Transcorp

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by Babs_O

iyke-d welcome to stock market nigeria. I remember your id on naira land on the thread in which I raised the question what is the correct CSCS number. You were right that the alphanumeric one was the one to use on PO forms !.
It worked for me on International Breweries.

I pray you are right on this your comment.

hispy99, you got a good answer from iyke-d.

Yes, he gave an opinion which I respect. I am still not convinced about Transcorp till they start showing some numbers, then maybe I'll be a convert.

[Babs_O]

Originally Posted by hispy99

Yes, he gave an opinion which I respect. I am still not convinced about Transcorp till they start showing some numbers, then maybe I'll be a convert.

Agree with you. I am not convinced on Transcorp either. Especially since they have not published any results. However I wish them well. I see Transcorp as a speculative buy. I like the idea and the dreams.

[iyke-d]

First I must disclose that I do own a single share of Transcorp, just like I do not own a single share of IAA, Costain, Universal, Big Treat, and Zenith. If I had spare cash, I would only buy Costain and Zenith. My investment decisions are based on a number of factors including current/forward looking financial data, company/industry future prospects, coroporate governance and management expertise.

Let's assume that they are going to build just 2 hotels like you mentioned and need to borrow just 60% of $800 = $480m ~ N57B. $480m is still a lot of cash to raise. How much debt do they currently have on their balance sheet? What about exisiting debt covenants? Where are Transcorp's financials? How am I supposed to make a call on a company that has refused to release any financials. I do not know revenue and I have no clue regarding debt exposure. As far as I am concerned, I see too much talking. Give me financials please. I have said it before and I will say it again, if I see good numbers from Transcorp, I will quickly change my opinion, just like I have changed my opinion on a number of insurance companies that were over-priced several months ago, but now seem reasonably priced.

Don't know about other posts, but I know that I never knocked Tom's expertise. All I did was point out the error in a publication that he was never CFO at Pepsi.

Folks, I have been reading this thread on Stockmarket Nigeria for almost a year but resisted the temptation to register in order to respond to some of the moronic stuff being posted especially about Transcorp, but I must also say that a lot of it like yours have been very instructive as well.

I am not trying to get anyone to buy into Transcorp, obviously anyone wanting to buy now will need some financials to base their decision on, and that is not available. I spoke to a few people over there earlier this year wanting to know when the financials will be available. I was initially told that it was with the SEC for approval, but that was as far as I got until I gave up trying. I will like to think that the very fluid situation about NITEL did not help matters, but I may be wrong. Certainly, this is one area where they must be compelled to do better. Frankly, I am of the opinion that Ndi has long outlived her usefulness.

My overall point is a call for a little objectivity and I am sure that is still possible in the absence of financials, at least an acknowledgment that the Hilton deal maybe a good move or that problems of NITEL is not of their own making alone. By now we are all aware of the circumstances surrounding the birth of Transcorp and people have been predicting doom since May 29th of 2007, but that has not come to pass. Obviously, they must be doing something right for that not have materialized, won't you agree?

Could it be that "all their talk" is because they do have businesses or financial institutions in and outside of Nigeria falling over themselves to work with them? I mean look at the scuttled SAT-3 deal which was supposed to be vendor financed, wouldn't that embolden anyone?

[azob2002]

Originally Posted by iyke-d

Folks, I have been reading this thread on Stockmarket Nigeria for almost a year but resisted the temptation to register in order to respond to some of the moronic stuff being posted especially about Transcorp, but I must also say that a lot of it like yours have been very instructive as well.

I am not trying to get anyone to buy into Transcorp, obviously anyone wanting to buy now will need some financials to base their decision on, and that is not available. I spoke to a few people over there earlier this year wanting to know when the financials will be available. I was initially told that it was with the SEC for approval, but that was as far as I got until I gave up trying. I will like to think that the very fluid situation about NITEL did not help matters, but I may be wrong. Certainly, this is one area where they must be compelled to do better. Frankly, I am of the opinion that Ndi has long outlived her usefulness.

My overall point is a call for a little objectivity and I am sure that is still possible in the absence of financials, at least an acknowledgment that the Hilton deal maybe a good move or that problems of NITEL is not of their own making alone. By now we are all aware of the circumstances surrounding the birth of Transcorp and people have been predicting doom since May 29th of 2007, but that has not come to pass. Obviously, they must be doing something right for that not have materialized, won't you agree?

Could it be that "all their talk" is because they do have businesses or financial institutions in and outside of Nigeria falling over themselves to work with them? I mean look at the scuttled SAT-3 deal which was supposed to be vendor financed, wouldn't that embolden anyone?

First i Take offence for calling people's opinion moronic, its quite uncivilised to do so at this age and time.. People buy goods for different reasons, the fact is that figures alone do not tell how good a coy would be after all these are all numbers that could be juggled...One fact is that though the business model could be faulted as per being a diversified coy when its the shareholders that are supposed to be diversified, we cannot run away from the fact that they have a world class management in place and once Govt keeps to their part, they are definitely gonna fly..

I would say, for those coming into Transcorp stock now, they are trhe better off.. after all, HE THAT IS GROUND NEED FEAR NO FALL.. there is only one way forward and that is NORTHWARDS for the share price.. I would go in now and hopefully make my Kill by this time 6 months from now!

[kenebobo]

Originally Posted by azob2002

First i Take offence for calling people's opinion moronic, its quite uncivilised to do so at this age and time.. People buy goods for different reasons, the fact is that figures alone do not tell how good a coy would be after all these are all numbers that could be juggled...One fact is that though the business model could be faulted as per being a diversified coy when its the shareholders that are supposed to be diversified, we cannot run away from the fact that they have a world class management in place and once Govt keeps to their part, they are definitely gonna fly..

I would say, for those coming into Transcorp stock now, they are trhe better off.. after all, HE THAT IS GROUND NEED FEAR NO FALL.. there is only one way forward and that is NORTHWARDS for the share price.. I would go in now and hopefully make my Kill by this time 6 months from now!

I just pray that your plans materialize cos one more bad news may bring the price of this coy down just as it brought it from 9 to 2.5.

[iyke-d]

I just pray that your plans materialize cos one more bad news may bring the price of this coy down just as it brought it from 9 to 2.5

Maybe some folks need to pray harder so that their much desired bad news for Transcorp need to start rolling down... some people appear to be disappointed, all you need do is review this longest thread.

Heck, so even if it goes down to 50k, that would neither be the end of the world nor a world record, after all, the shares of Bear Stearns traded as high as $173 per share and as low as $2 per year within a year's span.

I think there is too much negative emotions invested in one particular stock, people should lighten up a bit.

[XXCASH]

Originally Posted by iyke-d

Maybe some folks need to pray harder so that their much desired bad news for Transcorp need to start rolling down... some people appear to be disappointed, all you need do is review this longest thread.

Heck, so even if it goes down to 50k, that would neither be the end of the world nor a world record, after all, the shares of Bear Stearns traded as high as $173 per share and as low as $2 per year within a year's span.

I think there is too much negative emotions invested in one particular stock, people should lighten up a bit.

My brother,

You no see the trend heading - transcorp dead or alive. Personally i agree with you that there is too much negativity on this trend about this company. However one thing for sure, this Yaradua's boys would do anything to see the remaining of the last administration go down the drain.
I JUST WONDER WHY, is nigeria too big to be one country.

[Babs_O]

"Copyright infringement "

[iyke-d]

I think its more of an issue of giving NITEL control to be able to prevent the ongoing sabotage of their cables (which I suspect is being carried out by NITEL staffers and the cabal that is not interested in Transcorp making any progress with NITEL), I doubt if it will change their revenue dynamics in any way.

Apparently, after the presidency and other government agencies have been cut off, they are now realizing the gravity of the situation, and they just so happen to trust NITEL more - part of the family. Come to think of it, if these agencies were paying their bills to NITEL, matters probably won't come to this. Hmmm.

[kenebobo]

Originally Posted by iyke-d

I think its more of an issue of giving NITEL control to be able to prevent the ongoing sabotage of their cables (which I suspect is being carried out by NITEL staffers and the cabal that is not interested in Transcorp making any progress with NITEL), I doubt if it will change their revenue dynamics in any way.

Apparently, after the presidency and other government agencies have been cut off, they are now realizing the gravity of the situation, and they just so happen to trust NITEL more - part of the family. Come to think of it, if these agencies were paying their bills to NITEL, matters probably won't come to this. Hmmm.

I have been reading ur posts and you seem to be a fann of transcorp. Transcorp has really made so may people take losses (including me) that is why you see so many bad post about transcorp becuase they have failed investors that put their trust in them. If awards were given to companies that wasted investors money, I think transcorp would win it, imagine a drop from 9.50 to 2.50 which means if you bought 950,000 worth of it in 2006, it would now be worth 250,000 and all they do is promise and promise and promise. They have made another promise and lets see how it goes anyway. Do keep up the good faith

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by kenebobo

I have been reading ur posts and you seem to be a fann of transcorp. Transcorp has really made so may people take losses (including me) that is why you see so many bad post about transcorp becuase they have failed investors that put their trust in them. If awards were given to companies that wasted investors money, I think transcorp would win it, imagine a drop from 9.50 to 2.50 which means if you bought 950,000 worth of it in 2006, it would now be worth 250,000 and all they do is promise and promise and promise. They have made another promise and lets see how it goes anyway. Do keep up the good faith

Lets face it, the business model of transcorp is bad. This coming from me after allowing about 1m units of it enter my portifolio is akin to Monday Quarterbacking. But still, let the truth be told. It also does not give one much comfort when you read about the new model they are coming up with which is tourism. Pray where is the margin the intend to go chase there? Has Tinapa delivered? Is Ikeja hotels the hotest stock in the market? As far as the bad press on Nija in the western world subsists (fuelled by the instability in the Delta), coupled with our peoples idea of a worth vacation having to involving travelling out of the country, there will be no meaningful development of the tourism sector. And transcorp will keep on having to dream up other stories to tell investors as turnaround baits.

[obinnaD]

All well said. I think the issue of transcorp has been overtly over beaten....For investors, the choice is simple - SELL, count your losses and move on OR hold and hope that things work out well for them. This continued bashing and rebashing is not adding anything other than making what is already bad appear 'very very' bad.

Transcorp idea was not utterly bad (I don't exect anyone to agree with me). It faced the harsh realities of being a 'government baby' and ofcourse had to carry the load of the people's anger and disgust for anything 'government'-driven especially where the government had been as infamous as the one that birthed Transcorp. But to say the model was bad is to be totally unfair and uncharitable.

Transcorp might not deliver the instant (quick) 100% ROI in 2 months like most stocks in our market, and must be a no-go area for a short termer. Even the long termers will need enough liver to hold on, but let's not cast so much ash on the company that the real prospects would be totally blurred.

I think my first paragraph summarizes my stand - SELL or HOLD, but stop this OVER-BASHING cos it adds nothing!!!!!

[iyke-d]

Lets face it, the business model of transcorp is bad. This coming from me after allowing about 1m units of it enter my portifolio is akin to Monday Quarterbacking. But still, let the truth be told. It also does not give one much comfort when you read about the new model they are coming up with which is tourism. Pray where is the margin the intend to go chase there? Has Tinapa delivered? Is Ikeja hotels the hotest stock in the market? As far as the bad press on Nija in the western world subsists (fuelled by the instability in the Delta), coupled with our peoples idea of a worth vacation having to involving travelling out of the country, there will be no meaningful development of the tourism sector. And transcorp will keep on having to dream up other stories to tell investors as turnaround baits.

We are each entitled to our opinions, there are those who will say Transcorp business model is bad and there are those (including me) who says its a fine model. We can argue back and forth until the cows come home, but only time will tell. If you don't own any shares in Transcorp, pretend it doesn't exist and spend your precious time or more worthy stocks. If you own some Transcorp shares, decide whether to SELL now at a loss or to stay put.

As for the anger of those who may have paid 9.50 a share of Transcorp, I empathize with you but I must say what were they thinking, after all there were plenty of shares to be bought at 7.50 (at least your losses would have been 2.00 less per share ). I guess they gambled on that and got burnt - you win some and you lose some, isn't that the story of the stock market?

[fredski]

Originally Posted by hispy99

First I must disclose that I do own a single share of Transcorp, just like I do not own a single share of IAA, Costain, Universal, Big Treat, and Zenith. If I had spare cash, I would only buy Costain and Zenith. My investment decisions are based on a number of factors including current/forward looking financial data, company/industry future prospects, coroporate governance and management expertise.

Let's assume that they are going to build just 2 hotels like you mentioned and need to borrow just 60% of $800 = $480m ~ N57B. $480m is still a lot of cash to raise. How much debt do they currently have on their balance sheet? What about exisiting debt covenants? Where are Transcorp's financials? How am I supposed to make a call on a company that has refused to release any financials. I do not know revenue and I have no clue regarding debt exposure. As far as I am concerned, I see too much talking. Give me financials please. I have said it before and I will say it again, if I see good numbers from Transcorp, I will quickly change my opinion, just like I have changed my opinion on a number of insurance companies that were over-priced several months ago, but now seem reasonably priced.

Don't know about other posts, but I know that I never knocked Tom's expertise. All I did was point out the error in a publication that he was never CFO at Pepsi.

I Concure totally. So far all we get are stories and fancy head lines. Note also GE, Deawoo and the lot Metamorphic. They where not created by some big bang.

[iyke-d]

I Concure totally. So far all we get are stories and fancy head lines. Note also GE, Deawoo and the lot Metamorphic. They where not created by some big bang.

Speaking about some big bang, I wonder who was expecting the big bang, was it those that invested and wants to make 500%profit in less than 2 years from an organization that is barely 3 years in existent or those who understands that it will take much longer than that to happen?

I don't know about others, but my expectations are fully in line.

[threecrown]

Originally Posted by waaan5

Lets face it, the business model of transcorp is bad. This coming from me after allowing about 1m units of it enter my portifolio is akin to Monday Quarterbacking. But still, let the truth be told. It also does not give one much comfort when you read about the new model they are coming up with which is tourism. Pray where is the margin the intend to go chase there? Has Tinapa delivered? Is Ikeja hotels the hotest stock in the market? As far as the bad press on Nija in the western world subsists (fuelled by the instability in the Delta), coupled with our peoples idea of a worth vacation having to involving travelling out of the country, there will be no meaningful development of the tourism sector. And transcorp will keep on having to dream up other stories to tell investors as turnaround baits.

Thank you my brother, i ev been resisting contributing to this transcorp tread of late though i ve been reading it with keen interest. What will tourism generate for transcorp compared to what a well re-engineered Nitel(telecomunication) will do. It is good to have faith in anything Nigerian which i keenly do but when it is time to calling a spade a spade let us do so. We have all kept faith with this country all our lives, the goverment keeps failling us so we are putting our faith in the private sector and now a company so call only owned by Nigerians is doing the same. Transcorp blew it big time and we should openly acknowlegde that. only those who master minded the birth of Transcorp can tell us the truth behind the story of transcorp because this guys are succeeding individually in there business so why couldn't they pull it together in Transcorp?

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by obinnaD

All well said. I think the issue of transcorp has been overtly over beaten....For investors, the choice is simple - SELL, count your losses and move on OR hold and hope that things work out well for them. This continued bashing and rebashing is not adding anything other than making what is already bad appear 'very very' bad.

Transcorp idea was not utterly bad (I don't exect anyone to agree with me). It faced the harsh realities of being a 'government baby' and ofcourse had to carry the load of the people's anger and disgust for anything 'government'-driven especially where the government had been as infamous as the one that birthed Transcorp. But to say the model was bad is to be totally unfair and uncharitable.

Transcorp might not deliver the instant (quick) 100% ROI in 2 months like most stocks in our market, and must be a no-go area for a short termer. Even the long termers will need enough liver to hold on, but let's not cast so much ash on the company that the real prospects would be totally blurred.

I think my first paragraph summarizes my stand - SELL or HOLD, but stop this OVER-BASHING cos it adds nothing!!!!!

I think the essence of SMN (this forum) is to share ideas and experiences. Nobody (I at least for one), sets out to 'bash' transcorp. BTW transcorp is just a business (not a nation or an individual) so there is nothing personal in expressing an opinion on the entity or their business model. To further buttress, I do not know and have never met an individual who works for transcorp. As a shareholder (with 1m units), I would have said as much in their AGM if I have an opportunity to attend one.

Lets not muzzle but encourage free flow of opinions and factual debates and analysis of companies and the fundamentals underpinning them, for the benefit of members and guests who visit this forum. People come here for such info to inform their investment decisions.

[obinnaD]

Originally Posted by waaan5

I think the essence of SMN (this forum) is to share ideas and experiences. Nobody (I at least for one), sets out to 'bash' transcorp. BTW transcorp is just a business (not a nation or an individual) so there is nothing personal in expressing an opinion on the entity or their business model. To further buttress, I do not know and have never met an individual who works for transcorp. As a shareholder (with 1m units), I would have said as much in their AGM if I have an opportunity to attend one.

Lets not muzzle but encourage free flow of opinions and factual debates and analysis of companies and the fundamentals underpinning them, for the benefit of members and guests who visit this forum. People come here for such info to inform their investment decisions.

I agree with you...all the way. But most comments here are not analysis but bashing which in my opinion are unfair and highly skewed. I thought the intent here would be to share new information about a company (positive or negative), but the continued bashing is very uncalled for and completely disregards the efforts currently in place to turn-around the company. I don't hold any stocks in the company and I am not standing in for them in any way but I think it objectivity and information sharing ought to be the way to go...

Anyways, thanks for pointing this out. I didn't intend that factual debates be muzzled out.

[Articulate]

Originally Posted by waaan5

I think the essence of SMN (this forum) is to share ideas and experiences. Nobody (I at least for one), sets out to 'bash' transcorp. BTW transcorp is just a business (not a nation or an individual) so there is nothing personal in expressing an opinion on the entity or their business model. To further buttress, I do not know and have never met an individual who works for transcorp. As a shareholder (with 1m units), I would have said as much in their AGM if I have an opportunity to attend one.

Lets not muzzle but encourage free flow of opinions and factual debates and analysis of companies and the fundamentals underpinning them, for the benefit of members and guests who visit this forum. People come here for such info to inform their investment decisions.

I agree with you. This forum is not created to massage anybody's ego. If your argument is superior bring it on board. It is only those who are not sure of positions that fear debate.

I have followed the discussions on this forum with keen interest. I am of the view that participants are generally objective and most discussions are based on facts with little room for sentiments. However, where the facts on ground are not favourable to those with a stake in a particular company, such members tend to be sentimental in their arguments. That a company is doing well is a matter of fact and not sentiments. I therefore find it irresistible to contribute to the discourse on Transcorp.

I love the idea behind the creation of Transcorp, but the strategy for its implementation was faulty. I am tired of the Lebanese, the Chinese, the Indians, the Shell, MTN, etc of this world coming to Nigeria and ripping our economy off. Nothing gladdens my heart more the emergence of genuine Nigerian companies like DIL, Oando, Zenon, Globacom, the recapitalized banks (Zenith, UBA, Intercontinental, GTB, First Bank) etc gaining the prominence in economic activities and giving back to the society. We need more of these companies and it is my expectation that the Transcorp will live up to the dreams of its founding fathers (and perhaps mothers for the purpose of gender sensitivity). For now, Transcorp is a dream and it will be to the benefit of the country, if the dream becomes a reality.

Now to the issue under discourse, based on the facts on ground, Transcorp has not done well so far. The company is long on talk but short action. At the time they were buying NITEL, they came up with a very impressive Post Acquisition Plan (PAP) for turning the NITEL into a world class telecommunication company. I know this because I work with the Agency that privatized Nitel. What have they done since then? Practically nothing! Ask people using MTel, most of the time they cannot even get recharge card for their phones. How could a company be profitable if it could recklessly neglect one of its major sources of revenue? Transcorp failed to rise on the back of the opportunities in the telecomm sector to create a profitable company. Now that opportunity is slipping away. Their handling of Nitel is a huge disappointment to all those involved with the transaction.

The reasons for the current sorry state of Transcorp are many. It creation is the first problem. You do not create a first class company by fiat. The people Obasanjo forced to start Transcorp have various contending interests. They only participated for the fear of incurring the wrath of the government in power at the time. Once that threat was lifted, they simply abandoned the company and went in pursuit if their various interests. Simply put, Transcorp is not structured as a proper company should be. It requires total restructuring for it to succeed.

Having said all these, does it mean that Transcorp has no future? No. The company has potential to succeed provided it could re-strategize. Transcorp Hilton Hotel is the best hotel in the country at the moment and I can say here authoritatively that the Hotel is a cash cow for Transcorp. Can they replicate this success elsewhere? It is possible, if they undertake a diligent study of the recipe for success. I must however warn that it is going to be quite difficult because they did not create that success in the first place. Some people said they have never seen anybody working for Transcorp. I know quite a few of them with nice offices at Transcorp Hilton Hotel and perhaps the luxurious environment is making it impossible for them to see the reality on ground. If you have been to the hotel, you will understand what I mean.

For Transcorp to succeed they need to bring committed people on board who would create a new vision/mission for the company and chart a new course. There are still huge untapped opportunities in telecommunication, tourism, oil & gas, power generation, transportation, manufacturing, agriculture waiting to be taped. A visionary management could easily use the goodwill the company has to tap into these opportunities and turn its fortune around. I agree with most commentators that it would however require more than building new hotels to turn the fortune of the company around.

[iyke-d]

@Articulate,

As your name implies, I doff my hat for your incisive and well balanced comments. I have a stake in Transcorp but that doesn't mean I don't see where they have gone wrong in the past or call them out when they fall short. But in the same vain, I also see some of the challenges they are facing, some which are clearly not of their own making. With NITEL, I still
find it hard to believe that a minority stakeholder will overrule the wish of a majority stakeholder. Transcorp has been accused of stripping NITEL of its assets, or planning to sell SAT-3, none of which is true. At some point, the MD of NITEL was openly querying Transcorp, how on earth can a subsidiary query a parent company in the pages of newspapers?

My beef is some people refuse to see any good in what Transcorp does, or recognize the nightmare that is NITEL (think NEPA) and I am not sure how that can be viewed as being objective. To be objective doesn't mean one has to like Transcorp as a company. Like you, not only do I personally know some Nigeria's brightest people that work in Transcorp, I have also been to their office in Lagos. However, in some people's world Transcorp is just a figment of the imagination that was coined to con people of their hard earned money - they probably don't think Transcorp has any offices or employ real people besides Tom and Ndi, etc..

Granted, people have been disappointed by their less than stellar short term performance thus far (I have), but they have also won some key fights, and all hope is not lost yet, heck, what is life without hope? Tom Iseghohi is a fine manager and I will be really worried if he doesn't leave any lasting mark on Transcorp's future. There is more to Transcorp than just NITEL.