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  #881 (permalink)  
Old 30th March 2017, 02:28 PM
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Default Re: Aiico

Quote:
Originally Posted by nosa2 View Post
The result doesn't add up. It seems other comprehensive income (loss) wasn't added to the calculation.
AIICO's financials is a bit complicated. As a major life insurance company, there are 2 non cash items that are significantly affected by prevailing interest rates that affect the financials of AIICO substantially. The first is aiico's holdings of government bonds that is huge. AIICO is obliged to hold these bonds to match against its life insurance liabilities. When interest rates go up, the carrying values of the bonds go down. The devaluation effect is what you see on the other comprehensive profit or loss. Because AIICO will most likely hold these bonds to maturity and therefore not sustain any case loss, this devaluation will not affect it's calculation of EPs. The devaluation will reverse on the liquidation of the bonds on maturity. The second is provision for life insurance liabilities. This behaves in reverse to government bonds assets. When interest rates go up, the liability reduces. The difference here is that AIICO passes the effect of the liability revaluation through the main profit and loss statement. In 2015 when the CBN reduced interest on bonds by 4.5 basis points in the last quarter, AIICO charged N16 billion against its profit and loss for the life insurance liabilities revaluation. It appears that in 2016 financials, at least N6 billion of this has been written back to the income statement. I think that to the extent that these assets and liabilities are directly related, the assets are actually hedges against the liabilities, their revaluation effects go in opposite directions and should be netted off against each other.
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  #882 (permalink)  
Old 31st March 2017, 10:11 AM
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Default Re: Aiico

Quote:
Originally Posted by dupeodus View Post
AIICO's financials is a bit complicated. As a major life insurance company, there are 2 non cash items that are significantly affected by prevailing interest rates that affect the financials of AIICO substantially. The first is aiico's holdings of government bonds that is huge. AIICO is obliged to hold these bonds to match against its life insurance liabilities. When interest rates go up, the carrying values of the bonds go down. The devaluation effect is what you see on the other comprehensive profit or loss. Because AIICO will most likely hold these bonds to maturity and therefore not sustain any case loss, this devaluation will not affect it's calculation of EPs. The devaluation will reverse on the liquidation of the bonds on maturity. The second is provision for life insurance liabilities. This behaves in reverse to government bonds assets. When interest rates go up, the liability reduces. The difference here is that AIICO passes the effect of the liability revaluation through the main profit and loss statement. In 2015 when the CBN reduced interest on bonds by 4.5 basis points in the last quarter, AIICO charged N16 billion against its profit and loss for the life insurance liabilities revaluation. It appears that in 2016 financials, at least N6 billion of this has been written back to the income statement. I think that to the extent that these assets and liabilities are directly related, the assets are actually hedges against the liabilities, their revaluation effects go in opposite directions and should be netted off against each other.
Thanks Bros, I guessed there were some items being offset against each other, just didn't know what they were or how to discount them in the Profit and Loss account. Would have preferred they remain balance sheet items.
This your incisive explanation gives me an idea of what to discount.
I will look out for similar in NEM. AIICO is still one of my current darling stocks by the way.

Last edited by duduspace; 31st March 2017 at 10:13 AM.
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  #883 (permalink)  
Old 31st March 2017, 11:17 AM
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Default Re: Aiico

Quote:
Originally Posted by dupeodus View Post
AIICO's financials is a bit complicated. As a major life insurance company, there are 2 non cash items that are significantly affected by prevailing interest rates that affect the financials of AIICO substantially. The first is aiico's holdings of government bonds that is huge. AIICO is obliged to hold these bonds to match against its life insurance liabilities. When interest rates go up, the carrying values of the bonds go down. The devaluation effect is what you see on the other comprehensive profit or loss. Because AIICO will most likely hold these bonds to maturity and therefore not sustain any case loss, this devaluation will not affect it's calculation of EPs. The devaluation will reverse on the liquidation of the bonds on maturity. The second is provision for life insurance liabilities. This behaves in reverse to government bonds assets. When interest rates go up, the liability reduces. The difference here is that AIICO passes the effect of the liability revaluation through the main profit and loss statement. In 2015 when the CBN reduced interest on bonds by 4.5 basis points in the last quarter, AIICO charged N16 billion against its profit and loss for the life insurance liabilities revaluation. It appears that in 2016 financials, at least N6 billion of this has been written back to the income statement. I think that to the extent that these assets and liabilities are directly related, the assets are actually hedges against the liabilities, their revaluation effects go in opposite directions and should be netted off against each other.
You are very spot on Bro. May be you work in the insurance sector. ☺

The AFS losses are the resultant effect of marking to market the FGN Bonds and other assets backing the insurance liabilities, annuity in particular.

Not a real loss of course, if interest rates trend southwards, the negative N14bn could easily turn positive and represent value accretion to shareholders.
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  #884 (permalink)  
Old 31st March 2017, 01:26 PM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by duduspace View Post
Thanks Bros, I guessed there were some items being offset against each other, just didn't know what they were or how to discount them in the Profit and Loss account. Would have preferred they remain balance sheet items.
This your incisive explanation gives me an idea of what to discount.
I will look out for similar in NEM. AIICO is still one of my current darling stocks by the way.
Oga Dudu, it is not applicable to NEM, NEM is not a life insurance company. They do only general insurance.
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  #885 (permalink)  
Old 31st March 2017, 01:43 PM
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Default Re: Aiico

Quote:
Originally Posted by afolabi27 View Post
You are very spot on Bro. May be you work in the insurance sector. ☺

The AFS losses are the resultant effect of marking to market the FGN Bonds and other assets backing the insurance liabilities, annuity in particular.

Not a real loss of course, if interest rates trend southwards, the negative N14bn could easily turn positive and represent value accretion to shareholders.
No, oga. I do not work in the insurance sector. I am however an accountant, though not practicing, and I take interest in the financials of the companies I am invested, AIICO being one of them. The effect of what AIICO is doing is to unnecessarily reduce the capital funds shown on its balance sheet. The low dividend payout is a direct consequence of this. Must have been at the insistence of NAICOM because the capital funds keep reducing because of this item. I do not know what informed the classification of those bonds as AFS assets instead of HTM assets because they are essentially hedges against annuities. Sometime, application of the accounting standards could be an ass and misleading especially in a volatile economy like Nigeria's. Unfortunately, Nigerian analysts evaluating companies are mostly not sophisticated enough to see these nuances. A case in point was the first time revaluation of biological assets by Pressco and Okomu a few years ago which caused them to report high profit and their stock values went to the roof. Anyone who truly understands accounting knows that will not repeat going forward and will sell the stock. The reverse is happening with AIICO.
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  #886 (permalink)  
Old 31st March 2017, 02:19 PM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by dupeodus View Post
No, oga. I do not work in the insurance sector. I am however an accountant, though not practicing, and I take interest in the financials of the companies I am invested, AIICO being one of them. The effect of what AIICO is doing is to unnecessarily reduce the capital funds shown on its balance sheet. The low dividend payout is a direct consequence of this. Must have been at the insistence of NAICOM because the capital funds keep reducing because of this item. I do not know what informed the classification of those bonds as AFS assets instead of HTM assets because they are essentially hedges against annuities. Sometime, application of the accounting standards could be an ass and misleading especially in a volatile economy like Nigeria's. Unfortunately, Nigerian analysts evaluating companies are mostly not sophisticated enough to see these nuances. A case in point was the first time revaluation of biological assets by Pressco and Okomu a few years ago which caused them to report high profit and their stock values went to the roof. Anyone who truly understands accounting knows that will not repeat going forward and will sell the stock. The reverse is happening with AIICO.
I forgot to mention in my last post that AIICO does not help itself in it's financial reporting. In the cash flow statement for instance, AIICO included investment income of N7.2 billion in the financing activities section. The life insurance business of AIICO is generating liabilities from life insurance contracts and investing same to earn income.This is their basic operation. What AIICO has done is like a bank including interest income and expenses in the Financing Activities section of the cash flow statement. If you adjust for this anormally, it means AIICO generated about N9.4 billion cash from its 2016 operation. That is why the company could buy another N9 billion assets without a significant increase in it's insurance contract liabilities. All things put together, this is a solid life insurance operation going on. I am aware though that this is fuelled by the government insurance of the lives of civil servants and there is always a significant risk attached to Nigerian government business.
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  #887 (permalink)  
Old 31st March 2017, 03:46 PM
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Default Re: Aiico

Quote:
Originally Posted by dupeodus View Post
No, oga. I do not work in the insurance sector. I am however an accountant, though not practicing, and I take interest in the financials of the companies I am invested, AIICO being one of them. The effect of what AIICO is doing is to unnecessarily reduce the capital funds shown on its balance sheet. The low dividend payout is a direct consequence of this. Must have been at the insistence of NAICOM because the capital funds keep reducing because of this item. I do not know what informed the classification of those bonds as AFS assets instead of HTM assets because they are essentially hedges against annuities. Sometime, application of the accounting standards could be an ass and misleading especially in a volatile economy like Nigeria's. Unfortunately, Nigerian analysts evaluating companies are mostly not sophisticated enough to see these nuances. A case in point was the first time revaluation of biological assets by Pressco and Okomu a few years ago which caused them to report high profit and their stock values went to the roof. Anyone who truly understands accounting knows that will not repeat going forward and will sell the stock. The reverse is happening with AIICO.
opposite of sell is buy.
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  #888 (permalink)  
Old 31st March 2017, 04:12 PM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by sola12 View Post
opposite of sell is buy.
You get the gist. I hope it remains at this depressed level till I get my expected naira cash.
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  #889 (permalink)  
Old 31st March 2017, 07:49 PM
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Default Re: Aiico

Quote:
Originally Posted by dupeodus View Post
No, oga. I do not work in the insurance sector. I am however an accountant, though not practicing, and I take interest in the financials of the companies I am invested, AIICO being one of them. The effect of what AIICO is doing is to unnecessarily reduce the capital funds shown on its balance sheet. The low dividend payout is a direct consequence of this. Must have been at the insistence of NAICOM because the capital funds keep reducing because of this item. I do not know what informed the classification of those bonds as AFS assets instead of HTM assets because they are essentially hedges against annuities. Sometime, application of the accounting standards could be an ass and misleading especially in a volatile economy like Nigeria's. Unfortunately, Nigerian analysts evaluating companies are mostly not sophisticated enough to see these nuances. A case in point was the first time revaluation of biological assets by Pressco and Okomu a few years ago which caused them to report high profit and their stock values went to the roof. Anyone who truly understands accounting knows that will not repeat going forward and will sell the stock. The reverse is happening with AIICO.
You are spot on again. The only bit I will add is to address what informed the classification as AFS (or FVTPL) rather than as HTM. You will agree that the annuity and other insurance contract liabilities are subject to actuarial valuation, and a major determinant of the resultant valuation is the market interest rate.

Allowing the assets backing up the insurance liabilities to reflect the same sensitivities to market interest rates as the liabilities, remove the effect of volatility from the income statement.

Having said that, HTM is also becoming very unpopular, many users of financial statements (including deal makers) are more comfortable with information that reflect fair values particular in an open tradeable market.
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  #890 (permalink)  
Old 31st March 2017, 07:52 PM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by dupeodus View Post
You get the gist. I hope it remains at this depressed level till I get my expected naira cash.
...well, I bought my traditional "2,000" units today.
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  #891 (permalink)  
Old 31st March 2017, 10:15 PM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by afolabi27 View Post
...well, I bought my traditional "2,000" units today.
Good to see old members returning to the forum. Welcome
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  #892 (permalink)  
Old 31st March 2017, 11:12 PM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by shigidi View Post
Good to see old members returning to the forum. Welcome
Yep, Missed this place. Lets hope we don't return back to political banter
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  #893 (permalink)  
Old 1st April 2017, 12:01 AM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by afolabi27 View Post
...well, I bought my traditional "2,000" units today.
So bros you don quickly forget wetin STI do you?
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  #894 (permalink)  
Old 1st April 2017, 04:25 AM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by Valuefront View Post
So bros you don quickly forget wetin STI do you?
Abeg Sir, what is STI
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  #895 (permalink)  
Old 1st April 2017, 09:46 AM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by Valuefront View Post
So bros you don quickly forget wetin STI do you?
Aaaaah, my brother, we win some, we lose some, but we become better with the knowledge.

AIICO appears to be a lot better than STI to be honest, I'm also a better person at analysing financials particularly insurance companies.
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Old 1st April 2017, 09:48 AM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by shigidi View Post
Good to see old members returning to the forum. Welcome
Yeah, we hope we keep SMN strictly SMN. 😀
I missed you Bro.
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  #897 (permalink)  
Old 1st April 2017, 10:17 AM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by Valuefront View Post
So bros you don quickly forget wetin STI do you?
And Skye Bank.....
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  #898 (permalink)  
Old 1st April 2017, 10:33 AM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by mecatchcha View Post
And Skye Bank.....
what of Japaul, Chai !!!! all these things dey pain person
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Old 1st April 2017, 03:25 PM
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Default Re: Aiico

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Originally Posted by arostuff View Post
what of Japaul, Chai !!!! all these things dey pain person
Japaul, my dear Japaul
Vodoo company. Jegede surely must now be ranked along with Jimoh Ibrahim in the art of killing companies with good prospects. Japaul was once the diamond in the rough.
We live and learn Bros, every Oga here must have one scar or the other. What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger.
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