MarketWatch

[citizen]

Alarm! Alarm!! Alarm!!! Alarm!!!!!

Guys Three Things Are Happening:-
1) If You Read My Post On The Crash Of The Naira Against The Dollar You Will See That Foreign Investors Are Actively Still Divesting From The Nigerian Market And Demanding Dollars To Move Out After Share Dumping Of Course.

2) Soludo Wants To Preserve The Foreign Reserves Which Stood At 57 Billion Dollars Last Count From This Huge Demand For Dollars Including All Our 419 Banks That Borrow In Dollars At A Cheaper Rate To Lend To Us Here At Exorbitant Rates--these Loans Are Maturing And They Are Therefore Dollar Hunting Also

3) Crude Oil Was Below $49 Yesterday So The Federal Government Urgently Needs To Devalue The Currency To Fund Next Years Budget Due To The Reduced Earnings So



Advice :- Keep Your Forex Especially Euros And Get Out Of The Naira Asap As We Await This Impending Devaluation Of The Local Currency

[citizen]

World economy 'weakest since 30s'

Poorer countries have also been hit
The United Nations says the world economy faces its worst downturn since the Great Depression.

It expects world economic output to shrink by as much as 0.4% in 2009, due to a slump among developed countries - particularly the US and in Europe.

This would mark the world economy's first year of contraction since the 1930s, the UN said.

The report added there had been complacency about the impact of the financial crisis on poorer countries.

"It seems inevitable that the major countries will see significant contraction in the immediate period ahead and that recovery may not materialise any time soon, even if the bail-out and stimulus package succeed," it says.

Day by day, we are getting closer to the pessimistic scenario

Rob Vos, chief economist, UN Secretariat

The UN expects developed economies to shrink by up to 1.5%, while developing nations should expand by at least 2.7%.

But because of higher population growth in developing countries, income per capita for the world as a whole is expected to fall in 2009.

And the slowing of growth in the poorest countries "suggests a significant setback in the progress made in poverty reduction in many developing countries over the past few years."

Pessimistic

The UN's World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009 report gives three forecasts for growth next year - a baseline forecast of 1% growth, a pessimistic scenario of a 0.4% contraction and an optimistic scenario of 1.6% growth.

This compares with growth of 2.5% in 2008 and 3.8% in 2007.

Rob Vos, chief economist at the UN Secretariat and co-author of the report, told BBC News that the gloomy forecast was a distinct possibility unless financial markets calmed down and bank lending quickly returned to normal levels.

"Day by day, we are getting closer to the pessimistic scenario," he said.

The world economy last contracted in the 1930s amid the Great Depression, he added.

Reform

The report said that developed economies have led the downturn, but that the global nature of trade and finance meant that economic weakness had spread rapidly to developing countries.

It warned that the international community had been complacent about the impact of the global financial crisis on poorer countries.

They are facing higher borrowing costs and lower export growth.

The UN also says that the downturn highlights key failures in the international financial system.

The reliance on the dollar as the sole reserve currency poses risks for developing countries, since a collapse in the value of the dollar could have severe effects on their earnings.

The report also calls for increased funding for the IMF and World Bank, greater international policy coordination, particularly in relation to exchange rates, and fundamental reform of the system of financial regulation.

And it says that developing countries need mechanisms to "mitigate the damaging effects of volatile capital flows and commodity prices" including additional funds during downturns when private flows tend to dry up.

The UN usually publishes its annual economic report in January but it brought forward the release of the main chapter to coincide with the UN Conference on Financing for Development in Doha, Qatar.

The conference aims to track progress on development aid given fears that rich countries will cut back on aid as a result of the looming recession

[ayemco]

Naira Crashes against Dollar at Inter-bank Market
•Sheds N1.11 at official market
By Ayodele Aminu, 12.02.2008

Barely five days after the Nigerian currency, the naira, recorded its first major depreciation (99 kobo) in the last three years at the inter-bank foreign exchange market, it continued its free fall yesterday, losing N7 against the United States dollar.
The naira, which had recorded relative stability over the last three years, also shed N1.11 against the dollar yesterday at the official market - the Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS). It had last Wednesday depreciated by 4 kobo against the dollar.
The inter-bank foreign exchange market is where banks, on behalf of their customers, buy foreign exchange from one another to meet their daily needs, while the WDAS moderated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is the official market where foreign exchange end users through their banks bid for foreign exchange.
The WDAS, introduced in February 2006 to bridge the gap between the official and black market, opens for trading twice a week – Mondays and Wednesdays.
The naira, which opened for trading at N117.79: $1 yesterday at the official market, closed at N119.50: $1, because the apex bank could not meet the demand of foreign exchange end users who demanded $1.3 billion out of which the apex bank supplied just $100 million.
This was also the case last Wednesday when banks demanded $1 billion but got $105 million, prompting the inter-bank market, which had opened at N118.51: $1 to depreciate to an all-year low at N120: $1, before retreating to N119.50: $1. This development had compelled the naira to lose 99 kobo against the dollar.
Further depreciation of the naira at the inter-bank market yesterday, according to market operators, was triggered by the development at the official market where the banking watchdog could not meet the demand.
Given these scenario, the naira, which opened for trading at the inter-bank market yesterday at N119.50: $1, depreciated to an all-year low at N126.50: $1, translating to N7 depreciation against the dollar.........

[ayemco]

Banks and stock broking firms are now in a fix over margin accounts opened for some customers at the peak of share price boom at the nation’s capital market early this year. The Central Bank of Nigeria had put the loss at a conservative figure of about N900 billion.
Indeed, some of the accounts were opened with banks bearing the cost one hundred percent during the public offerings ostensibly to meet up with the initial hypes that their offerings would naturally be oversubscribed.
Consequently, the firms are finding it difficult to play by the rules of the game which requires servicing of the accounts at intervals, since most of the clients have little or no initial stake in the transactions. But analysts say that the present predicament which has resulted in loss of over N1 trillion was as a result of their insatiable appetite for floats and lack of adequate knowledge of the market, among others.
Specifically, BusinessDay gathered that the firms wanted quick harvest from the soaring share prices then and consequently exposed themselves to the inherent dangers of speculating with borrowed money. Most banks in particular jettisoned the rules of the game and gave out large sums of money to friends, staff, other corporate organisations and in some cases used fronts to purchase the stocks.

Part of why we are seeing inconsistence growth patterns in banks result this last quarter.

[ayemco]

Matters got worse today.. 10 gainers phew!!!!

[billions]

Originally Posted by ayemco

Matters got worse today.. 10 gainers phew!!!!

My advice is that guys shd not sell if they dont need the money too urgently.

I am convinced that the market showed some +ve signs before this free fall started...this present drop shd be bk of d coming muslim/xtian celebration.

...things shd be much better by Q1 of 2009.

"Nothing dey happen"

[ayemco]

Originally Posted by billions

My advice is that guys shd not sell if they dont need the money too urgently.

I am convinced that the market showed some +ve signs before this free fall started...this present drop shd be bk of d coming muslim/xtian celebration.

...things shd be much better by Q1 of 2009.

"Nothing dey happen"

Na true my brother. Siddon look na im we dey.

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by citizen

World economy 'weakest since 30s'

Poorer countries have also been hit
The United Nations says the world economy faces its worst downturn since the Great Depression.

It expects world economic output to shrink by as much as 0.4% in 2009, due to a slump among developed countries - particularly the US and in Europe.

This would mark the world economy's first year of contraction since the 1930s, the UN said.

The report added there had been complacency about the impact of the financial crisis on poorer countries.

"It seems inevitable that the major countries will see significant contraction in the immediate period ahead and that recovery may not materialise any time soon, even if the bail-out and stimulus package succeed," it says.

Day by day, we are getting closer to the pessimistic scenario

Rob Vos, chief economist, UN Secretariat

The UN expects developed economies to shrink by up to 1.5%, while developing nations should expand by at least 2.7%.

But because of higher population growth in developing countries, income per capita for the world as a whole is expected to fall in 2009.

And the slowing of growth in the poorest countries "suggests a significant setback in the progress made in poverty reduction in many developing countries over the past few years."

Pessimistic

The UN's World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009 report gives three forecasts for growth next year - a baseline forecast of 1% growth, a pessimistic scenario of a 0.4% contraction and an optimistic scenario of 1.6% growth.

This compares with growth of 2.5% in 2008 and 3.8% in 2007.

Rob Vos, chief economist at the UN Secretariat and co-author of the report, told BBC News that the gloomy forecast was a distinct possibility unless financial markets calmed down and bank lending quickly returned to normal levels.

"Day by day, we are getting closer to the pessimistic scenario," he said.

The world economy last contracted in the 1930s amid the Great Depression, he added.

Reform

The report said that developed economies have led the downturn, but that the global nature of trade and finance meant that economic weakness had spread rapidly to developing countries.

It warned that the international community had been complacent about the impact of the global financial crisis on poorer countries.

They are facing higher borrowing costs and lower export growth.

The UN also says that the downturn highlights key failures in the international financial system.

The reliance on the dollar as the sole reserve currency poses risks for developing countries, since a collapse in the value of the dollar could have severe effects on their earnings.

The report also calls for increased funding for the IMF and World Bank, greater international policy coordination, particularly in relation to exchange rates, and fundamental reform of the system of financial regulation.

And it says that developing countries need mechanisms to "mitigate the damaging effects of volatile capital flows and commodity prices" including additional funds during downturns when private flows tend to dry up.

The UN usually publishes its annual economic report in January but it brought forward the release of the main chapter to coincide with the UN Conference on Financing for Development in Doha, Qatar.

The conference aims to track progress on development aid given fears that rich countries will cut back on aid as a result of the looming recession

There is nothing looming about this recession anymore. The US and Japan are already in recession and the UK will soon join the shortly. Just be thankful we are not in iceland. Iceland's economy is projected to shrink by 10% next year and their currency is no longer traded. Unemployment more than doubled from 0.8% in Oct last year to 1.9% in Oct 2008 and it was projected to cross 3% last month.

[faoogoke]

Originally Posted by ayemco

Na true my brother. Siddon look na im we dey.

My advice for members who are deep in the market is for them to take a long holiday from stock monitoring and trading. My take on the market is that recovery is still a long way ahead. It is tied to the recovery of the U.S and Europeans economies. Rememeber that it was funds from these continents that push the market indicies up.
What I would do is take position on some stocks and wait for the boom to come again. When that will be? In my opinion a year and a half/ two years from now.

[muranay@yahoo.com]

Originally Posted by faoogoke

My advice for members who are deep in the market is for them to take a long holiday from stock monitoring and trading. My take on the market is that recovery is still a long way ahead. It is tied to the recovery of the U.S and Europeans economies. Rememeber that it was funds from these continents that push the market indicies up.
What I would do is take position on some stocks and wait for the boom to come again. When that will be? In my opinion a year and a half/ two years from now.

NO SHAKING as long as those companies declaring fantastic results are not making fool of us by doctoring their reports.

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by citizen

BRIEF EXAMPLES :- NUHU RIBADU, EL-RUFAI, OKONJO-IWEALA E.T.C. GUYS READ THIS:

Why foreign military intervention may be necessary in Nigeria– U.S. analysts
By JIDE BABALOLA
Published: Sunday, 30 Nov 2008
The United States’ National Intelligence Council has predicted a bleak future for Nigeria if certain identified indicators were not addressed before 2025.

The council comprises analysts, academic and other experts in the U.S.

Presidency spokesman, Mr. Segun Adeniyi, refused to pick our correspondents call on Saturday and he did not respond to a text message on the issue.

Increase in the population of unemployed youths, growing availability of arms, climate change, declining agricultural production and religious extremism were seen as serious potential threats to Nigeria’s future peace and stability.

In a prognosis of Nigeria’s future contained in a 120-page report entitled “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”, they predict an increasing likelihood of foreign military intervention to end the Niger Delta crisis and stabilise oil exports.

“Ethnic and political violence and criminal activity currently threaten a large portion of Nigeria’s oil production. State failure in the key energy producing country may require military intervention by outside powers to stabilise energy flows”, the report stated.

The observation is contained in part of the November 2008 document released by the NIC.

The report emphasised that serious internal conflict that was reminiscent of the Nigerian civil war “is not inconceivable” in Nigeria before 2025.

The report includes inputs from the Central Intelligence Agency and several other bodies that are active in analysing intelligence through networks that span the globe.

While the report also warned that the US’ dominance in world affairs would likely reduce as multi-polar power blocs comprising increasingly affluent countries such as India and China begin to assert more influence on global affairs.

For Nigeria, the document said threats of serious internal stability might result from long-existing but largely latent problems including religious extremism, youth unemployment, climate change and growing population.

“Unless employment conditions change dramatically in parlous youth-bulge states such as Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen, these countries will remain ripe for continued instability and state failure…

“In those countries that are likely to struggle with youth bulges and weak economic underpinnings—such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Yemen—the radical Salafi trend of Islam is likely to gain traction. Types of conflict we have not seen for a while could re-emerge…

“The populations of already parlous youth bulge states—such as Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen—are projected to remain on rapid-growth trajectories. Pakistan’s and Nigeria’s populations are each projected to grow by about 55 million people…”

According to the authors of the report, rapid climate change and increasing rural-urban migration in Nigeria and 19 other countries will affect seriously agricultural production and “sows the seeds for social conflict”.

“The problem is that some of these are not small, geo-politically insignificant countries. Some—like Nigeria—we in the developed world rely on for needed resources.

“Because of the encroaching desertification in the north, the religious clash between Muslims and Christians is heating up. Another Biafra-like civil war—only this time along North-South lines—is not inconceivable,” it stated.

Predicting an increasing dominance of Islamic ideology in countries with Moslem population, the report expressed fears that radical Islamic beliefs of the Salafi doctrine would gain ascendance in Nigeria and other countries.

“In those countries that are likely to struggle with youth bulges and weak economic underpinnings—such as in Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen—the radical Salafi trend is likely to gain traction…”

“The challenge of Islamic activism could produce a more intense backlash of Christian activism. Nigeria, Ethiopia, and other places in Africa will remain battlegrounds in this sectarian struggle,” the report added.

SHOULD WE BE MOVING OUR INVESTMENTS OUT OF NAIJA??????

Okay here we go again. From becoming one of the top 20 economies in 2020 to the safest economy in the world to another 'Sudan' in 2025. Everybody is really confused about this entity called Nigeria. Now I am also getting confused too

[zainabusman]

Originally Posted by citizen

Alarm! Alarm!! Alarm!!! Alarm!!!!!

Guys Three Things Are Happening:-
1) If You Read My Post On The Crash Of The Naira Against The Dollar You Will See That Foreign Investors Are Actively Still Divesting From The Nigerian Market And Demanding Dollars To Move Out After Share Dumping Of Course.

2) Soludo Wants To Preserve The Foreign Reserves Which Stood At 57 Billion Dollars Last Count From This Huge Demand For Dollars Including All Our 419 Banks That Borrow In Dollars At A Cheaper Rate To Lend To Us Here At Exorbitant Rates--these Loans Are Maturing And They Are Therefore Dollar Hunting Also

3) Crude Oil Was Below $49 Yesterday So The Federal Government Urgently Needs To Devalue The Currency To Fund Next Years Budget Due To The Reduced Earnings So



Advice :- Keep Your Forex Especially Euros And Get Out Of The Naira Asap As We Await This Impending Devaluation Of The Local Currency

Predicting short term direction of currencies is a difficult skill. In August i bought pound sterling at N238 to 1 pound. Last week Monday i bought at N187. At the Airport on Wed 26th, i bought the pound at N180. Who would have anticipated this collapse back in August?

When it comes to currencies, unless u are really loaded it is not usually worth it speculating on the direction of exchange rates.

[zainabusman]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

Okay here we go again. From becoming one of the top 20 economies in 2020 to the safest economy in the world to another 'Sudan' in 2025. Everybody is really confused about this entity called Nigeria. Now I am also getting confused too

Pls forget about all those reports predicting gloom for Nigeria. They have been saying it for ages and Nigeria is still alive and will be alive and kicking God willing in 2200 and beyond!

Similar so called experts predicted France will be a super power by now, where is France right now? The only thing that is certain about these kinds of forecast is that they are usually wrong.

[billions]

The index decreased by abt 2.1%...