MarketWatch

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by horlads

As noted earlier, Index went DOWN...by 1.56% with 18 advances and...wait for this...FIFTY-FOUR declines.
where do we go from here?
pumping, KOD, Hispy, Eniyanman, Nosa, Waan5, Wanaj0, 20% et al....where una dey?

As far as I can see, the slide of last few days are just perturbations in an otherwise upward trend. My counsel would be for folks to stay focused on the objective. Do not panick to sell if your buy objective was not met. I for one is looking out for buy opportunities in this current downturn. This is because I do not see the sort of market crash of 2009/2008 in the horizon. And there are people waiting to come back to market (they can carry my can).

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by twentypercent

That is always the dilemma, the latest gist on skyebank helped me make a decision not to pull the trigger just yet while I feel monday might be an ideal time to pull out of my UBA holdings. i have violated my 20% principle on both count and will only sell when i see the first sign of red ink on non-SLS banks...some new openings have opened up for today in the insurance sector and i might need to realign by next week.

only guys like you, KOD and pumping can accurately predict when to pull the trigger...but you no dey tell boys for here, na so so buy you dey tell us but we know say you dey sell too na

Sir, but we dey share eerything now! Ok, on when I sell, a good rule-of-thumb for me is to sell at about 20% gain (I love that your name, but I am considering raising this to 30% in view of the gradual creeping up of investor confidence), if I am not so sure of the stock and/or the appreciation was very steep like done in 5 trading days.

But if I get on the cheap, a stock with subsequent good flow of positive market sentiments/news (like Flourmills, Skye bank, Access bank), I wait to milk more. And I target to exit typically shortly before a major company announcement like full year results/corporate actions.

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by pumping

Yes, it is very easy to sell too early but how can this be avoided? It can be painful but personally, it never worries me because you can also sell too late. I just don't have the talent for getting the timing right.

I pull the trigger when I get to my target. This is something I try very hard not to violate. I avoid moving the goal post based on sentiments in the market except there is real compelling evidence of a sustained bull run.

It also does not profit anyone to be holding on to a stock after retracting 30% from the current price when it could have been sold. Also, I usually sell when I think I have found a stock with better upward potential to sink the funds into.

Just to give you an idea of why holding onto a stock for long does not appeal to me. In January, the turnover on my portfolio was 330% so I don't need mega margins to hit my target. Of course, this is just my own preferred style.

And i was thinking I am the only speculator here. The rest of y'all being investors

[pumping]

Originally Posted by waaan5

Sir, but we dey share eerything now! Ok, on when I sell, a good rule-of-thumb for me is to sell at about 20% gain (I love that your name, but I am considering raising this to 30% in view of the gradual creeping up of investor confidence), if I am not so sure of the stock and/or the appreciation was very steep like done in 5 trading days.

But if I get on the cheap, a stock with subsequent good flow of positive market sentiments/news (like Flourmills, Skye bank, Access bank), I wait to milk more. And I target to exit typically shortly before a major company announcement like full year results/corporate actions.

Chei....part in bold.....See the master!!! Buy on rumour, sell on news....

[londoncool]

Is'nt there any speculative Insurance stock for punters to peruse?

[pumping]

Originally Posted by londoncool

Is'nt there any speculative Insurance stock for punters to peruse?

A few....Lasaco, Goldinsure, Intenegins, Nem....

[eniyanman]

Originally Posted by horlads

As noted earlier, Index went DOWN...by 1.56% with 18 advances and...wait for this...FIFTY-FOUR declines.
where do we go from here?
pumping, KOD, Hispy, Eniyanman, Nosa, Waan5, Wanaj0, 20% et al....where una dey?

I no know o.

A whopping 40% (even die-hard optimists accept this will be difficult) rise in the index equates to average daily rate of ~0.16%. At this run-rate, the index should be up ~4.4%, however, YTD, it's up ~10%. This is impressive but definitely not sustainable. It begs the question, "is this another bubble?". Well, I don't know, however, having made more these past weeks than the whole of 2009, I can be pardoned for being cautious.

In my case, I have adjusted my strategy/hedge. I will continue to take profits (tomorrow, day after...) and hold cash while retaining an balanced exposure to the market. The ultimate plan is to be in a position to benefit from either a rising or falling market. One thing I don't envisage is to bring in new capital (at least not till the banks release results). Any acquistion must be funded from existing cash or from porfolio sales (using it as some form of liquidity stress test).

In conclusion, I am LONG! I expect the index to close the year higher than current level, however, I doubt it will be a straight path, there will be (perhaps, massive) corrections along the way. I reckon those who better manage liquidity will end up being the biggest winners. I may be wrong, very wrong.

Happy investing!

[pumping]

Originally Posted by eniyanman

I no know o.

A whopping 40% (even die-hard optimists accept this will be difficult) rise in the index equates to average daily rate of ~0.16%. At this run-rate, Happy investing!

Abeg, what do you mean by the 40%?

[willhenry123]

Originally Posted by nosa2

i agree with you totally, but i believe we'll be seeing the bulls reappear in a different sector. I expect the bears to chew up banking and building materials (cement), while the bulls will charge into the insurance sector and maybe (hopefully) conglomerates. In the insurance sector i'll advise we look out for goldlink and royal exchange, i expect close to 100% returns in these stocks before march ending. Personally, starting monday i'm attacking royal exchange with my full arsenal and wont stop till its 30% of my portfolio. For those who dont already know i'm a glorified petrol station attendant and hence knows didely squat about stocks, this prediction should be taken as serious as Clifford Orji's yearly stock picks (assuming he had one).

@nosa,Never really smelt this one coming. Royal exchange i undastand but goldlink i dont understand..pls help me out explainin ur rational 4goldlink lemme c if i can join u in the attack ,general sir.. ;D

[hispy99]

SEC May Dump Proposed Tenure Policy

[pumping]

Originally Posted by willhenry123

@nosa,Never really smelt this one coming. Royal exchange i undastand but goldlink i dont understand..pls help me out explainin ur rational 4goldlink lemme c if i can join u in the attack ,general sir.. ;D

Based on Q-3 results, Goldlink has forward PE of 1.78x. Of course, I will not consider insurance interim results very indicative of the full year position, but even if you discount this at 60%, it still looks good. Also, Goldlink did a reconstruction of 1 for 2 so the stocks is practically selling at less than 30k before reconstruction.

Note that we also have information about overhanging margin stocks and some board room squabbles and we should factor this in as well. To a large extent, entering this stock is speculative.

[bivins1]

Originally Posted by eniyanman

I no know o.

A whopping 40% (even die-hard optimists accept this will be difficult) rise in the index equates to average daily rate of ~0.16%. At this run-rate, the index should be up ~4.4%, however, YTD, it's up ~10%. This is impressive but definitely not sustainable. It begs the question, "is this another bubble?". Well, I don't know, however, having made more these past weeks than the whole of 2009, I can be pardoned for being cautious.

In my case, I have adjusted my strategy/hedge. I will continue to take profits (tomorrow, day after...) and hold cash while retaining an balanced exposure to the market. The ultimate plan is to be in a position to benefit from either a rising or falling market. One thing I don't envisage is to bring in new capital (at least not till the banks release results). Any acquistion must be funded from existing cash or from porfolio sales (using it as some form of liquidity stress test).

In conclusion, I am LONG! I expect the index to close the year higher than current level, however, I doubt it will be a straight path, there will be (perhaps, massive) corrections along the way. I reckon those who better manage liquidity will end up being the biggest winners. I may be wrong, very wrong.

Happy investing!

Bros welcome back. where you been hibernate? you don chop 40% profit clean mouth . na wa. i go hala you later

[annuities quotes]

Its' nice to know the latest trends of the stock market....

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by pumping

A few....Lasaco, Goldinsure, Intenegins, Nem....

Yea. Some good meat at current valuations. I believe in the long term, you cannot go wrong with those insurance coys, especially if bought at close to 50kobo as possible. Afterall, some laws guaranty them steady premiums.

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by pumping

Based on Q-3 results, Goldlink has forward PE of 1.78x. Of course, I will not consider insurance interim results very indicative of the full year position, but even if you discount this at 60%, it still looks good. Also, Goldlink did a reconstruction of 1 for 2 so the stocks is practically selling at less than 30k before reconstruction.

Note that we also have information about overhanging margin stocks and some board room squabbles and we should factor this in as well. To a large extent, entering this stock is speculative.

Now I am expecting a mini bull in some select coys in the insurance sector. Where is Micheal?

[eniyanman]

Originally Posted by pumping

Abeg, what do you mean by the 40%?

I was making an illustration. I was trying to suggest that the average daily change of ~+0.16% is needed for a massive 40% YoY increase in the index. At the current run-rate, the index will double by year-end!!

[eniyanman]

Originally Posted by bivins1

Bros welcome back. where you been hibernate? you don chop 40% profit clean mouth . na wa. i go hala you later

Bros, I no say I chop 40% o. Na you hibernate... Me full ground. The thing wey you chop remain, abeg send am.

[utuocha]

Originally Posted by pumping

Based on Q-3 results, Goldlink has forward PE of 1.78x. Of course, I will not consider insurance interim results very indicative of the full year position, but even if you discount this at 60%, it still looks good. Also, Goldlink did a reconstruction of 1 for 2 so the stocks is practically selling at less than 30k before reconstruction.

Note that we also have information about overhanging margin stocks and some board room squabbles and we should factor this in as well. To a large extent, entering this stock is speculative.

Just be cautious and remember that Goldlink recently lost a huge insurance account with a major foreign company in Nigeria. Will this not impact on their bottomline? Surely.

[muranay@yahoo.com]

Market has closed


Deals : 7,233


Volume : 580,275,624


Value : N 3,713,399,984.28

[pumping]

Good recovery in the market today. Hopefully, it is sustained.