

In this bear market, this stock has gained 25% over the last two weeks. What is driving this stock? Surely it can't be the DCC/BCC merger as CCNN (which is more efficient than Ashaka) has been heading south.