MarketWatch

[nosa2]

Originally Posted by cashrules

Yes, I totally agree with you sir! Stock Markets are only a mirror of the wider economy, so as economy crashes, so must Stock Markets!
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No sir!!! I dont agree with you here....You were there hen banks were manipulating their books and borrowing for EDW to pay dividends!!
You were also there when Banks were using depositors funds in their share purchase schemes to prop up theuir share prices......

In all Why is Soludo so fast to tell the truth about stock markets now?. In 2007 at the beggining of the meltdown he went about telling every one that Nigeria was immune to any financial meltdown.

Granted all markets must crash but this our last crash was totally avoidable cause it was caused by fraudulent practices and a corrupt CBN

[wanaj0]

Nosa, great insight. What you see is that you do a lot of 'analysis' unconsciously even without you knowing. It's obvious that earnings is not the only thing you consider. People will do well to listen to you because there will be many who are of your 'type'

Back to dividends, nothing bad in paying out dividends. Most companies actually have a dividend policy. There is a school of thought in game theory that believe dividend is a signal that you can use to understand and predict a company. Nothing wrong in payment of dividends for as long as you comply with dividend policy.

There are those that think payment of dividend indicate lack of ambition (no growth opportunities). There are those that also believe that dividend payment keeps the shareholders (institutional shareholders) happy and interested. It will be bad IF the payment of dividend is affecting the smooth operation of the company.

There was a time when Ashaka's interest income was more than the operating profit. They had huge cash reserve which was losing value due to depreciation of the Naira. At the end they declared a special dividend to the shareholders

Originally Posted by nosa2

You make a good point and I've now gone from I disagree to agree and disagree, obviously I use other "common sense" tools in making my decisions but those tools all try to answer the all important question, how does this affect future earnings.

I sold okomu because I couldn't concentrate on it due to liquidity and I just didn't feel comfortable holding a stock that I couldn't exit quickly. A good example of the kind of common sense analysis I do is one I'm doing right now on japul, great p.e ratio, excellent cash flow but as someone mentioned here, think it was oracle, the owner has every reason to keep the stock price low. So I guess corporate governance is an issue I take into consideration.

Now all these other analytical tools people are using actually work and are very relevant in a normal market, but this isn't a normal market, this is a severely depressed market and right now the only thing that works besides insider information is earnings. Obviously earnings and cash-flow go hand in hand but what I'm not comfortable with is people calculating cash-flow with a view of dividends. The emphasis on dividends in this country is one of our biggest problems and I believe it's caused by the regulators and misinformed stockbrokers.

Few years ago in the middle of the banking crisis FBN paid out dividends from reserves, this in my opinion was probably the most legally stupid thing any corporate entity has ever done in this country, It was done to keep the market excited about the elephant but was a destruction of value for their shareholders in terms of opportunity costs.

Foreign bluechip stocks pay out a fixed amount as dividends because they have huge cash reserves, are dominant global players in matured industries and even at that what they payout is usually 2-3% of earnings unlike our companies that are so eager to give out cash irrespective of the opportunity cost.

Anyway this thread is for folks looking for brokers and I assume majority would be new investors and might find these discussions useful. My advise to them is don't listen to me but listen to the others while placing more emphasis on earnings.

[knightofdelta]

Ladies and gentlemen,

I am at the Rencap Conference and will provide realtime update on my twitter account. you can follow me to receive the update on twitter @knightofdelta. I will be using the hash tag #Rencap.

i am still beefing Fashola about the way he went about handling the doctor's strike but I would definitely buy Lagos if it were a stock.

[cashrules]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

Ladies and gentlemen,

I am at the Rencap Conference and will provide realtime update on my twitter account. you can follow me to receive the update on twitter @knightofdelta. I will be using the hash tag #Rencap.

i am still beefing Fashola about the way he went about handling the doctor's strike but I would definitely buy Lagos if it were a stock.

Abeg, What is the Rencap conference meant to be about?

Are they about to buy the exchange?

[eniyanman]

Originally Posted by cashrules

Yes, I totally agree with you sir! Stock Markets are only a mirror of the wider economy, so as economy crashes, so must Stock Markets!




No sir!!! I dont agree with you here....You were there when banks were manipulating their books and borrowing from EDW to pay dividends!!
You were also there when Banks were using depositors funds in their share purchase schemes to prop up their share prices......

In all Why is Soludo so fast to tell the truth about stock markets now?. In 2007 at the beggining of the meltdown he went about telling every one that Nigeria was immune to any financial meltdown...If we were in a developed world he should be in a jail if he cannot explain the source of the over N3B he spent in pursuing the Anambra state governorship elections.....

Exactly.
The principal causes of our market crash:
1. Poor regulation and oversight by CBN. Banks were effectively raising capital to prop up their share price through excessive exposure to margin loans.
2. NSE/SEC turned a blind eye to share price manipulation. Companies which hadn't presented results for years suddenly became top price movers.

While stock market bubbles cannot always be prevented, our last crash was largely avoidable (or the crash won't have been as severe as it was if the bubble had not been as inflated as it was). Soludo has to share the blame for this.

#RewritingHistory

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by cashrules

Abeg, What is the Rencap conference meant to be about?

Are they about to buy the exchange?

Pan Africa Investor conference

[laso]

Originally Posted by wanaj0

Just doing mind rubbing like Amodu was doing with SE players

Back to earnings, the earning is PAST. One of the sayings of investing is that past performance is not guarantee for future performance (except for UBA's exceptional item) . But here you are using the past to predict the future. What else do you look at to assure yourself that the PAST performance will continue into the future? What else do you look at to give you confidence that the earnings will continue? What if the earnings is from them disposing of their assets which means that soon there may be no money to be made again?

Do you consider dividend yield at all?

I do consider dividend yield, historical & forward pe &price 2 book ualue. I pay more emphasis on these 3 to make sure i dont pay too much price for any stock. I also take into consideration d bussiness line of d company and issue of coorperate governance. Learning how 2 use cashflow now and want 2 continue 2 learn....

[emmanuel ewumi]

Originally Posted by Salida

There is always a window of opportunity that surfaces at certain times in life. That window of opportunity occurred to virtually all the blue chips on NSE in 2008. While the foreign investors were dumping shares of heavy weights like NB,Guinness,Flourmill,Nestle,etc some were busy mopping it up. Some of those foreign investors(including Nigerians in Diaspora) are gradually strolling back and are sitting on those blue chips big time while some people are either still complaining of the fortune they lost or celebrating the short gains they made.
That opportunity surfaced again in the banking industry when SLS came onboard in 2009.

The stock market is not for short term players. Hope and plan that you are not cash strapped when such opportunities surface again in your lifetime and that your acquired knowledge in Security analysis(learnt from the collaborative efforts of all on SMN) will distinguish your investment judgements.

That is why i said one should have multiple streams of income, so that one will not sell at the the wrong. Other streams of income will definitely give the staying power when the stock market is not doing fine.

[dr.abrahamb]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

Ladies and gentlemen,

I am at the Rencap Conference and will provide realtime update on my twitter account. you can follow me to receive the update on twitter @knightofdelta. I will be using the hash tag #Rencap.

i am still beefing Fashola about the way he went about handling the doctor's strike but I would definitely buy Lagos if it were a stock.

My Oga, following your tweet enh, just make me feel like switching professions.

About Fashola, do you know the same BRF who criticized the FG for using soldiers to disperse 'occupyNigeria' supporters, actually used armed-policemen to force the letters of sack on the doctors during one of their meetings, called for by LASG? I learned the doctors were all rounded up in the meeting venue set up by the LASG, the place was barricaded, and the letters 'dropped' on them. The policemen threatened to shoot any one of them who tries to have a scuffle with them, in attempt to leave the meeting venue. This happened right inside the hospital I learned.

I now see the true colour of the so-called opposition. I regret voting ACN at all but one level in the last elections.

[realvenc]

Originally Posted by eniyanman

Exactly.
The principal causes of our market crash:
1. Poor regulation and oversight by CBN. Banks were effectively raising capital to prop up their share price through excessive exposure to margin loans.
2. NSE/SEC turned a blind eye to share price manipulation. Companies which hadn't presented results for years suddenly became top price movers.

While stock market bubbles cannot always be prevented, our last crash was largely avoidable (or the crash won't have been as severe as it was if the bubble had not been as inflated as it was). Soludo has to share the blame for this.

#RewritingHistory

The statements by Former CBN governor is like telling the relatives of a Man who just died out of the obvious Carelessness, Negligence or incompetence of the Medical personnel on whose care the sick dead man was under that ''Death is Inevitable''.

This goes to confirm the trend that Our leaders and public office holders seem to believe that they can come out, say anything, do anything, steal anything and get away with it.
As long as this trend continues, as long as the younger upcoming generation are watching this, then we as a Nation WILL NOT get anywhere.

The Massive corruption and failure witnessed in the Banking Industry then is an indictment and Bigger of the regulator CBN
Same with the NSE, SECOND failed and investors lost huge sums.

Why should justify their actions or inactions in the view of the mess the financial sector found was in. And we are not yet out of it.

We can't always get it right or be the best particularly when it comes to leadership roles. But Africans particularly Nigerian should learn to be more Accountable, Transparent and Responsible with their actions.

[Salida]

SEC Seals Deal with Mauritius’ FSC, Articles | THISDAY LIVE

[emmanuel ewumi]

Originally Posted by wanaj0

There are many sophisticated tools that is used to predict market trend. Unfortunately, must of those tools have inbuilt assumptions. Major one is assuming a perfect market which we know does not exist anywhere.

Very few people have the strength, discipline and tenacity to time the market without allowing their emotions to take a better of them. That's why I would rather buy based on fundamentals.

I do sell stocks when I consider them over valued (sold almost all my Flour Mills for example) but most times I keep my holdings. I've sold stocks that I considered over valued only for the market to think otherwise. I've also bought stocks that I considered undervalued only to find out that I was wrong.

Overall, you will win some and lose some. Objective is to make your winners to be much more than your losers. Your strategy will depend on your age, risk profile, portfolio size and your type of investor.

If you have N1bn to invest, I doubt whether Ike Hotels, Okomu etc will get a look from you. So there is no formular that fits all.

If there is anything, you need to know yourself (type of investor and risk profile). That is very key. Also dont believe the analysts. Like car sellers, they have hidden agendas. You are also better off looking at stocks that is not currently 'hot'. That way you enter ahead of the crowd.

That said, TIME is of great benefit in this business!

How many investors have the patience,emotional maturity and confidence to focus on stocks that are currently not hot. The few ones who can do these, have a higher probability to emerge as winners in the stock market.

[emmanuel ewumi]

Originally Posted by nosa2

Sorry, when I say earnings I mean a linear forward projection based on quarterly earning and more emphasis is placed on the third quarter than the first.

As per earnings not telling the full story… I totally disagree, nothing tells me more about a company than it's turnover and profits, obviously I'd discount exceptional items like sale of assets. So to me all this board room squabbles are good, investors like you are looking at them and dumping while I'm looking at the people staying in their hotels (earnings) and buying. I'm expecting ikeja hotels to do 0.60k eps and at the current price I don't care if boardroom members are hunting each other with AK47's I'm buying of course if the numbers weren't as attractive I won't touch it.

As for dividends, I hate them but I understand their effect in the Nigerian market so I factor them in but I won't buy FBN long term because of their dividend policy and I'm very much willing to hold CCNN because if theirs.

Why do you hate dividend? I love dividend paying companies, provided they retained part of the profit which they can use for the expansion of the business. If Union Bank had not paid dividend and was reinvesting all her profits into the business, i would have been a big loser by now. But the dividend received over the years, reduced my loss in Union bank.

[cashrules]

Abeg who has seen today's price list...I usually use TRW stockbrokers but its not updated by this time which is quite unusual...

TRW Stockbrokers Ltd. A member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange

[Salida]

Originally Posted by cashrules

Abeg who has seen today's price list...I usually use TRW stockbrokers but its not updated by this time which is quite unusual...

TRW Stockbrokers Ltd. A member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange

Most sites don't have an update of today's price yet, but if you go to the official NSE website, you will see today's price scrolling across the page.

[netotse]

Originally Posted by Salida

Most sites don't have an update of today's price yet, but if you go to the official NSE website, you will see today's price scrolling across the page.

APT gets theirs online pretty fast

APT Securities & Funds Limited | Research

[Salida]

Originally Posted by netotse

APT gets theirs online pretty fast

APT Securities & Funds Limited | Research

Sir Netotse, there are some inconsistencies in the price list on APT site and the one listed on the official NSE site. Which one is more authentic?

[nosa2]

Originally Posted by emmanuel ewumi

Why do you hate dividend? I love dividend paying companies, provided they retained part of the profit which they can use for the expansion of the business. If Union Bank had not paid dividend and was reinvesting all her profits into the business, i would have been a big loser by now. But the dividend received over the years, reduced my loss in Union bank.

Berkshire hathaway, a company that has probably created the most wealth for it's shareholders in the past two decades, has never paid out a dividend since expansion. Apple, the most valuable company on the planet paid out it's first dividend last year and despite having surplus cash only had a dividend yield of about 3%. So in my opinion/observation companies that retain earnings in order to grow or acquire competitors are likely to create more wealth for their shareholders than companies that just think short term.

As fir your claim on Union bank, you have no way to know that you ended up with the better alternative. They could probably have made you richer if they conserved cash and acquired a bank in Greece or Iceland. Abi fo our banks forbid making acquisitions outside Africa.

[Salida]

Originally Posted by nosa2

Berkshire hathaway, a company that has probably created the most wealth for it's shareholders in the past two decades, has never paid out a dividend since expansion. Apple, the most valuable company on the planet paid out it's first dividend last year and despite having surplus cash only had a dividend yield of about 3%. So in my opinion/observation companies that retain earnings in order to grow or acquire competitors are likely to create more wealth for their shareholders than companies that just think short term.

As fir your claim on Union bank, you have no way to know that you ended up with the better alternative. They could probably have made you richer if they conserved cash and acquired a bank in Greece or Iceland. Abi fo our banks forbid making acquisitions outside Africa.

Thought this discussion had been moved to the MarketWatch Thread. Anyway, let me chip in another insight-When you calculate dividend yield, do you use the price you as the Investor bought the stock(after diligent tradoforecasting like Sir Baoto) or the pravailing price in the market at the time of declaration of the dividend?
Have you thought of it that some savvy investors actually use equities as a store of value just as some people invest in gold or arts despite the volatility of stocks?
Reinvestment of some profits for expansion is a good strategy, however there are other benefits for shareholders of companies that have good dividend payout policies.
Some shareholders in some advanced markets actually use different sources of income to balance their tax liabilities which varies from country to country.

While the dividend yield might be 3% for some Investors, it might be higher for some based on the price they paid for the stock.
Price is what you pay, value is what you get. As for me I believe in value for my money. There are lots of strategies to get value for your money which I believe you are well vast in.
While everyone has their own Investment strategies depending on their risk appetite, those companies you mentioned are in advanced markets with the tax rates, volume of transactions and value not comparable to what we have in an emerging market like the NSE.

[emmanuel ewumi]

Originally Posted by nosa2

Berkshire hathaway, a company that has probably created the most wealth for it's shareholders in the past two decades, has never paid out a dividend since expansion. Apple, the most valuable company on the planet paid out it's first dividend last year and despite having surplus cash only had a dividend yield of about 3%. So in my opinion/observation companies that retain earnings in order to grow or acquire competitors are likely to create more wealth for their shareholders than companies that just think short term.

As fir your claim on Union bank, you have no way to know that you ended up with the better alternative. They could probably have made you richer if they conserved cash and acquired a bank in Greece or Iceland. Abi fo our banks forbid making acquisitions outside Africa.

Intercontinental always reinvested a large chunk of its profit, for future acquisition and expansion, what is the current state of intercontinental as we speak. It is a dead company. Your dividend is the return on your investment. Nobody can stop an investor on how to invest his dividend. I used the dividend i collected last year to complete my house, and the remaining was used to buy another plot of land. The house is now rented out, and the rent was used to buy more stocks.
At times small investors that are enterpreneural can be better managers of resources than some of the so called corporate managers.
Warren Buffet happens to be one of the prudent, conservative and resourceful managers. Ask yourself what is the salary of Warren Buffet, it is just 100,000 dollars per annum. You can always trust your money with someone like Warren Buffet.
I will rather get my dividend, and invest it in any stock or assets that can give future income.