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  #25041 (permalink)  
Old 8th February 2013, 06:46 PM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

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Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
Nosa and Manemi are gnashing their teeth because they sold off their holdings expecting a fall.
I no sell oh! Abeg wetin give u the impression say I sell, anyway I'm having a fun year and my fingers are far from the trigger.
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  #25042 (permalink)  
Old 8th February 2013, 07:01 PM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

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Originally Posted by nosa2 View Post
I no sell oh! Abeg wetin give u the impression say I sell, anyway I'm having a fun year and my fingers are far from the trigger.
Hmmm..................well more grease to your fingers or elbows brother

and Olodumare keep Blessing AIICO, Wema and NEM......and any other stock I might have bought
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  #25043 (permalink)  
Old 8th February 2013, 09:59 PM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

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Originally Posted by iknnamdi View Post
haahaaa...

al i need is my cost ....

Mutual has no fundamentals and cant be compared to Nem or Aiico.

cant take any chances..

waiting for IEI and LASACO so sell at 56k and will exist
Why are you waiting to exit at 56k?
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  #25044 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 11:16 AM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

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Originally Posted by emmanuel ewumi View Post
IBB started the partial and full privatisation of some companies that were Nationalised during the Indeginization policy of Obasanjo in 1976.

Federal government owned 60% in all the banks, while Nigerians owned the remaining 40%, Oil marketing companies like Unipetrol now OANDO, National Oil now Conoil, Texaco Marketing now MRS, Agip now a member of OANDO were 100% owned by the federal government.

IBB made sure that the 60% owned by government was sold to Nigerians, he also did the partial privatisation of the Oil Marketing companies owned by government. He also liberalised bank ownership, which gave birth to GTB, Zenith, Access, FCMB, etc.
Okomu, Presco, African Pertol were also privatised during Babangida's era. Through the TCPC ie the agency in sharge of commercialization and privatisation of government owned companies, we saw the listing of Unipetrol, African Petrol, National Oil, Okomu, Presco etc.

The era of IBB created a lot of activities in the capital market, loans were also given to workers to buy shares in some of the privatised companies.
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  #25045 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 11:26 AM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

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Originally Posted by emmanuel ewumi View Post
The all share index was introduced in 1984 during the era of Apostle Alile, as the Director general of the Nigerian stock exchange. The is the movement trend of the All share index from 1984 to date.

Note that the figure for the ASI shows the closing figure for the as at 31st December.


Year ASI % gain or loss
1984 105 5
1985 127 21
1986 163 28
1987 190 16
1988 233 23
1989 325 39
1990 513 58
1991 783 53
1992 1107 41
1993 1543 39
1994 2205 43
1995 5092 131
1996 6992 37
1997 6440 (8)
1998 5672 (12)
1999 5266 (7)
2000 8111 54
2001 10963 35
2002 12137 11
2003 20129 66
2004 23844 18
2005 24085 1
2006 33189 38
2007 57990 74
2008 31450 (46)
2009 20827 (33)
2010 24770 19
2011 20730 (16)
2012 28079 35



Please not that decimals for the All share index, and percentage gain or loss were summarised to the significant figures.

During the era of Abacha that lasted 1993 to 1998, the ASI was 1543 in December 1993 and closed at 5672 in December 1998. This is a total return of 367% in 5 years or an annualized return of about 30%.

What are the factors responsible for this performance, we should all remember that Nigeria was sanctioned and ostracized by the international community during the era of Abacha.
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  #25046 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 11:34 AM
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The ASI was 127 on December 31st 1985, it closed at 1543 on December 1993. This gave a total return of 1214% when IBB was the President of Nigeria. What were the factors responsible for the excellent performance of our market, under a Military rule? This return happened over a period of 8 years.

The market enjoyed an annualized return of about 37% during Babangida's era. The guy surrounded himself we some smart technocrats who gave him ideas on how to govern the country.
This does not mean that IBB does not have his own short comings.

Last edited by emmanuel ewumi; 9th February 2013 at 03:32 PM.
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  #25047 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 12:09 PM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by emmanuel ewumi View Post
The all share index was introduced in 1984 during the era of Apostle Alile, as the Director general of the Nigerian stock exchange. The is the movement trend of the All share index from 1984 to date.

Note that the figure for the ASI shows the closing figure for the as at 31st December.


Year ASI % gain or loss
1984 105 5
1985 127 21
1986 163 28
1987 190 16
1988 233 23
1989 325 39
1990 513 58
1991 783 53
1992 1107 41
1993 1543 39
1994 2205 43
1995 5092 131
1996 6992 37
1997 6440 (8)
1998 5672 (12)
1999 5266 (7)
2000 8111 54
2001 10963 35
2002 12137 11
2003 20129 66
2004 23844 18
2005 24085 1
2006 33189 38
2007 57990 74
2008 31450 (46)
2009 20827 (33)
2010 24770 19
2011 20730 (16)
2012 28079 35



Please not that decimals for the All share index, and percentage gain or loss were summarised to the significant figures.


Obasanjo ruled the country from 1999 to 2007. The ASI at December 1999 was 5266 and closed at 33189 on December 2006. I deliberately did not include the figure for 2007, when the ASI closed at 57990.

The performance of the stock exchange during Obasanjo's era gave a return of 530%. This is an annualized return of about 23% during Obasanjo's era, the performance of the market in 2007 was not included in the analysis.
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  #25048 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 12:21 PM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by emmanuel ewumi View Post
Obasanjo ruled the country from 1999 to 2007. The ASI at December 1999 was 5266 and closed at 33189 on December 2006. I deliberately did not include the figure for 2007, when the ASI closed at 57990.

The performance of the stock exchange during Obasanjo's era gave a return of 530%. This is an annualized return of about 23% during Obasanjo's era, the performance of the market in 2007 was not included in the analysis.

Some factors were responsible for what happened during Obasanjo's regime, he travelled abroad on several occasions soliciting for investments in the country. He also initiated some economic policies that created opportunities for Nigerian eg liberalization of telecommunication, agricultural revolution in poultry, crop and fruit farming.

Obasanjo also completed the partial privatisation of Unipetrol, National Oil, African Oil, Texaco etc. Nahco was privatised and listed during his tenure, Sahcol was also privatised.

The banking consolidation exercise of Soludo also catalyzed activities on the exchange.

Towards the end of Obasanjo's regime he sold 51% of the governments shares in the refineries to private investors. Although this was later reversed by Late Yar' Adua.

The coming of GSM redefined the way we do business in the country, it also created opportunities that have a multiplier effects on the entertainment sector, Sport sector etc.
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  #25049 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 12:45 PM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by emmanuel ewumi View Post
The all share index was introduced in 1984 during the era of Apostle Alile, as the Director general of the Nigerian stock exchange. The is the movement trend of the All share index from 1984 to date.

Note that the figure for the ASI shows the closing figure for the as at 31st December.


Year ASI % gain or loss
1984 105 5
1985 127 21
1986 163 28
1987 190 16
1988 233 23
1989 325 39
1990 513 58
1991 783 53
1992 1107 41
1993 1543 39
1994 2205 43
1995 5092 131
1996 6992 37
1997 6440 (8)
1998 5672 (12)
1999 5266 (7)
2000 8111 54
2001 10963 35
2002 12137 11
2003 20129 66
2004 23844 18
2005 24085 1
2006 33189 38
2007 57990 74
2008 31450 (46)
2009 20827 (33)
2010 24770 19
2011 20730 (16)
2012 28079 35



Please not that decimals for the All share index, and percentage gain or loss were summarised to the significant figures.

Yar'Adua/ Good luck took over in 2007, Yar' Adua died in office during his first term. Goodluck completed the term, Goodluck will be in charge till 2015. How has the market performed during the era of Jonathan/ Yar'Adua.

When they took over in 2007 the ASI on December 31st 2007 was 57990. I will not use the figure of 2007 for my analysis, i will use the figure for 2009.

The ASI for 2009 is 20827, this figure is very close to the one we got in 2003 at the beginning of Obasanjo's second term. This figure is also very close to the figure for 2011.

I won't bore you with the factors responsible for the long duration of the last bear market.

Assuming when Jonathan/ Yar'Adua took over in 2007 the ASI is 20000. If the right economic policies had been put in place and also implemented, the stock market grows at an annual growth rate of less than 20% ie 17%, with this the ASI should closed at 70000 by December 31st 2015.

Eight years is enough to see the impacts of the Economic programme of any government.

Last edited by emmanuel ewumi; 9th February 2013 at 03:24 PM.
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  #25050 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 12:50 PM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by emmanuel ewumi View Post
Yar'Adua/ Good luck took over in 2007, Yar' Adua died in office during his first term. Goodluck completed the term, Goodluck will be in charge till 2015. How has the market performed during the era of Jonathan/ Yar'Adua.

When they took over in 2007 the ASI on December 31st 2007 was 57990. I will not use the figure of 2007 for my analysis, i will use the figure for 2009.

The ASI for 2009 is 20827, this figure is very close to the one we got in 2003 at the beginning of Obasanjo's second term. This figure is also very close to the figure for 2011.

I won't bore you with the factors responsible for the long duration of the last bear market.

Assuming when Jonathan/ Yar'Adua took over in 2007 the ASI is 20000. If the right economic policies are put in place and also implemented, if the stock market grows at an annual growth rate of less than 20% ie 17%, the ASI should closed at 70000 by December 31st 2015.

Eight years is enough to see the impacts of the Economic programme of any government.


The government and regulators should have policies that will encourage the listing of Telcos and energy companies.
Government should speed up work on the privatisation and listing of the DISCOs. Government should curb corruption and wastage in governance. Government should create the enabling environment that will enable businesses and entrepreneurship to thrive.

We should endeavour to unlock the economic potentials in the Agricultural sector.
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  #25051 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 03:31 PM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

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Originally Posted by emmanuel ewumi View Post
Some factors were responsible for what happened during Obasanjo's regime, he travelled abroad on several occasions soliciting for investments in the country. He also initiated some economic policies that created opportunities for Nigerian eg liberalization of telecommunication, agricultural revolution in poultry, crop and fruit farming.

Obasanjo also completed the partial privatisation of Unipetrol, National Oil, African Oil, Texaco etc. Nahco was privatised and listed during his tenure, Sahcol was also privatised.

The banking consolidation exercise of Soludo also catalyzed activities on the exchange.

Towards the end of Obasanjo's regime he sold 51% of the governments shares in the refineries to private investors. Although this was later reversed by Late Yar' Adua.

The coming of GSM redefined the way we do business in the country, it also created opportunities that have a multiplier effects on the entertainment sector, Sport sector etc.

The reversal of the sale of 51% shares of government holdings in the refineries to private investor sent a wrong signal to the Investing community. Yar'Adua also discontinued some of the Economic policies of Obasanjo.
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  #25052 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 03:39 PM
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The reversal of the sale of 51% shares of government holdings in the refineries to private investor sent a wrong signal to the Investing community. Yar'Adua also discontinued some of the Economic policies of Obasanjo.

Instead of bailing out stock brokers, government should have loaned money to retail investors when the ASI went down to about 20827 in 2009. I am of the opinion if government had done this the stock market would have continued the recovery that was observed in 2010. But due to lack of focus, plan and right policies, the market recovered in 2010 closing at 24770 only to fall back to 20730 in 2011.
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  #25053 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 03:42 PM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

Foreign investors won’t develop our economy – Awoyemi — The Punch - Nigeria's Most Widely Read Newspaper



I totally agree with the CEO of Proshare on this.
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  #25054 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 03:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emmanuel ewumi View Post
Instead of bailing out stock brokers, government should have loaned money to retail investors when the ASI went down to about 20827 in 2009. I am of the opinion if government had done this the stock market would have continued the recovery that was observed in 2010. But due to lack of focus, plan and right policies, the market recovered in 2010 closing at 24770 only to fall back to 20730 in 2011.

I think the current recovery is here to stay for the next 3 to 5 years. I am also of the biased opinion that ASI should close at a minimum of 40000 in 2013.
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  #25055 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 04:15 PM
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Quote:
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I think the current recovery is here to stay for the next 3 to 5 years. I am also of the biased opinion that ASI should close at a minimum of 40000 in 2013.

Since the All Share Index was introduced in 1984, the market lost in just 6 years that was 1997, 1998, 1999, 2008, 2009, 2011. The market was flat in 2005.
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  #25056 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 04:19 PM
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Quote:
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Since the All Share Index was introduced in 1984, the market lost in just 6 years that was 1997, 1998, 1999, 2008, 2009, 2011. The market was flat in 2005.
The period that the market lost was 21%, while the period the market gained was 79%.
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  #25057 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 04:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emmanuel ewumi View Post
I think the current recovery is here to stay for the next 3 to 5 years. I am also of the biased opinion that ASI should close at a minimum of 40000 in 2013.
U never can be so sure. In as much as I would like the market recovery to last long, I don't think our dependence on foreign investors would allow me to guaranty that the recovery would last so long. They are like prostitute, once they have made their money they are off. However enjoy the party while it last.
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  #25058 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 04:24 PM
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U never can be so sure. In as much as I would like the market recovery to last long, I don't think our dependence on foreign investors would allow me to guaranty that the recovery would last so long. They are like prostitute, once they have made their money they are off. However enjoy the party while it last.

The last bear market was unnecessarily long, historically bear market lasts an average of 3 years. The recovery should have started in 2009, but alas we lost it.

Stocks are currently under valued compared to what stocks of the same business, pedigree and market are selling for in similar stock exchanges in Africa and emerging markets.

As a matter of fact ASI of 40000 in 2013 is an understatement.
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  #25059 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 04:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dr dowell View Post
U never can be so sure. In as much as I would like the market recovery to last long, I don't think our dependence on foreign investors would allow me to guaranty that the recovery would last so long. They are like prostitute, once they have made their money they are off. However enjoy the party while it last.
That is why Nigerians should be educated, enlightened and empowered so that they can take their rightful place in our economy.

I always ask my self how come our Institutional investors refused to buy into the market when the ASI went to to 20,000. I bought, but I did not buy the way i would have loved to buy.
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  #25060 (permalink)  
Old 9th February 2013, 04:33 PM
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Default Re: MarketWatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by emmanuel ewumi View Post
That is why Nigerians should be educated, enlightened and empowered so that they can take their rightful place in our economy.

I always ask my self how come our Institutional investors refused to buy into the market when the ASI went to to 20,000. I bought, but I did not buy the way i would have loved to buy.

Normal retail investors with millions of units of good stocks did not buy those stocks when the market is bubbling with activities, they made strategic purchases when no one is interested in the market. That is why these types of investors are never afraid of falling stock prices, they are only afraid of deteriorating fundamentals of the companies they invest in.
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