MarketWatch

[riskreturn]

Quote:
Originally Posted by riskreturn
I seem to agree with what the oracles said that we should not expect a major rally until year end (particularly, after end-2008). The reasons are, among others, due to high and rising interest rates and especially a lot of companies eagerly waiting to go to the capital market at the slightest opportunity of a mild rally. The last PO/IPO was in March and, based on forla statements and grapevines, there have been pent-up desires for many of them to go to the market - WAPCO; BCC; (lately and probably, GUINNESS); Niger Insurance; Equity Assurance; Royal Exchange Insurance; CRUSADER; MBENEFIT; STACO;OASISINS; NSLTECH; TRANSEXPR; CILEASING; AP; ETERNAOIL; DEAPCAP; UNHOMES; and mothers of all POs/IPOs (i.e., banks like Equatorial Trust Bank; ETI; ECOBANK; GUARANTY; INTERCONT; SPRINGBANK; STERLNBANK; UBN; UNITYBNK; etc). A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that the total amount greatly surpasses a trillion Naira - even without over-subscription. Any attempt for a major rally to happen would be surpressed by coming to the market by a combination of the above, thereby keeping the stock exchange indext at a mild-level-of-rally equilibrium.

Originally Posted by Michael

Why raise money in a bear market? The Market would need to be bullish to raise money by selling a fewer number of shares. Most of our companies have a high number of shares outstanding. The only way to raise significant amounts of money in a bear market without increasing excessively their number of shares would be to artificially raise prices for each of the stocks before going public.
Secondly, with the Dec year ends for banks. It will be difficult to jump from one bank to another based on different year ends. Positioning therefore will have to start earlier than Dec year end.

What we are saying is that they (including Dangote Cement that I missed out from the list) will be eagerly waiting for the bull market to emerge and immediately rush in to raise funds from the capital market, thereby preventing the bull market to emerge fully and in a full swing. A plethora of primary market activities, driven by an incipient or emerging bull, will surpress emergence of a full-blown, mature bull in the market. We all ragree they will not come out to raise funds under the present market situation.

We should also bear in mind that, due to a common year end in December for all banks and 2008 being the first year of experiencing the resulting volume of work entailed, the end-year audited results may not be released until between April and June 2009 because of the time needed for external auditors and CBN to examine the accounts of all the banks, tending to over-stretch the auditors' and CBN's capacities. So, investors may realise there would be no need to take position until Q1 of 2009.

[billions]

The index decreased by 1.69% today.

[zainabusman]

Originally Posted by riskreturn

Quote:
Originally Posted by riskreturn

I seem to agree with what the oracles said that we should not expect a major rally until year end (particularly, after end-2008)...
....Any attempt for a major rally to happen would be surpressed by coming to the market by a combination of the above, thereby keeping the stock exchange indext at a mild-level-of-rally equilibrium.
......So, investors may realise there would be no need to take position until Q1 of 2009.

I agree with u. Unless there is a special bargain to be had, i am not buying until early September when the market is traditionally low. Even then it has to be at bargain prices.

I think we would be very fortunate to have a 15% gain at the end of the year. However, i believe the banking stocks will reward investors that hang on until mid Q1 next year.

[halfbread]

A turnover of 4.8 billion shares worth N41.96 billion in 77,288 deals was recorded this week, in contrast to a total of 5.21 billion shares valued at N42.52 billion exchanged last week in 82,798 deals.



Transactions during the week included a total of 4,500 units of Access Bank Plc N13.5 billion Redeemable Bond 2010 valued at N4.68 million.



There were no transactions in the Federal Government Development Stocks, State Government Bonds and Industrial Loans/Preference Stocks sectors.



The Insurance subsector was the most active during the week (measured by turnover volume), with 2.9 billion shares worth N4.4 billion exchanged by investors in 13,755 deals. Volume in the Insurance subsector was largely driven by activity in the shares of Investment and Allied Assurance Plc. Trading in the shares of the Insurance Company accounted for 2.3 billion shares, representing 78.5% of the subsector’s turnover.



The Banking subsector, boosted by activity in the shares of Fidelity Bank Plc, Sterling Bank Plc and PlatinumHabib Bank Plc, followed on the week’s activity chart with a turnover of 1.45 billion shares valued at N29.61 billion in 38,937 deals.



Last week, the Banking subsector led on the activity chart and was followed by the Insurance subsector.



Price Movement:

The All-Share Index rose by 1.0% to close on Friday at 55,456.58. The market capitalization of the 208 First -Tier equities closed higher at N10.9 trillion.

Seventy-Four (74) stocks appreciated in price during the week, higher than the forty (40) in the preceding week. Also, as in the preceding week, Chevron oil Nigeria Plc led on the gainers’ table with a gain of N16.90 to close at N355.49 per share while Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc followed with N5.10 to close at N85.00 per share. Other price gainers in the Top 10 category include:



• Beta Glass Co. Plc - N2.85



• Costain (WA) Plc - N2.85



• Dangote Flour Mills Plc - N2.38



• Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc - N2.25



• Cadbury Nigeria Plc - N2.23



• United Bank for Africa Plc - N2.09



• Ashaka Cement Plc - N1.99



• National Salt Co. Of Nig. Plc - N1.86



Thirty-Eight (38) stocks depreciated in price during the week, lower than the eighty (80) in the preceding week. Presco Plc led on the price losers’ table, dropping by N10.99 to close at N15.98

per share while Oando Plc followed with a loss of N7.99 to close at N196.00 per share. Other price losers in the Top 10 category include:



• Tripple Gee & Co. Plc - N4.85



• Intercontinental Bank Plc. - N4.69



• Nigerian-German Chemicals Plc - N4.66



• PlatinumHabib Bank Plc - N4.00



• Nestle Nigeria Plc - N3.90



• UACN Plc - N3.00



• Airline Services & Logistics Plc - N2.00



• Ecobank Transnational Incorporated - N1.93



Six equity prices were adjusted for dividend as recommended by the Board of Directors. Tripple Gee & Co. Plc was adjusted for Dividend of N0.15 per share and bonus of 1 for 2. Crusader Insurance Plc was adjusted for dividend of N0.15 per share. DN Meyer Plc was adjusted for dividend of N0.10 per share. Nigerian-German Chemicals Plc was adjusted for dividend of N0.45 per share. Presco Plc was adjusted for dividend of N0.05 per share and bonus of 1 for 1. Smart Products Nigeria Plc was adjusted for dividend of N0.075 per share



…Supplementary Listings

A total of 500,000,000 shares were added to the shares outstanding in the name of Presco Plc following the bonus of 1 for 1. Also, a total of 164,985,000 shares were added to the shares outstanding in the name of Tripple Gee & Co. Plc following the bonus of 1 for 2. Similarly, a total of 5,096505,536 were added to the shares outstanding in the name of Japaul Oil & Maritime Services Plc on Wednesday, July 2, 2008 following the conclusion of the hybrid offering and Placing.



COMPANY NEWS



LONGMAN NIGERIA PLC: Audited result for the year ended 31st December 2007 shows Turnover of N2.31 billion as against N1.74 billion in 2006. Profit after tax stood at N276.8 million compared with N203.75 million in 2006. The Directors are recommending a dividend of N1.00 per share. The date of closure of register of members is July 7, 2008 while payment date is July 28, 2008.



ROADS NIGERIA PLC: Audited result for the year ended 31st March 2007 shows Turnover of N1.8 billion as against N1.33 billion in 2006. Profit after tax stood at N25.12 million compared with N12 million in 2006. The Directors are recommending a dividend of N0.30 per share. The dates of closure of register of members and payment would be advised later.



INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INSURANCE PLC: Audited result for the year ended 31st December 2007. The Directors are recommending a dividend of N0.09 per share. The date of closure of register of members is July 11, 2008 while payment date is August 15, 2008.



STANDARD ALLIANCE INSURANCE PLC: Audited result for the year ended 31st December 2007 shows Gross Premium of N2.12 billion as against N1.61 billion in 2006. Profit after tax stood at N417 million compared with N328 million in 2006. The Directors are

recommending a dividend of N0.075 per share. The dates of closure of register of members and payment would be advised later.



TRANS-NATIONWIDE EXPRESS PLC: Unaudited result for the first quarter ended 31st March 2008 shows Turnover of N109.6 million, as against N81.7 million in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N13.42 million compared with N11.5 million in 2007.



NIGERIAN-GERMAN CHEMICALS PLC: Unaudited result for the first quarter ended 31st March 2008 shows Turnover of N902 million, as against N710.5 million in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N60.44 million compared with N57.2 million in 2007.



REPORT ON THE OTC MARKET FOR FGN BONDS

A turnover of 280.3 million units worth N281.2 billion in 2,120 deals was recorded this week, in contrast to a total of 142.75 million units valued at N145.7 billion exchanged in 1164 deals during the week ended June 26, 2008. The most active bond (measured by turnover volume) was the 5th FGN Bond 2018 Series 2 with a traded volume of 37.02 million units valued at N34.54 billion in 350 deals.

[kenebobo]

One thing is certain, the bears are back but what is not certain is if this bear is as agressive as the previous one. Anyway time will tell, I am closing all trades I have made profit and holding tight to my money till I see evidence of market returning to profitability. friday index closed at a higher rate of fall than thursday. Na wa o

[XXCASH]

Originally Posted by kenebobo

One thing is certain, the bears are back but what is not certain is if this bear is as agressive as the previous one. Anyway time will tell, I am closing all trades I have made profit and holding tight to my money till I see evidence of market returning to profitability. friday index closed at a higher rate of fall than thursday. Na wa o

I don't think so, but let's wait and see.

NSE Attractive Again After Market Correction - Reuters
( 05.07.08 )

Nigeria's stock market is ripe for investment after a correction this year and could one day overtake Johannesburg as sub-Saharan Africa's biggest exchange, a leading Nigerian banker said on Friday.

Gboyega Balogun, executive director of investment banking at Nigeria's First City Monument Bank, said foreign investors were keen to buy into the $95 billion market, which has fallen around 15 percent since early March.

"I have probably close to $5 billion on the sideline -- i.e. investors who have just launched funds overseas, Africa funds -- who are saying to me when should I come to Nigeria," Balogun told Reuters in his office in Lagos.

"I am very, very excited about the market now. I see a lot of opportunities, I see value out there, I see prices that justify the expected earnings," Balogun, who oversees FCMB's stockbroking and asset management business, said.

Nigeria was one of the best performing emerging markets in the world in recent years, attracting private equity and hedge fund investors from Europe, Asia and the United States.

But it is still not in the same league as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, whose market capitalisation at the end of May was around $815 billion, slightly bigger than Taiwan's and slightly smaller than Italy's.

The ready availability in Nigeria of margin credit -- lending to speculators -- as well as huge demand from retail investors new to the equities market fuelled a bubble over the past few years which has been steadily deflating since March.

Balogun said a combination of banks recalling margin facilities from brokers, investors selling shares to buy into a slew of private placements and stock prices looking fundamentally overvalued had triggered the correction.

"You've got margin calls, you've got people taking money out, you've got prices being overvalued and to a lesser extent foreign investors pulling money out because of what's going on in other parts of the world," he said.

"It was a needed thing to happen, for some rationality to come back to the market."

STRONG FUNDAMENTALS

Sceptics say buying equities in the world's eighth biggest oil exporter is just a bet on crude prices continuing to rally and fuel economic growth in an otherwise sluggish economy.

But optimists say that argument ignores potential growth in sectors such as telecoms, banking and retail, driven by an expanding middle class and a government which has pledged to encourage private sector growth.

"You're looking at the simple fact that we don't have a culture of consumer banking yet. You go out to a restaurant you're carrying cash. You go out to buy something, you use a cheque," Balogun said.

"There is no such thing as consumer lending (in Nigeria), even in terms of housing, how many people have mortgages? These are all opportunities that are eventually going to translate into profits," he said.

Volatility in the market was partly due to the high number of retail investors, many of them with no previous experience of holding shares, who believed the market could only rise and were easily panicked by negative headlines, he said.

"When the market is going down they'll over sell, when the market is up they'll over buy," Balogun said.

But he forecast more institutional investors would arrive as more Nigerian firms listed and stock prices began rising again.

"By the time you bring in some of these companies about to do IPOs, by the time we see a return of growth, this market is going to be far, far bigger than South Africa," Balogun said.

[riskreturn]

Originally Posted by zainabusman

I agree with u. Unless there is a special bargain to be had, i am not buying until early September when the market is traditionally low. Even then it has to be at bargain prices.

I think we would be very fortunate to have a 15% gain at the end of the year. However, i believe the banking stocks will reward investors that hang on until mid Q1 next year.

I am a bit more pessmistic by assuming a single-digit growth of ASI by end-2008. But the fact still remains that, if profits being reported by banks are genuine and not faked, the bakning stocks have wonderfully strong fundamentals. If their prices still remain so low at end-September, many of them would be having single-digit P/E ratios then.

[kenebobo]

Originally Posted by XXCASH

I don't think so, but let's wait and see.

NSE Attractive Again After Market Correction - Reuters
( 05.07.08 )

Nigeria's stock market is ripe for investment after a correction this year and could one day overtake Johannesburg as sub-Saharan Africa's biggest exchange, a leading Nigerian banker said on Friday.

Gboyega Balogun, executive director of investment banking at Nigeria's First City Monument Bank, said foreign investors were keen to buy into the $95 billion market, which has fallen around 15 percent since early March.

"I have probably close to $5 billion on the sideline -- i.e. investors who have just launched funds overseas, Africa funds -- who are saying to me when should I come to Nigeria," Balogun told Reuters in his office in Lagos.

"I am very, very excited about the market now. I see a lot of opportunities, I see value out there, I see prices that justify the expected earnings," Balogun, who oversees FCMB's stockbroking and asset management business, said.

Nigeria was one of the best performing emerging markets in the world in recent years, attracting private equity and hedge fund investors from Europe, Asia and the United States.

But it is still not in the same league as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, whose market capitalisation at the end of May was around $815 billion, slightly bigger than Taiwan's and slightly smaller than Italy's.

The ready availability in Nigeria of margin credit -- lending to speculators -- as well as huge demand from retail investors new to the equities market fuelled a bubble over the past few years which has been steadily deflating since March.

Balogun said a combination of banks recalling margin facilities from brokers, investors selling shares to buy into a slew of private placements and stock prices looking fundamentally overvalued had triggered the correction.

"You've got margin calls, you've got people taking money out, you've got prices being overvalued and to a lesser extent foreign investors pulling money out because of what's going on in other parts of the world," he said.

"It was a needed thing to happen, for some rationality to come back to the market."

STRONG FUNDAMENTALS

Sceptics say buying equities in the world's eighth biggest oil exporter is just a bet on crude prices continuing to rally and fuel economic growth in an otherwise sluggish economy.

But optimists say that argument ignores potential growth in sectors such as telecoms, banking and retail, driven by an expanding middle class and a government which has pledged to encourage private sector growth.

"You're looking at the simple fact that we don't have a culture of consumer banking yet. You go out to a restaurant you're carrying cash. You go out to buy something, you use a cheque," Balogun said.

"There is no such thing as consumer lending (in Nigeria), even in terms of housing, how many people have mortgages? These are all opportunities that are eventually going to translate into profits," he said.

Volatility in the market was partly due to the high number of retail investors, many of them with no previous experience of holding shares, who believed the market could only rise and were easily panicked by negative headlines, he said.

"When the market is going down they'll over sell, when the market is up they'll over buy," Balogun said.

But he forecast more institutional investors would arrive as more Nigerian firms listed and stock prices began rising again.

"By the time you bring in some of these companies about to do IPOs, by the time we see a return of growth, this market is going to be far, far bigger than South Africa," Balogun said.

This is not a guarantee that the bears are not back. Its just a one man speech.

[olusolakemmy]

Originally Posted by kenebobo

One thing is certain, the bears are back but what is not certain is if this bear is as agressive as the previous one. Anyway time will tell, I am closing all trades I have made profit and holding tight to my money till I see evidence of market returning to profitability. friday index closed at a higher rate of fall than thursday. Na wa o

bros na wa o!
so u just expect say make we just they see blues everyday like dat?
but your predictions of return of bears kind of underline your fears!!!!!!!
you just want to lock up profit, stand and look till things become healthy!

as long as your investment policy have been met, why not?

the only thing that want me to think along your line is the amount of money that some companies intend to generate through IPO, PO and even PP!

if investors invade the secondary market to get fund for purchasing this stuff, then the market is in for trouble.

another set back to that, is that people excitement about PO and co has grossly reduce so we might not just witness heavy patronage of this pp, po and ipo

well, we are waiting

[hispy99]

Regulators Meet to Boost Stock Market

THISDAY ONLINE

[kenebobo]

Originally Posted by olusolakemmy

bros na wa o!
so u just expect say make we just they see blues everyday like dat?
but your predictions of return of bears kind of underline your fears!!!!!!!
you just want to lock up profit, stand and look till things become healthy!

as long as your investment policy have been met, why not?

the only thing that want me to think along your line is the amount of money that some companies intend to generate through IPO, PO and even PP!

if investors invade the secondary market to get fund for purchasing this stuff, then the market is in for trouble.

another set back to that, is that people excitement about PO and co has grossly reduce so we might not just witness heavy patronage of this pp, po and ipo

well, we are waiting

people make decisions according to how the market moves. And from the way the index is falling, there is 50% possibility that the index may fall below what it fell some weeks ago. Nobody can predict what the market will do so the best thing is to expect the worst and act accordingly so that even if the market goes as bad as you expected you would be in the rejoicing side and that is what I am doing.

[billions]

Originally Posted by hispy99

Regulators Meet to Boost Stock Market

THISDAY ONLINE

If d price drop shd continue...i expect d authorities to be more proactive.

[olusolakemmy]

Originally Posted by kenebobo

people make decisions according to how the market moves. And from the way the index is falling, there is 50% possibility that the index may fall below what it fell some weeks ago. Nobody can predict what the market will do so the best thing is to expect the worst and act accordingly so that even if the market goes as bad as you expected you would be in the rejoicing side and that is what I am doing.

yes o
i understand you my brother.

locking up profit is just one of the characteristics of traders/investor of stock exchanges all over the world.

but have you taken time to analyse what was responsible for the recent bear run and why you think it will return so soon?

please if you have done such analysis, kindly share with us.

thanks

[kenebobo]

Originally Posted by olusolakemmy

yes o
i understand you my brother.

locking up profit is just one of the characteristics of traders/investor of stock exchanges all over the world.

but hav