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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12th August 2007, 02:39 PM
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Post Unilever

Guys can any webmate(no mind my language) updates me on Unilever , whose shares have been struggling for quite some time now. is it time to exit,hold or pile up more ?because it has broken the support level. do you see it going higher on a short term or what do you think?. i entered at N13.00,exited half of it at N19.00.Please, can some one bail me out because i am idecisive right now over this stock. Should i exit and wait for pull backs to renter
thanks
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Old 13th August 2007, 10:46 AM
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Default Re: Unilever

Just Hold on. I believe Unilever will move up to N24 as the company is posting profits this year.
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Old 13th August 2007, 02:24 PM
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Thanks buddy
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Old 13th August 2007, 03:05 PM
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Bail out of Unilever? you should even borrow and buy more of the stock as it will definitely perform wondrously this year, this is buying time for the stock, and it gained about 1.02 to end at 21.52 today.
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Old 13th August 2007, 08:52 PM
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I like this news,cos i was planning to sell it this week. Thanx once more.
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Old 16th August 2007, 11:18 PM
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This company has one of the most attractive fundamentals surrounding it, their products, like Omo, Close up toothpaste, Royco, Knoor cubes, Blue band margarine, Lux and Truck soaps are all market leaders in their various segments.

The management and directors led by credible men like Mr Felix Ohiwerei, etc are giving a good account of themselves, plus the profitability is increasing in leaps and bounds, its enough reason to hang on to this one.
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Old 17th August 2007, 12:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soweto View Post
Guys can any webmate(no mind my language) updates me on Unilever , whose shares have been struggling for quite some time now. is it time to exit,hold or pile up more ?because it has broken the support level. do you see it going higher on a short term or what do you think?. i entered at N13.00,exited half of it at N19.00.Please, can some one bail me out because i am idecisive right now over this stock. Should i exit and wait for pull backs to renter
thanks
Buy and keep. If you have excess money, you and put it on the stock in the short and long term basis. You will not regret it.
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Old 19th October 2007, 09:52 AM
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Default Unilever

Kudos to you guys out there! Just joined the forum yesterday and I am already excited with the answers and help I am getting. With the contributions on unilever, I have a relief of mind that I have not invested wrongly. A big thank you to the people that initiated this forum. Keep it up
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Old 26th November 2007, 05:40 PM
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Did you guys see the results on unilever? that was what I was expecting when I advised a lot of guys to go for unilever, there are companies you cannot go wrong with, long term.
Unilever is one of such stocks.
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Old 26th November 2007, 07:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c kenneths View Post
Did you guys see the results on unilever? that was what I was expecting when I advised a lot of guys to go for unilever, there are companies you cannot go wrong with, long term.
Unilever is one of such stocks.
@C Kenneth
I guess i have to disagree with you on this one. i am trying to be open minded here considering the fact that Unilever are direct competitors with the company i work for in one of our key categories.
what you have seen in Unilever's 3rd quarter result is a correction of the issue they had last year which was mainly accumulation of debts by their key distributors i.e Unilever were selling goods to their distributors on credit thereby accumulating huge debts which ran the company into a loss position (along with other problems due to poor management etc). Basically it seems that they have rectified this issue - remember they also laid off staff.
so right now, it is looking as if their growth is phenomenal compared to last year.
but if you compare this same result to their 3rd quarter of 2005, you will see that they were almost stagnant. their TO in 2005 was =N=24.6b compared to their current TO which is =N=26.5.
their PAT in 2005 was =N=1.46b compared to current PAT of =N=1.1b.
Unilever is facing very stiff competition in all their key categories. We have Ariel in their detergent category, Macleans in the toothpaste category, and as for soap - their key brand (Lux) has been losing market share since last year (they just lost their 2nd position of the soap market to competition recently).as regards the seasoning category, i don't know btw them, and Maggi who has the upper hand.
In summary, i think the market is impressed with the results bcos a lot of pple are not aware of the the history with Unilever so it won't be a bad idea to hold on to your shares but i can assure you that 2008 will be a challenge for them. In the long term, growth for Unilever ain't gonna be easy.
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Old 26th November 2007, 11:32 PM
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I agree with APACHE, even with an estimated 1.4 FYE, the EPS would stand at 1.4/3.7=0.37 . Est value based on this, is approx 0.37x20=7.4 approx 8.0 naira. My opinion is that this stock is way over valued not unless there exist a prospect for bonus ( which would be suicidal). For unilever to maintain the current price an earning above 4b should achieve this. Is this Possible? Very unlikely.

Last edited by ABALI; 26th November 2007 at 11:35 PM. Reason: error
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Old 27th November 2007, 12:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Apache View Post
@C Kenneth
I guess i have to disagree with you on this one. i am trying to be open minded here considering the fact that Unilever are direct competitors with the company i work for in one of our key categories.
what you have seen in Unilever's 3rd quarter result is a correction of the issue they had last year which was mainly accumulation of debts by their key distributors i.e Unilever were selling goods to their distributors on credit thereby accumulating huge debts which ran the company into a loss position (along with other problems due to poor management etc). Basically it seems that they have rectified this issue - remember they also laid off staff.
so right now, it is looking as if their growth is phenomenal compared to last year.
but if you compare this same result to their 3rd quarter of 2005, you will see that they were almost stagnant. their TO in 2005 was =N=24.6b compared to their current TO which is =N=26.5.
their PAT in 2005 was =N=1.46b compared to current PAT of =N=1.1b.
Unilever is facing very stiff competition in all their key categories. We have Ariel in their detergent category, Macleans in the toothpaste category, and as for soap - their key brand (Lux) has been losing market share since last year (they just lost their 2nd position of the soap market to competition recently).as regards the seasoning category, i don't know btw them, and Maggi who has the upper hand.
In summary, i think the market is impressed with the results bcos a lot of pple are not aware of the the history with Unilever so it won't be a bad idea to hold on to your shares but i can assure you that 2008 will be a challenge for them. In the long term, growth for Unilever ain't gonna be easy.
Nice post Apache, I agree you might be very correct about your comparisons to Unilever's last year comparative performance which seems to make this years results seem too great.

My thinking is that the fact that they even came back to declare any results at all is commendable, or how many companies have returned to profitability so soon after experiencing those type of losses.

The TO is marginal, but that is still a marginal INCREASE compared to last yr.

My main area of disagreement is in the product market shares, you are right to mention stiff competition in the Unilever product line, but who doesn't have stiff competition? Iwill also like to remark that unilever brands are far more popular than most brands in the market.

You cannot tell me macleans is competing with close up! hey, I use these things and can tell you from a buyers perspective. Knoor cubes outsell Maggi 3 to 1. Omo? still the leader, prices is another thing.

Unilever is still leading, waiting for your response.
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Old 27th November 2007, 01:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c kenneths View Post
Nice post Apache, I agree you might be very correct about your comparisons to Unilever's last year comparative performance which seems to make this years results seem too great.

My thinking is that the fact that they even came back to declare any results at all is commendable, or how many companies have returned to profitability so soon after experiencing those type of losses.

The TO is marginal, but that is still a marginal INCREASE compared to last yr.

My main area of disagreement is in the product market shares, you are right to mention stiff competition in the Unilever product line, but who doesn't have stiff competition? Iwill also like to remark that unilever brands are far more popular than most brands in the market.

You cannot tell me macleans is competing with close up! hey, I use these things and can tell you from a buyers perspective. Knoor cubes outsell Maggi 3 to 1. Omo? still the leader, prices is another thing.

Unilever is still leading, waiting for your response.
Well, look at it this way.

you will agree with me that Unilever's operates in categories that are almost if not saturated. If you look at Toothpaste, majority of households already use it, if you look at soaps, majority of households already use soaps same with seasoning. you will also agree that Unilever has major market shares in the categories they operate in. I am sure they are the leaders in Oral care with Close-up, I don't think they are the leaders in seasoning with Knorr but i know that they command a major share.
Now my point is that in a category that is saturated, if a new entrant comes in and is making any sales, that means either of 2 things. he is getting new people who weren't using any form of his product before to start using it or 2. he is stealing his sales from his competitors which is most likely the major players within that category. Now scenario 1 will only happen when a category is not saturated i.e there is still enough room for growth of both the new entrant and already existing competitors. so for toothpaste category, scenaripo one will only occur if there are a lot of people not using toothpaste in nigeria. but scenario 2 will occur if the category in which the products operate is already saturated i.e everyone/ almost everyone uses a product so it depends on which particular one i intend to use. In other words, anytime macleans or darbur makes a sale, it is a potential close-up consumer that makes a shift. i.e any of Unilever's competitors gain is Unilever's loss. i am focussing more on toothpaste for unilever bcos as at 2005, Close was contributing abt 60% to Unilever's total TO.
This is not comparable with some other categories like the Noodles category where the number of people that don't eat noodles is still very high therefore room for growth for both Indomie and competitors is still very high without any of them eroding their market share. Another category is the telecoms where there so much room for growth because the category is not saturated.
But look at the categories where Unilever operates in and tell me if you see any room for growth in these categories and where this growth will come from. This is what i meant by stiff competition which like i had highlighted is nopt same with what you see in the telecoms sector or noodles etc. But enough of all this boring marketing 101 lecture.

You say it is commendable that after reporting a loss, that they were able to come back, but i can assure you that Unilever's problem was more of an internal issue which was caused by poor management but it wasn't life threatening. As you can recall, they had to call in Bob clarke who was a former MD of unilever Nigeria to sort out the issue because he was the one that put the structure in palce in the first place.

As regards the "Marginal" INCREASE over 2005, I can assure you that the price at which any of Unilever brands be it Close up or Lux was sold in 2005 is lower than what it was sold for now. that means that the marginal TO increase you are seeing might be as a result of price increases on their products within the last year. In other words, if i sold 1,000 close-up @ =N=100 in a year. If i sell the same quantity at =N=120, i will be making a 20% increase in my TO. but imagine if i had sold more quantities say 1,200 @ =N=120 will give me a 40% increase. In other words. it's highly possible that Unilever's growth was due to increased price and not increased volumes. Now increasing of price is short term growth strategy and not long term bcos you can't be increasing the price of your product every year. So a better route for long term growth is increased volumes of product sold which links me back to my earlier argument on saturation of categories which they operate in so increased volumes will be a big challenge

As regards the technicals, i think ABALI has covered that in his post looking at the EPS etc
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Old 27th November 2007, 01:49 PM
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Just wanted to add this.
In the short term, i see the stock price rising due to the "good" results but on the long term, i recommend a sell. my reasons for that are clearly highlighted in previous posts
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Old 27th November 2007, 02:06 PM
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The picture is getting clearer now. I can understand your angle from the saturation point of view, but looking at it another way, there are villages I know that use ordinary chewing sticks (no jokes) and the folks I am thinking of here is around 40% of Nigerians who live in interior villages, donít you think that with a good marketing strategy, unilever could have increased their sales and therefore turnover. You may ask me why these people will want to swap their wooden chewing sticks for toothpaste. Style changes, income increased, etc.

We learn everyday, so no knowledge is unimportant. The important thing is that the company has solid, working structures on the ground and any serious shortfall in fundamentals could be easily addressed by adding a variant in their product line or repackaging existing products.

Also remember that in the consumer goods sector, where unilever operates is ever changing, just like any other sector. This will bring in opportunities to add new products and remove any that is not very profitable. Example of this will happen if unilever decides to bottle water. This product can never be saturated in the market as a hot sunny day on a major Lagos highway hold up will confirm. We will never stop drinking water, now or in the future.

I do not think I will sell my unilever stock based on any market fluctuations, I am of the opinion that it will always return to good profits after every time it declines, at least in the medium term. This is one of the good ones.

I am enjoying this exchange of perspectives. Keep it up.
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Old 27th November 2007, 03:43 PM
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Well, every FMCG company has it's strategy and that the overlying strategy is not your products to be everywhere but rather to be in places where people that can afford your product and do have a need for your product can be found. This is because every distribution has it's cost.
Now the question i will ask is the so called 40% of Nigerians that live in the interior villages or use chewing sticks, are they aware of what toothpaste are? if the answer is Yes, then why are they not using it. Is it because of Cost or availability. If it is because of availability, then an opportunity presents itself for the company. but if it because of cost, i can assure you that no amount of marketing will make you succeed there bcos they can't afford it.You will agree with me that Close up is a premium product (I mean =N=150 is no joke. (mind you that it might even be more expensive in the interior villages because transporting it there has its own cost implication.

as regards consumer good sector been an ever changing one, ask yourself when was the last time Unilever launched a new product for a new category? We might hope for a lot of "what ifs" but if you look at the past, then you might be able to tell what the future might look like.
On a last note, take a look at Unilever globally, you will find out that the company is struggling in terms of growth.

Anywayz, to close this, one of the reasons for this forum is to get as much information as possible of any company before anyone makes a buy or sell decision. I think i have been able to give my own view in such a way that one who is going in or out of the stock might have a clearer picture of what he/she is doing.
I wish you best luck but i think i will let Unilever pass.
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Old 28th November 2007, 12:33 AM
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Default My Strategy

My investment strategy considers stocks like Unilever very unattractive.To further clarify, a 1 million investment, can translate to 13.7million merely by selecting 10 consecutive stocks with a potential of 30% appreciation in price (ffing inclusion of cost of transaction) within a period of 1-3 months. The strategy is to empty and buy into a new stock with such a potential. Compounding will see your investment grow by 13.7 times in 10 consecutive such investment. For me UNILEVER is unlikely to provide such an appreciation. PZ results, equally raises doubts as to the business environment being conducive for such expectations. Just incase you asked, 10 consecutive transaction is possible in 2-3 years. Stocks with the greatest prospect to appreciate by this factor say in the next 1-2 months are C & I leasing and J au paul.

It is said....The mind and the parachute have something in common..they work better when open.
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Old 27th February 2008, 08:56 PM
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This was a wonderful discussion; a really good read. Impressive lines of thought and maturity on display from both Apache and c Kenneth.
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Old 18th March 2008, 06:35 PM
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Well, I think the Full Year results have spoken for themselves. But i know pple will still have made money from this stock considering that it hit a low of about =N=12 last year.
however, what looks interesting is the increase in Turnover. It will be interesting to see how their 1st quarter results looks like
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Old 8th May 2008, 04:35 PM
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Default is this a rally?

For the past days, unilever has added 4.8-5% consecutively, please whats driving this rally? cos its not that the result was so wonderful. i personally believe that people are using this down-time 2 cash in on a good stock that has been tru alot but is now turning to back to profitability
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