MarketWatch

[horlads]

Originally Posted by pumping

No code from my side jare. At least this is what I think. We should start looking for valuable stocks to re-enter after the recent battering. I bid for Flourmills at N36.11 today and just got text alert that half of my order was filled. Flourmills eventually closed higher. It may drop again tomorrow, so I will be going for it again.

I have no say regarding the banks. It looks like they may be dropping more based on the net offers I was seeing today but I have been wrong most of the time as far as this sector is concerned so don't take my word for it. I am referring to other sectors like conglomerates, foods, cement etc.

Pumping, how did you arrive at your bid price. did you take 5% off Friday's close or it was from your crystal ball?

[pumping]

Originally Posted by horlads

Pumping, how did you arrive at your bid price. did you take 5% off Friday's close or it was from your crystal ball?

Yes, just 5% of the Friday's closing price and making sure to round it up to to 2 digits.

[Abinishio]

Originally Posted by pumping

Yes, just 5% of the Friday's closing price and making sure to round it up to to 2 digits.

Where do we see FM going to.
How much head room is left.
It's struggling to go above N40.
Please advise

[mecatchcha]

Originally Posted by pumping

Yes, just 5% of the Friday's closing price and making sure to round it up to to 2 digits.

Bros P,

You get mind enter the market today ooooo.

Me dey wait for another 2 - trading days before re-entering....

M.

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by horlads

As noted earlier, Index went DOWN...by 1.56% with 18 advances and...wait for this...FIFTY-FOUR declines.
where do we go from here?
pumping, KOD, Hispy, Eniyanman, Nosa, Waan5, Wanaj0, 20% et al....where una dey?

bros, i dey hide my head somewhere o....my portfolio for don take serious beating today, but tomorrow na anoda day

[horlads]

Originally Posted by hispy99

bros, i dey hide my head somewhere o....my portfolio for don take serious beating today, but tomorrow na anoda day

Bros, me sef i gast take cover.my tashere portfolio took its biggest beating of the year... down by over 4%

[utuocha]

Apart from profit takers, the slide today was caused by investors caution following the losses suffered last Friday. From indications, I expect the market to position for recovery tomorrow and to show positive numbers in two days, that is Wednesday.

[twentypercent]

Originally Posted by horlads

As noted earlier, Index went DOWN...by 1.56% with 18 advances and...wait for this...FIFTY-FOUR declines.
where do we go from here?
pumping, KOD, Hispy, Eniyanman, Nosa, Waan5, Wanaj0, 20% et al....where una dey?

Not a good day at all

[pumping]

Originally Posted by Abinishio

Where do we see FM going to.
How much head room is left.
It's struggling to go above N40.
Please advise

Hoping for a good Q-3 result that can move it well past the struggling N40 mark. This is a re-entry for me and the most important thing is that I don't expect it to drop much below N36 for now.

[pumping]

Originally Posted by mecatchcha

Bros P,

You get mind enter the market today ooooo.

Me dey wait for another 2 - trading days before re-entering....

M.

I have a reason for early re-entry usually when the market is tanking but I usually bid at the lowest price of the day. Look at the cycle below for a stock that is closed at N10 today with closing prices as follows.

Mon - N10
Tue - N9.50
Wed - N9.00
Thur N8.50
Fri N9.00
Mon N9.50
Tue N10.00

For someone waiting for a turnaround before buying, the signal will likely come on Fri but the stock may be on bid and possibly the only chance is to buy at max price of the day on Monday which will be at N9.50 which was the price on Tuesday anyway and you could have bought without pressure. If you have a slow broker you may not get till Tuesday at N10.00

In either case, you are no better than the guy that bought early but peacefully on Wednesday at N9.00. The Thursday buy will be a genius but this is usually more to do with luck. I mean buying at the very lowest point.

So, even if the market tanks tomorrow as well, but turns around on Wednesday, we are suddenly back to the position today, so buying today may not be so early. Well, this is how I work my trading and it does not always work, but it does most of the time. When stocks are on bid, expect story from your broker or partially fulfilled bids.

[horlads]

Originally Posted by pumping

I have a reason for early re-entry usually when the market is tanking but I usually bid at the lowest price of the day. Look at the cycle below for a stock that is closed at N10 today with closing prices as follows.

Mon - N10
Tue - N9.50
Wed - N9.00
Thur N8.50
Fri N9.00
Mon N9.50
Tue N10.00

For someone waiting for a turnaround before buying, the signal will likely come on Fri but the stock may be on bid and possibly the only chance is to buy at max price of the day on Monday which will be at N9.50 which was the price on Tuesday anyway and you could have bought without pressure. If you have a slow broker you may not get till Tuesday at N10.00

In either case, you are no better than the guy that bought early but peacefully on Wednesday at N9.00. The Thursday buy will be a genius but this is usually more to do with luck. I mean buying at the very lowest point.

So, even if the market tanks tomorrow as well, but turns around on Wednesday, we are suddenly back to the position today, so buying today may not be so early. Well, this is how I work my trading and it does not always work, but it does most of the time. When stocks are on bid, expect story from your broker or partially fulfilled bids.

Investment 601 (M.Sc level) noted Sir

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by horlads

As noted earlier, Index went DOWN...by 1.56% with 18 advances and...wait for this...FIFTY-FOUR declines.
where do we go from here?
pumping, KOD, Hispy, Eniyanman, Nosa, Waan5, Wanaj0, 20% et al....where una dey?

As far as I can see, the slide of last few days are just perturbations in an otherwise upward trend. My counsel would be for folks to stay focused on the objective. Do not panick to sell if your buy objective was not met. I for one is looking out for buy opportunities in this current downturn. This is because I do not see the sort of market crash of 2009/2008 in the horizon. And there are people waiting to come back to market (they can carry my can).

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by twentypercent

That is always the dilemma, the latest gist on skyebank helped me make a decision not to pull the trigger just yet while I feel monday might be an ideal time to pull out of my UBA holdings. i have violated my 20% principle on both count and will only sell when i see the first sign of red ink on non-SLS banks...some new openings have opened up for today in the insurance sector and i might need to realign by next week.

only guys like you, KOD and pumping can accurately predict when to pull the trigger...but you no dey tell boys for here, na so so buy you dey tell us but we know say you dey sell too na

Sir, but we dey share eerything now! Ok, on when I sell, a good rule-of-thumb for me is to sell at about 20% gain (I love that your name, but I am considering raising this to 30% in view of the gradual creeping up of investor confidence), if I am not so sure of the stock and/or the appreciation was very steep like done in 5 trading days.

But if I get on the cheap, a stock with subsequent good flow of positive market sentiments/news (like Flourmills, Skye bank, Access bank), I wait to milk more. And I target to exit typically shortly before a major company announcement like full year results/corporate actions.

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by pumping

Yes, it is very easy to sell too early but how can this be avoided? It can be painful but personally, it never worries me because you can also sell too late. I just don't have the talent for getting the timing right.

I pull the trigger when I get to my target. This is something I try very hard not to violate. I avoid moving the goal post based on sentiments in the market except there is real compelling evidence of a sustained bull run.

It also does not profit anyone to be holding on to a stock after retracting 30% from the current price when it could have been sold. Also, I usually sell when I think I have found a stock with better upward potential to sink the funds into.

Just to give you an idea of why holding onto a stock for long does not appeal to me. In January, the turnover on my portfolio was 330% so I don't need mega margins to hit my target. Of course, this is just my own preferred style.

And i was thinking I am the only speculator here. The rest of y'all being investors

[pumping]

Originally Posted by waaan5

Sir, but we dey share eerything now! Ok, on when I sell, a good rule-of-thumb for me is to sell at about 20% gain (I love that your name, but I am considering raising this to 30% in view of the gradual creeping up of investor confidence), if I am not so sure of the stock and/or the appreciation was very steep like done in 5 trading days.

But if I get on the cheap, a stock with subsequent good flow of positive market sentiments/news (like Flourmills, Skye bank, Access bank), I wait to milk more. And I target to exit typically shortly before a major company announcement like full year results/corporate actions.

Chei....part in bold.....See the master!!! Buy on rumour, sell on news....

[londoncool]

Is'nt there any speculative Insurance stock for punters to peruse?

[pumping]

Originally Posted by londoncool

Is'nt there any speculative Insurance stock for punters to peruse?

A few....Lasaco, Goldinsure, Intenegins, Nem....

[eniyanman]

Originally Posted by horlads

As noted earlier, Index went DOWN...by 1.56% with 18 advances and...wait for this...FIFTY-FOUR declines.
where do we go from here?
pumping, KOD, Hispy, Eniyanman, Nosa, Waan5, Wanaj0, 20% et al....where una dey?

I no know o.

A whopping 40% (even die-hard optimists accept this will be difficult) rise in the index equates to average daily rate of ~0.16%. At this run-rate, the index should be up ~4.4%, however, YTD, it's up ~10%. This is impressive but definitely not sustainable. It begs the question, "is this another bubble?". Well, I don't know, however, having made more these past weeks than the whole of 2009, I can be pardoned for being cautious.

In my case, I have adjusted my strategy/hedge. I will continue to take profits (tomorrow, day after...) and hold cash while retaining an balanced exposure to the market. The ultimate plan is to be in a position to benefit from either a rising or falling market. One thing I don't envisage is to bring in new capital (at least not till the banks release results). Any acquistion must be funded from existing cash or from porfolio sales (using it as some form of liquidity stress test).

In conclusion, I am LONG! I expect the index to close the year higher than current level, however, I doubt it will be a straight path, there will be (perhaps, massive) corrections along the way. I reckon those who better manage liquidity will end up being the biggest winners. I may be wrong, very wrong.

Happy investing!

[pumping]

Originally Posted by eniyanman

I no know o.

A whopping 40% (even die-hard optimists accept this will be difficult) rise in the index equates to average daily rate of ~0.16%. At this run-rate, Happy investing!

Abeg, what do you mean by the 40%?

[willhenry123]

Originally Posted by nosa2

i agree with you totally, but i believe we'll be seeing the bulls reappear in a different sector. I expect the bears to chew up banking and building materials (cement), while the bulls will charge into the insurance sector and maybe (hopefully) conglomerates. In the insurance sector i'll advise we look out for goldlink and royal exchange, i expect close to 100% returns in these stocks before march ending. Personally, starting monday i'm attacking royal exchange with my full arsenal and wont stop till its 30% of my portfolio. For those who dont already know i'm a glorified petrol station attendant and hence knows didely squat about stocks, this prediction should be taken as serious as Clifford Orji's yearly stock picks (assuming he had one).

@nosa,Never really smelt this one coming. Royal exchange i undastand but goldlink i dont understand..pls help me out explainin ur rational 4goldlink lemme c if i can join u in the attack ,general sir.. ;D