MarketWatch

[Askira]

Seems there is no hiding place now. everything is going crazy. My portfolio loses 18.7% in a week. na wao, am confused, may be i should just ignore the market for this year. God dey sha.

[Babs_O]

Originally Posted by billions

I think companies shd b allowed to buyback their shares....

What will a Nigerian company gain by buying back its shares. It won't help their profitability as the dividend they pay is far less than cost of borrowed funds. Also they do not have the excess funds to waste to buy back shares, rather most of them are looking for more funds to play (toy) with.

It could only make sense in Nigeria for a company to buy back its shares if it intends doing an offer and want to fiddle the offer price higher. (And this I believe is not acceptable practice to the regulators)

[billions]

Originally Posted by ttoladele

Only if they have enough in their reserve, some are surviving on bank facilities, hence working ,effectively, for these banks.

....it wld be optional,companies that are willing/able to do it shd be allowed.

[zainabusman]

Originally Posted by zainabusman

It was very red today.

Index closed at 53,732. That is it lost 1.56%. Considering all the good news from banks we received this week, it is very surprising.

[Avocado]

Remember: you've only lose money when you check out. For those with livers of nerves, go relax if there're no funds to take advantage. For friends with livers of steel, hang on. Some rules for a bear market:

"Dust off the abacus: Down and dirty financial analysis has increasingly gone out of vogue. As share prices fall, so value emerges. But you'll only spot it if you are looking for it. And this means poring over the numbers, not chasing dreams. You can afford to keep it simple. Thoroughness will pay greater dividends than sloppy sophistication."

and

"Beware false prophets: Nobody knows where markets are going - not me, not you, not [insert your favourite analyst(s)]. Your view has as much or as little validity as anyone else's. Keep this in mind and, when your analysis tells you it's time to buy, you'll find you have the requisite bravery."

[Articulate]

The first thing you need to do as an Investor, not a speculator; is to have a clear investment strategy and the best strategy is a combination of long/short term and the most appropriate ratio is 9:1. For the 90% of your investment you need to pick your study the stocks carefully, have clear understanding of their ‘fundamentals/sentimentals’. They should be companies with strong history of excellent performance, sound management and great plans for the future. You then add new promising stocks from emerging sectors coming to the market on a regular basis. Examples of such emerging stocks are those in the mortgage, insurance, IT, manufacturing, telecommunication, etc. In addition to fundamentals, the next most important thing to ensure diversity across the key areas of the economy.

You are free to speculate with the remaining 10%. If you gamble and experience losses it won’t have any significant effect on your portfolio. No matter how profitable your speculative trading is, resist the temptation to remove money from your long term investor into the short term fund.

If you follow this strategy, you don’t need to bother about the daily variations in the stock prices. You only monitor the market to either amuse yourself or take advantage of some cheap stocks. Your mind will be at rest because you know that in the long run you will end up the winner, because you have done your homework. Every informed investor knows that investing in stock is marathon race and not 100 Meters dash. It is only those who are focused, who can endure that will end up successful. Running a marathon with the mentality of a sprinter is a sure recipe for failure.

For a Speculator, investment is a race against time and the intention is to make as much as possible within the shortest period. Put differently, for a Speculator investment is 100 Meters dash and the reward is expected within 10 seconds. Speculation is for born gamblers. If you are not ready to gamble with your hard earned money, decide whether you want to be an investor or a speculator.

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by Articulate

...
For a Speculator, investment is a race against time and the intention is to make as much as possible within the shortest period. Put differently, for a Speculator investment is 100 Meters dash and the reward is expected within 10 seconds. Speculation is for born gamblers. If you are not ready to gamble with your hard earned money, decide whether you want to be an investor or a speculator.

You forget to add that speculation is a competition against the very best in a 100M dash. People actually go to Harvard to study technical analysis and when one plays the game, one plays with such people. They will dump useless shares on you and you will be feeling great until you lose 90% of your money before you know what hit you.

I am not so particularly moved by the roller coaster movement of the NSE index. The index is value-weighted and it is worthy of note that the banks are the most capitalized in the market and when they take a hit, it sends reverberations up and down the market. I think the index measurement should be revisited so that the true picture of the market can emerge.

For some of us that have not staked as much in the banks as we have in other sectors, the hit on portfolio is not as bad as one would have thought.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by billions

I think companies shd b allowed to buyback their shares....

They don't need to be allowed to do it. I believe that even If Zenith Bank does not buyback its shares when cheap," Jim Ovia will buy them" Is it really possible to seperate Jim Ovia from Zenith. What stops Guaranty Trust Assurance from buying GTB shares, Or any other bank subsidiary. They are not buying simply because they feel that prices will drop lower. Once the prices start rising, they will then become unavailable

[billions]

Originally Posted by Michael

They don't need to be allowed to do it. I believe that even If Zenith Bank does not buyback its shares when cheap," Jim Ovia will buy them" Is it really possible to seperate Jim Ovia from Zenith. What stops Guaranty Trust Assurance from buying GTB shares, Or any other bank subsidiary. They are not buying simply because they feel that prices will drop lower. Once the prices start rising, they will then become unavailable

....i dont think that these people have d power to do anything they like wth d banks money..

[XXCASH]

Originally Posted by billions

...i dont think d MD of a company has d power to run d company the way he runs his family..

Believe me, some run the company like their family business.

Let me not call names of coys for the sake of peace

[Michael]

Originally Posted by billions

....i dont think that these people have d power to do anything they like wth d banks money..

Who is there to stop them. The Regulators may only get to know if the transaction is not closed out by the end of the audited report. I have heard of banks giving customers agricultural loans for stock market speculation, where were the regulators then.

[billions]

Macro-economic Outlook for Nigeria - H2 08
Posted Wednesday, July 16, 2008



Executive Summary - Proshare Blog » Blog Archive » Macro-economic Outlook for Nigeria - H2 08 by ZSL

Slower activity in H1 from strong 2007

Compared to 2007, the first half of 2008 was rather quiet. This was due to systemic uncertainty caused by the stalemate between the legislature and the executive over the 2008 budget, the various election petition tribunals across the country and probes into the activities of the previous administration.





Potential for improvement in H2 08

In our view, the macroeconomic outlook for Nigeria in the later half of 2008 looks promising. Fiscal spending is likely to increase as the budget is set and rising crude oil prices also support extra allocations. A major concern however is inflation which threatens to undermine economic reforms as well as slow the growth of consumer spending by the burgeoning middle class.



Four factors worth watching in H2 08 We have organized our outlook around four key areas: crude oil prices, government spending, private consumption and inflation.



Crude Oil: We expect the growth in prices to slow in H2, but remain at high levels thereby contributing to inflation.



Government Spending: We expect the impact of spending to be expansionary and potentially inflationary.



Consumer Spending: We expect the long-term trend of strong growth in consumer spending to be slowed somewhat by inflationary pressures. Spending will also be curbed by the rising costs of borrowing.



Inflation: We expect inflationary pressures to remain in the second half as input prices continue to rise on the back of high commodity prices.





Portfolio Implications: Diversification is Important

The recent market volatility has underscored the importance of a diversified portfolio to Nigerian investors – particularly individuals.



We recommend ensuring that your portfolio reflects your risk tolerance in its allocation to equities versus fixed income.



As rates rise in H2 08, fixed deposits should hold an even larger weight in a diversified portfolio. We continue to recommend an overweight position in Nigerian equities but favor defensive sectors that will benefit from spending in the second half of the year, such as healthcare, food & beverages and materials.



The financial services sectors (banking and insurance) also look more attractively priced now given the recent market correction.



Proshare Blog » Blog Archive » Macro-economic Outlook for Nigeria - H2 08 by ZSL

[billions]

Originally Posted by Michael

Who is there to stop them. The Regulators may only get to know if the transaction is not closed out by the end of the audited report. I have heard of banks giving customers agricultural loans for stock market speculation, where were the regulators then.

I know a deputy MD of a bank and i can say that i hv an idea of what some MDs go thru during board meetings.Things may seem very okay to outsiders...since dis is best for business.

The % of MDs dat hv d power to do anything at anytime wth company resources is small.

The law on share buyback will affect more dan 160 quoted companies....not just Zenith,AP and a few others.

[waaan5]

Protest over Pakistan share slump

A slump in investor confidence has accelerated
Angry investors have attacked the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) in protest at plunging Pakistani share prices.

Up to a 1,000 people took part in the demonstration at the country's main stock exchange, Reuters reports.

A number of windows were broken and at least two people injured, the news agency said.

The protesters demanded a temporary closure of the KSE to stop further slides. It is down 14% since Monday and reached an 18-month low this week.

A growing company and consumer debt burden and surging inflation have led to a crisis of confidence in Pakistan's economy, analysts say.

Concern has also been fuelled by political infighting between the new coalition government and its allies over the reinstatement of judges sacked last year by President Pervez Musharraf

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Protest over Pakistan share slump

[billions]

Originally Posted by waaan5

Protest over Pakistan share slump

A slump in investor confidence has accelerated
Angry investors have attacked the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) in protest at plunging Pakistani share prices.

Up to a 1,000 people took part in the demonstration at the country's main stock exchange, Reuters reports.

A number of windows were broken and at least two people injured, the news agency said.

The protesters demanded a temporary closure of the KSE to stop further slides. It is down 14% since Monday and reached an 18-month low this week.

A growing company and consumer debt burden and surging inflation have led to a crisis of confidence in Pakistan's economy, analysts say.

Concern has also been fuelled by political infighting between the new coalition government and its allies over the reinstatement of judges sacked last year by President Pervez Musharraf

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Protest over Pakistan share slump

The attack will cause a more rapid fall....they shd close it to get issues sorted.