MarketWatch

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by kokoko

This is funny...thanks for making me laugh. Someone has banned me from the bedroom since this bear runs started so kingojames should just take heart if the provost bounced him from med school.

Ban ke? Chei, laughter wan kill me for here. When you get home, dobale (prostrate) and beg for forgiveness of your sins. Next time before you buy, consult with her, so that she will not ban you again

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by Abinishio

....d man shd reason with u.... WITH CANE!!! e'gba

Kai, make una sympathize with king na. I must confess though, you had me laughing with this one

[billions]

Originally Posted by kokoko

This is funny...thanks for making me laugh. Someone has banned me from the bedroom since this bear runs started so kingojames should just take heart if the provost bounced him from med school.

The last time i updated my wife abt d performance of our portfolio:

Wife:WHY DID U ALLOW THINGS TO GET THIS BAD?(ALMOST SHOUTING).

Husband:I gave her d analysis dat i learnt from SMN(Trust me now)

Wife:THAT IS NOT A GOOD REASON,...I THINK I WILL BE D ONE TO BE MANAGING D PORTFOLIO FROM NOW ON(NOW SHOUTING)

[edunko]

Originally Posted by billions

Broses,my broker was not able 2 sell...i am ready 4 d bear hug.

Dont worry my brother, your not alone.

You know that Hungry don wire all this brokers well well during the period of 1% decline.

They are buying and selling for themselfs now.

Moreover its easier to buy now than to sell.

[citizen]

U.S. Stocks Slide to Five-Year Lows as Banks, Carmakers Tumble

By Eric Martin

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks sank and benchmark indexes slid to their lowest levels since 2003 on growing concern over the health of the financial system and survival of the nation's car industry.

Citigroup Inc. tumbled 23 percent to $6.40, a 13-year low, on a plan to buy $17.4 billion of troubled investment-fund assets. General Motors Corp. slid 9.7 percent to its lowest price since the 1940s, while Ford Motor Co. lost 25 percent. Fourteen companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 20 percent or more as government data signaled the recession is deepening and expectations grew that insurers will post more investment losses.

``Hideous day,'' said Bill Stone, who oversees $56 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. ``It's hard to put a basement on this thing.''

The S&P 500 plunged 6.1 percent to 806.58 and extended its 2008 retreat to 45 percent, poised for its worst year since 1931. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 427.47 points, or 5.1 percent, to 7,997.28. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 6.5 percent to 1,386.42. Thirty stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where 1.6 billion shares changed hands, 8.6 percent more than the three-month average.

The retreat in the U.S. followed declines in Europe and Asia as concern mounted the economic slowdown will cut profits at financial firms and commodity producers. Federal Reserve policy makers last month predicted the U.S. economy will contract through the middle of 2009, with some prepared to cut interest rates further in response, according to a record of their meeting released today.

Stocks Slide, Bonds Gain



YOU GUYS SEE THAT OURS IS JUST A TIP OF THE ICEBERG COMPARED WITH THESE OTHER GUYS IN YANKEE, JAND, E.T.C.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by billions

The last time i updated my wife abt d performance of our portfolio:

Wife:WHY DID U ALLOW THINGS TO GET THIS BAD?(ALMOST SHOUTING).

Husband:I gave her d analysis dat i learnt from SMN(Trust me now)

Wife:THAT IS NOT A GOOD REASON,...I THINK I WILL BE D ONE TO BE MANAGING D PORTFOLIO FROM NOW ON(NOW SHOUTING)

Don't blame her, This business is addictive. I am learning self control now. No more money in the market till next year come rain, come sun. Don't be surprised if you don't hear from me towards the end of the year

[citizen]

Brothers And Sisters Of Smn We Need To Look At These Values---

1)the Volume Is Not There Because Of The Lack Of Liquidity

2) Nse Has Changed The Rule Of Price Movement From 100,000 Units To 50,000 Units Thus Making Losses More Marked As Profit Takers Continue Their March

3) For Those Of Us That Have Been Buying Stocks For Ages We Know That This Is Christmas Season( + Big Sallah ) With End Of Government Financial Year Awaiting Budget. It Is Traditionally The Worst Time For Stocks To Gain Even Under The Normal Market

4)the Only Time It Gained Around This Period Was When The Stockbroker/bankers Margin Account Manipulation Caused A Slight Aberation During The So Called Boom Of The Last 2 Years


Advice: Invest Now In High Dividen Yielding Stocks E.g. Dsr,fbn,uba. Better Still For Big Boys Go Back To The Money Market And Use Those Other Instruments Like Treasury Bills, Govt. Bonds And The Good Old Fixed Deposits While Things Settle Out By February/march Next Year(when Hopefully The Budget Is Passed+implemented And We Have Liquidity Again).

For The Med Student Check Bank Phb For Those Student Loans Hopefully You Should Break Even(at Their High Interest Rates When You Finally Become Specialist In Ur Field). Do Not Gamble Important Decisions On The Stock Market Where We Deal In Paper And Prices Are Determined By What We Are Ready To Pay For It Whether Or Not There Is Good Fundamentals(it Is A Giant Casino Out There And These Ain't The Best Of Times)


May We All Survive The Blood On The Dance Floor, Amen!!!

[Michael]

Originally Posted by citizen

U.S. Stocks Slide to Five-Year Lows as Banks, Carmakers Tumble

By Eric Martin

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks sank and benchmark indexes slid to their lowest levels since 2003 on growing concern over the health of the financial system and survival of the nation's car industry.

Citigroup Inc. tumbled 23 percent to $6.40, a 13-year low, on a plan to buy $17.4 billion of troubled investment-fund assets. General Motors Corp. slid 9.7 percent to its lowest price since the 1940s, while Ford Motor Co. lost 25 percent. Fourteen companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 20 percent or more as government data signaled the recession is deepening and expectations grew that insurers will post more investment losses.

``Hideous day,'' said Bill Stone, who oversees $56 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. ``It's hard to put a basement on this thing.''

The S&P 500 plunged 6.1 percent to 806.58 and extended its 2008 retreat to 45 percent, poised for its worst year since 1931. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 427.47 points, or 5.1 percent, to 7,997.28. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 6.5 percent to 1,386.42. Thirty stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where 1.6 billion shares changed hands, 8.6 percent more than the three-month average.

The retreat in the U.S. followed declines in Europe and Asia as concern mounted the economic slowdown will cut profits at financial firms and commodity producers. Federal Reserve policy makers last month predicted the U.S. economy will contract through the middle of 2009, with some prepared to cut interest rates further in response, according to a record of their meeting released today.

Stocks Slide, Bonds Gain



YOU GUYS SEE THAT OURS IS JUST A TIP OF THE ICEBERG COMPARED WITH THESE OTHER GUYS IN YANKEE, JAND, E.T.C.

No difference they simply react faster

[citizen]

Inflation accelerates to 14.7% on account of food, energy crises
Wednesday, 19 November 2008 00:40

Inflation which has maintained an upward trend since the beginning of the year accelerated to 14.7 percent in October as against 13 percent recorded in September, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed Tuesday.
The NBS in Abuja yesterday indicated that the rise was caused mainly by global increase in food as well as energy prices and remains the highest recorded since December 2005 when inflation settled at 11.6 percent.
“The year on year consumer price level as at October 2008 rose by 14.7 percent. This was higher than the 13 percent observed in September 2008. The corresponding urban and rural indices rose by 13.8 percent and 15.2 percent respectively over the period”, the bureau said.
Investigations by BusinessDay revealed that the present figure is quite a huge leap compared to the single digit rate of about eight percent last year October. It would be recalled that inflation had in June 2008 leapt into a double digit equally on account of prevailing food prices after much hopes that it could be retained at a single digit within the year.
Government had hoped that inflation rate caused mainly by the food crisis could ease with improved rains expected to boost harvest. Observers believe that except a drastic action is taken by the government to boost food production, inflation may continue in this trend with persistent double digit range.
Although food year-on-year index eased by 0.5 percent when compared with the previous September 2008 figure, it rose from a fall of 0.1 percent in October 2007 to 19.2 percent in October 2008.
“The increase in food prices is more pronounced in the prices of staples such as rice, maize and beans. The food inflation rate has been on the decline after July 2008 figure of 20.9 percent. The figure lowered to 18.8 and 17.1 for August and September 2008 respectively before it rose again to 19.2 percent in October 2008”, it disclosed.



FALLING STOCK PRICES + DOUBLE DIGIT INFLATION. I HOPE OUR GOVERNMENT IS THINKING OF DOING SOMETHING FAST.

[hispy99]

Thought I shoudl share this with the house. It is a paper on market timing and I have included the abstract here, for those like me that are too lazy to read the full article.

SSRN-Black Swans and Market Timing: How Not to Generate Alpha by Javier Estrada


Black Swans and Market Timing: How Not to Generate Alpha

Abstract:
Do investors obtain their long term returns smoothly and steadily over time, or is their long term performance largely determined by the return of just a few outliers? How likely are investors to successfully predict the best days to be in and out of the market? The evidence from 15 international equity markets and over 160,000 daily returns indicates that a few outliers have a massive impact on long term performance. On average across all 15 markets, missing the best 10 days resulted in portfolios 50.8% less valuable than a passive investment; and avoiding the worst 10 days resulted in portfolios 150.4% more valuable than a passive investment. Given that 10 days represent less than 0.1% of the days considered in the average market, the odds against successful market timing are staggering.

[hispy99]

The Perils of Investing in Your Employer
Companies have long awarded employees with shares and discount options. But Citigroup's recent history shows these plans can backfire. By BRETT ARENDS

Don't invest too much money in your employer's stock. If you want to know why, look at Citigroup.

The troubled bank has just this week announced another 53,000 layoffs.

Thousands of those workers have lost a large slice of their savings, as well as their job, thanks to the 85% collapse in the bank's stock price over the past two years.

Citigroup, like so many banks and other big companies, paid many of its workers partly in shares. It did so with good intentions: To motivate them, and to give them a piece of the rock.

Instead they've lost billions. And many suffered further, because they had to pay hefty income taxes when they got the stock. Today, for some, their shares may actually be worth less than the taxes they paid.

(One way to help minimize this risk, if you are in this situation, is to pay for these taxes by selling stock. Citigroup says most of its employees do this.)

The pain will be felt at all levels throughout the organization, not merely in the executive suites. Citigroup says about a quarter of its staff gets paid partly in stock. That includes around 100,000 workers who earn less than $100,000 a year. (Citigroup did end that program last year.)

From 2003 through the end of 2007, according to recent accounts, Citigroup awarded 309 million shares worth $14.2 billion to employees.

At today's price, they're worth just $2.6 billion.

Citigroup has run a number of programs and stock awards for employees. Those who qualified were automatically awarded part of their bonuses in shares, making them investors by force of circumstance rather than choice.

Of course some people cashed in their shares before the hurricane hit. But others doubtless held on.

And many couldn't sell. Citigroup stock awards take four years to "vest," or pass into the employee's hands, after they are first made.

At the end of last year, employees were still waiting for 153.2 million shares. Those were worth $6.5 billion, or $50.70 a share, when they were initially awarded. Today? About $1.3 billion.

Employees at the top, of course, have suffered the biggest paper losses. But they are usually the ones with the biggest piles of outside savings as well. It's those near the bottom who may feel the pain most.

It's important to draw lessons for the future.

Before investing in your employer, consider how much you are already financially committed to the company.

Try some math. If you're hoping to earn $50,000 a year from your employer for the next 20 years, in some ways it's as if you already have $623,000 of your wealth tied up in the company.

That's what an equivalent annuity would cost you, assuming 5% interest. It's not a perfect analogy: You don't have to work for the annuity to get the money. But for the unemployed the challenge isn't the labor, it's finding the income stream. And we haven't even counted the value of your job's benefits either.

If your company pays you partly in stock, you may find yourself an investor without any real say in the matter. But when those shares come free of restrictions, you will have to choose whether to sell or hold on. Many employers also give staff the chance to invest in the company independently of any bonuses, including the right to buy shares at a discount.

You're already heavily invested in your employer and your career. It's probably your biggest investment. Increasing that exposure with stock awards involves a lot of extra risk. Depending on circumstances, you are probably better off investing that money elsewhere. As thousands of bank staff have discovered, too late.

Corrections & Amplifications

Before ending the program last year, Citigroup automatically awarded employees with shares. This article incorrectly said Citigroup employees could choose to receive bonuses in shares.

[hispy99]

Issuing houses bear brunt of failed public offers Thursday, 20 November 2008 00:26 ABDUL IMOYO

Business activities in the primary market segment of the Nigerian capital market which were virtually paralysed during the recent market meltdown have forced issuing houses to bear the consequences of some failed public offers.

Business Day’s investigation revealed that as the few offers that opened during the period recorded poor patronage from investors issuing houses were compelled to carry more risk given the mandatory regulatory requirement that 80 percent of public issues must be underwritten by them.

A report by Sterling Capital Markets Limited, the investment banking division of Sterling Bank plc for the third quarter of 2008 which was obtained by Business Day last week noted that “many quoted companies that planned to raise money during the period had to suspend their plans, given the sharp decline in their market prices, which would have meant that they would be shortchanged”.

It was gathered that the current situation of the market had been challenging for capital market operators. Capital market sources informed Business Day that the issuing houses were compelled to warehouse the unsubscribed shares until the situation in the market improves. They, however, expressed doubts if such shares could grow to the actual price at which they were offered to investors in the primary market.

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) All Share Index lost 30.4 percent between March, when it reached its peak at end September, 2008, while the market capitalisation lost 22.2percent over the same period, closing at N9.83 trillion in September, 2008

Sterling Capital noted that the withdrawal of the hedge funds was partly responsible for the decline in stock market, which started since March. In late September, the Central Bank of Nigeria had to intervene, through easing of monetary policy to preserve the stability of the Nigerian financial system.
The analysts were of the view that as a developing country, which is in the process of integrating with the global financial market, Nigeria has a lot to learn from the current global financial crisis. “The question has been asked as to what will happen to Nigerian Banks, for instance, if property prices, particularly in major commercial centres in Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt begin to crash. The conclusion is that, while a strong and healthy financial system is a sine-qua-none to a virile economy, risk management capacity and market discipline cannot be relegated in place of greed and bad choices. This is why greater supervision and effective monitoring by regulatory authorities cannot be overemphasised”.

Apart from the present global financial downturn, they noted that various regulatory pronouncements may have contributed to the dismal performance of the Nigerian Stock Market in the first nine month of 2008. The market had began the year on a bullish note after which the trend was reversed following the various regulatory pronouncements, some of which were not well received by the market. “Some of the policy measures included the increase in the capital base of Stock broking firms to N1billion, the purported ban of margin loans and the increase in the volume of trade required for a share price to move from 15,000 to 100,000 units”.

According to the report, “The developments in the Nigerian Stock Market was only a mirror of what was happening in the global stock market, even though the fundamental causes may be slightly different. Even then, although Nigerian institutions may not have been exposed to the subprime mortgage market in the U.S., or the global credit crisis which has affected international capital flow also contributed to the liquidity squeeze in Nigeria and therefore the stock market crash”.

Apart from Ghana and few others, virtually all major markets in Africa also lost in line with the global trend. South Africa lost 15.39 percent, Egypt declined by 34.17 percent, Kenya dropped by 21.92 percent and Namibia 32.68 percent.

However, the Ghanaian market returned 50.32 percent, while Tunisia and Morocco returned 28.97 percent and 5.18 percent respectively, probably reflecting their disconnect from the international financial market while all the advanced economies also recorded losses. The New York markets lost 26 percent, London lost 29 percent. Similarly Tokyo and Hong Kong lost 32 percent and 40 percent, respectively.

[muranay@yahoo.com]

Originally Posted by hispy99

I must confess that I still do not understand what Obama has got to do with the rally. I am just reading a report now by an academic linking stock return to song volatility. According to Prof Maymin, you can now use the volatility of music to predict stock performance. I have never heard that one before, but I guess if you look at data 1 billion ways, you will find something.

Though it may look abstract since it is not directly related or connected but that is part of chemistry of market behaviour.

Let me use this analogy: in sports especially football if team(Super Eagle, Brazil, Spain, England,Chelsea, Man U, Real Mardrid, Liverpool,etc) you support win medals everyone feel happy for a moment and forget about your problems at that moment but after sometime moment will go into history and you are back to the reality.

For Obama - an African man to win that prestigious WHITE HOUSE seat is a great achivement for Nigerians and Africa at large so there was a merriment or happiness moment for Nigerians because it is a good news and we forgot about our challenges for that moment.

Also some speculators thinking that there was going to be immediate Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from Foreign portfolio managers took position leading to rush of stocks.

But after sometime we are back to reality of our challenges:

Firstly the merriment faded away gradually.


Secondly, it became clear that Obama was not going to work with magic rather by processes which may take time to materialize thus FDI may not come immediately.

Hence, people that can not stay long in the market has to look for exit route.