MarketWatch

[overload]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

The issue we have on ground now is that yields on fixed income instruments went below 12.30% (inflation figure for November 2012; we are still waiting for December numbers) and then bounced back up. They are mostly at par with inflation now. That is a signal from the market that yields below inflation rates are not acceptable; market players are now getting sensible. That liquidity that surge that happened when yields jumped back to inflation levels had nowhere else to go and they were pumped into equities.

Then out of the blues the CBN started rolling out the OMO auction guns with yields above 13%, and funds flowed back into fixed income instruments. The CBN raised the tempo, like I said in an earlier post on this thread, and kept increasing the demand for cash through OMO auctions. It is the effect of the demand for cash we are seeing in the market now and funds as funds flow back.

Now if inflation figures for December are released and there is an uptick in the numbers, Sanusi would probably go crazy and might up it a little bit more by increasing the yields on the OMO further and the volume requested. Now, that will be bad for equities. He will step it down if there is no change in inflation or if it drops.

ok, thanks.. but looking at this from a different angle, dont you think it will result to more income for these banks that take part in the OMO?

which hopefully will be translated to more dividends for the shareholders... so the trick is to buy these stocks at good prices abi?

[nosa2]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

The issue we have on ground now is that yields on fixed income instruments went below 12.30% (inflation figure for November 2012; we are still waiting for December numbers) and then bounced back up. They are mostly at par with inflation now. That is a signal from the market that yields below inflation rates are not acceptable; market players are now getting sensible. That liquidity that surge that happened when yields jumped back to inflation levels had nowhere else to go and they were pumped into equities.

Then out of the blues the CBN started rolling out the OMO auction guns with yields above 13%, and funds flowed back into fixed income instruments. The CBN raised the tempo, like I said in an earlier post on this thread, and kept increasing the demand for cash through OMO auctions. It is the effect of the demand for cash we are seeing in the market now and funds as funds flow back.

Now if inflation figures for December are released and there is an uptick in the numbers, Sanusi would probably go crazy and might up it a little bit more by increasing the yields on the OMO further and the volume requested. Now, that will be bad for equities. He will step it down if there is no change in inflation or if it drops.

I don't see this affecting fundamentally sound stocks

[emmanuel ewumi]

Originally Posted by nosa2

I don't see this affecting fundamentally sound stocks

I concur, may be KOD will give us more explanation.

[cecemontero]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

Market is taking a hit. As expected. Sanusi is snuffing the life out of the bulls with his OMO auctions.

The next thing to wait for is the December inflation rate. That will give a fair idea of what is expected from the market before bank results start rolling in. If inflation goes up, then, expect the bears to take a strangle hold and if it drops or comes out flat, then, market should trade sideways.

Regardless, the January bulls are done. And it is time to play the waiting game and allow the market to throw up bargains again.

Hahahaha!!! This is good to know....Thank you sir

[afolabi27]

Originally Posted by nosa2

I don't see this affecting fundamentally sound stocks

Don't be too sure, some who hold "fundamentally sound stocks" might decide to realize their profit (hopefully) and earn increasing yields that is certain. Institutional investors drive this market, and they will be sensible and sensitive to economic rates.

Its not too long ago those fundamentally strong stocks were trading at deep discounts.

[manemi]

Originally Posted by nosa2

I don't see this affecting fundamentally sound stocks

Yeah. DIAMOND even gained today despite all the blood on the floor.

[overload]

Originally Posted by manemi

Yeah. DIAMOND even gained today despite all the blood on the floor.

yea rite! just wait until oga Oracle begin sell down by tomorrow

[manemi]

Originally Posted by overload

yea rite! just wait until oga Oracle begin sell down by tomorrow

I don't think even Oracle can bring this one down. I will begin to worry if Nosa and KOD join the bandwagon though!

[Salida]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

The issue we have on ground now is that yields on fixed income instruments went below 12.30% (inflation figure for November 2012; we are still waiting for December numbers) and then bounced back up. They are mostly at par with inflation now. That is a signal from the market that yields below inflation rates are not acceptable; market players are now getting sensible. That liquidity that surge that happened when yields jumped back to inflation levels had nowhere else to go and they were pumped into equities.

Then out of the blues the CBN started rolling out the OMO auction guns with yields above 13%, and funds flowed back into fixed income instruments. The CBN raised the tempo, like I said in an earlier post on this thread, and kept increasing the demand for cash through OMO auctions. It is the effect of the demand for cash we are seeing in the market now and funds as funds flow back.

Now if inflation figures for December are released and there is an uptick in the numbers, Sanusi would probably go crazy and might up it a little bit more by increasing the yields on the OMO further and the volume requested. Now, that will be bad for equities. He will step it down if there is no change in inflation or if it drops.

Well we gave this warning to many that thought the market jamboree will just continue. As for me, I have prepared a huge pool of funds to play both the money market if SLS and his team continues the present MPR strategy as well as for taking positions in fundamentally sound equities at ridiculously bargain valuation.

Originally Posted by nosa2

I don't see this affecting fundamentally sound stocks

There will always be fundamentally sound stocks depending on your Investment objectives but the questions are: Considering the current inflation trend and economic terrain, are they at a bargain currently especially with the jamboree in the market?
Could you get them cheaper with better margin of safety as the year progresses? Let's wait and see.

[WOKILUMO]

In general most of the shares recovered most of the losses incurred earlier in the day.

Originally Posted by Salida

Well we gave this warning to many that thought the market jamboree will just continue. As for me, I have prepared a huge pool of funds to play both the money market if SLS and his team continues the present MPR strategy as well as for taking positions in fundamentally sound equities at ridiculously bargain valuation.




There will always be fundamentally sound stocks depending on your Investment objectives but the questions are: Considering the current inflation trend and economic terrain, are they at a bargain currently especially with the jamboree in the market?
Could you get them cheaper with better margin of safety as the year progresses? Let's wait and see.

[overload]

Originally Posted by WOKILUMO

In general most of the shares recovered most of the losses incurred earlier in the day.

i noticed that too! i think the initial panic sales created very good lows for some people to key in!

i love this 10% gain/loss. At least once a stock drops for a couple of days it creats new good entry levels

[Salida]

Originally Posted by WOKILUMO

In general most of the shares recovered most of the losses incurred earlier in the day.

And did they close up at the end of the day? Definitely this market making activity will create liquidity for free entry and exit.

[WOKILUMO]

They did not close Green. However, they did not close at the day's Low.

Originally Posted by Salida

And did they close up at the end of the day? Definitely this market making activity will create liquidity for free entry and exit.

[manemi]

Nigerian T-Bill Yields Fall to 15-Month Low on Inflation Bets - Bloomberg

"Nigerian Treasury bill yields fell to the lowest in 15 months at an auction yesterday as bids were more than double the amount on sale amid speculation that inflation and interest rates will retreat this year."

This should be a good outlook for the NSE....

[manemi]

Expectations on the Capital Market in 2013- A Stockbroker's perspective.

[Ozone]

Fellow SMN members, the time displayed on the homepage of SMN is 20 minutes fast, and this is reflecting wrongly on the post time of each forumites. The time presently is 7:25am. While the displayed time on SMN homepage is 7:42am. I hope this will be corrected by the administrators of the site, thanks.

[manemi]

http://www.abndigital.com/page/multi...h-Rele-Adesina

A rather crisp and clear analysis and outlook for 2013 from Ms. Rele Adesina.

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by overload

i noticed that too! i think the initial panic sales created very good lows for some people to key in!

i love this 10% gain/loss. At least once a stock drops for a couple of days it creats new good entry levels

This is one of the reasons I changed my strategies. I don't do high speed trading anymore, especially now that I am no longer close to the stockbrokers. In those days at FCMB, I could just walk into the trading room that was on the same floor with me to get a feel of the market pulse. If you are not close to traders, it's better to just create a strategy and stick with it.

[overload]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

This is one of the reasons I changed my strategies. I don't do high speed trading anymore, especially now that I am no longer close to the stockbrokers. In those days at FCMB, I could just walk into the trading room that was on the same floor with me to get a feel of the market pulse. If you are not close to traders, it's better to just create a strategy and stick with it.

Although I have direct access to my broker to buy and sell even while on the floor, i dont panic most times cos I have trading portfolio and Long term investment portfolio.

Over time i just move my profits from my trading portfolio to buy my investment stocks which basically are very defensive stocks like Nestle and NB.

As for my trading I stick to 25 -30% profit or if the bid is good like i did in International Brewreies and FCMB lately I stay on to higher figures!

it doesnt work all the time but my defensive stocks make me happy even when am carrying losses on my trading position

[manemi]

Market is greener today than yesterday. have the profit takers finished their thing?