Is a stock market crash possible in Nigeria?

[Tunde]

Please define 'stock market crash' so that we know what we are voting on. Does it mean a 5% drop in one day or 100% drop such that all tocks become worthless or something in-between?

[oseitutu]

Originally Posted by oseitutu

Members, please visit wikipedia and read this beautiful essay on stock market crashes.bwalaman is correct. Months to years is bear market, crashes take days. Now looking at our market critically, since only a few people are yet controlling the market, we are at the moment more vulnurable to panic. Having said that, I have strong confidence in NSE. In 10-15 years time we will be leading the SANE countries of Africa.

Stock market crash is defined in the wikipedia link in my previous post. I am not an expert, you know.

[oseitutu]

"...We are highly concerned about the alleged price manipulation currently pervading the market; firms are buying their own shares through brokerage firms to boost their share prices either to keep up with a rival firm, to avoid disappointing investors who bought into their recent public offers, to offer their shares at a designated price for a future public offer and to propel the non-savvy investor to “chase the market.”

People have lost belief in fundamentals and are basically buying any stock in sight. Caution should be the watchword. The shallowness of our market is allowing this to happen. We need to have short selling in Nigeria and market makers to give the market a balance and reduce manipulative activities. We will delve more into this in subsequent editions.

Majority of stocks are still overvalued and will correct themselves without warning at any time."....See proshare blog entry

Is a stock market crash iminent? The reviews from proshare and other brokers are begining to hint it. Members beware.

[Onwuka Iroabuchi, S]

What we need a separation of central bank of Nigeria from our federal reserve. That is creating a federal system like the Americans not that heeditary bought stock exchange like the Europeans. I would have recommend some books for you to read concerning this incident in the united states...that is when banks were the only feature in the U.S stock market hugging all the action, forcing investors to wait on the next best war to free themsleves from the clutches of banks . When this sort of things happens in any economy, you are either witnessing huge capital flows from federal Government without supplementary resource as per money generated by individual states or you have much money chasing few goods. That is to say, we have enough money in circulation but it follows one major route and one major spend system. Yet we can ask this question...why is CBN so selective with our banks if banks are publicly traded.? If banks are in it like the rest of us why that attention. The accreditated banks get to decide our lending rightd at same time generate money through stock market. So who is offering securities and who is buying?. When banks have total dominion over public trade, securites, auctions and lending rights then that the country is already in decline and using Nigeria as an example, right bellow these banks are foreign companies. That's a mouth full...which another way of saying that our country is already in foreign hands. A further push on the subject will lead banks to creat a culture of class/wealth. Think flat volatility...without speed bumps and very low ball movement. BORING...stuff, predictable, predictable, predictable curve. We are not an active market when banks are the only once doing so good.

[c kenneths]

Good day all, from what I could glean out of Onwuka Iroabuchi’spost about a possible stock market crash in NSE, he seems to be complaining that only banks are having good performances and he feel its wrong. I think the guy has some very good reasons to feel so. Are banks the focal point in the regulatory bodies functions, yes. But are there any unseen hands pulling the strings to move the puppets that run the banks?, I think not.

Central banks can regulate banks or do you want them to regulate football matches?

There is one thing we must look at here, Soludo was trying to explain to any curious observer to his policies in Nigeria, that he wants to start with the banks cause they are the ones to draw others, they are the ones to give credit to other companies for expansions and other investments, they can indeed carry other economic activities, we cannot start to argue if banks are the backbone of any economy.

If other companies submit good proposals, the banks, now with excess cash can lend thereby providing much needed cheap funds and at the same time improve their own profitability. Job security can also be enhanced by the activities of these banks on other sectors.

I believe other sectors in our economy will still perform when some infrastructure has been put in place.

Foreign interest in our economy is justified. I mean we are doing better than their own markets and its only logical that they look in here to see how to profit, and yes they can take their leave when they want, so can I.

[Onwuka Iroabuchi, S]

c. kenneth

"foreign interest"

you got it wrong...currency is the problem and the solution. We need all the "foreign interest" but to attract foreign market is to defend. You can't protect business from hints of corruption if you let them do as they well please. In Nigeria as I speak, some banks and corperation in Lagos in Kaduna can only deal with dollars. This is bad business and highly exploitative, something can never happen in US. If you doubt me, try sending Nigerian Naira through Western Union to pick Naira in the US. Perhaps not our Naira...try Pounds or EU through Western Union to US and vice versa and see what happens.

There is a constrast between "market efficiency" and "price"...and it was a Harvard Professor...whose name I hardly remember that dealt on this topic sometime...1982, advicing Japan to transpose thier wealth of technos into US market by directly investing in US. They did...and still do and will. Japan was an overnight heavy for dealing with US market and selling in US prices. The intergrated market of the Americans and size of population gave a needed advantage. That is, they sold quality at a cheap price...what China is doing today...and still made product for thier home supply until they ruled technology market, including automobiles and then up'ed' the price. Conversion rate is 125/6 for US dollars and has been.

What you need in Nigeria is not foreign currency to drag down price...what you need is market integration and direct investment. Direct investment spur mass production but it is the supply penetration of companies involved and 'the retraceable' that reduce inflation...or at least propel Federal reserve or CBN to stay ahead of the inflation curve. I wouldn't like to drag this issue my brother...may I however remind you that companies who are not there to stay are only interested in premium prices...e.g offering thier own country's prices to your. Think market colonialism. Think Argentina and think Chile. In fact there is such a thing as "transition strategy" strategy that is at play to motivate a constant mobility of small business admin. from a lesser groud to a higher. The wealth of Nations is not measured by huge capacity for wealth...but for how quickly a nation can raise more of it's citizens, from poverty to relative riches and riches to working wealth.

[c kenneths]

I quite understand your concern for the protection of the Nigerian market from market colonialism from the American market policies, which you think will do more harm than good in our markets, but you are still not seeing this from the perspective of the ordinary man in the Nigerian street. Your points are well noted and I will only try to make these clarifications.

1. We in Nigeria are not too keen about spending dollars or doing any financial transactions in any other foreign currency except the naira. It will be crazy for me to accept any payments in dollars cause no one will take it from me, market women wont touch it one bit and most purchases in consumables are done with local cash as these illiterate market women don’t know and cares less about exchange rates.

2. We have observed our Naira at almost the same exchange rate to the dollar for a straight four years, and still believe the CBN is doing some things to stabilize the exchange rate if not to strengthen the local currency to gain on other major world currencies.

3. We have not yet started to feel any adverse impact of American currency policies against us or our markets.


4. We feel that it’s a welcome development for any foreign interest to come to our economy in whatsoever form, equity, loan, takeovers, or any FDI. It’s an improvement from our previous situation when we were a pariah nation.

5. We have seen an astronomic rise in our economic indices since the foreign interest in our markets began, and I feel this is just a tip of the proverbial iceberg.

6. Our economy is still not in the legion of the Japanese economy and a lot of sectors, which are potential money spinners are still untapped, take the power sector, agriculture, the mines, even the telecom sector is still performing below its full capacity.

7. What we even see is a situation where the masses are reaping handsome rewards from capital appreciation in stock prices which are rising in anticipation of more foreign investments and folks down here are smiling to the banks, there is now an increased awareness of the potentials of the stock market to turn paupers into millionaires.
All the same your contributions are very insightful; they serve to warn us of the antics of these foreign powers especially in a developing market like ours.
Bye.

[Onwuka Iroabuchi, S]

Bros...Mr. C Keneth,

What you meant to suggest by your eight thematics is that we need foreign investors. That is quite different from my stand on foreign currency in Nigeria. There is a contrast that I invoked in my two post... and that is the relationship market efficieny and price. That is to say that price is equal to value and value depends on demand and on buying power. The buying power of any currency in the world depend on government fundamentas with respect to natural monopoly and exclusivist rights. These can be offered to would be DIRECT INVESTORS in exchange for cheap pricing of thier merchandise.

In some countries in world, this is not possible because the population size is way too small to sponsor any form of "conversion" and "replacement" or any form of "penetration". There is such a thing as you know as supply penetration and major "spread". In countries where there are new grounds for growth and development...e.g Nigeria, investors are more than welcome to chart and widen narrow sales path into the 400 city and towns in the country, some of whom are so disconnected with each other that what happens in one part of the country cannot necesarily affect what happens in another part of the country. In a sense, there is no Data market and there is no way to financially speculate.


The power of many does not lie in one...that is refferencing "Walmart"...with over 5 thousand stores all over the world. Thier distribution network is rapid that a product hitting auction block today is ready for sale the next possible second and that production and chains of communication had been in the making for at least three months. When these product hit destination...they are already factorsed in as disposable. Sold perhaps at the cheapest unit of exchange...1 dollar. When market had moved around these at 10% gain...Walmart is still top.

How can I explain to you that 1$ is as far mature investors are concerned is actually equal to 1 #naira and 1 #N is equal to 1#Cedi and so forth. The problem with our country sometimes is that we feel so enamored about this exchange rate and it's sordid advanatage that we tend to forget that the dollars and any other foreign currency is nothing else than a chemical paper fabric used as receipt. There is nothing, absolutely nothing magic about them. The only difference is that these countries understood that Value is equal to demand and demand is retreaceable to how many transactions around the world that be done with a particular unit of exchange.

Common example no 2, how many Nigerian football teams will be willing to pay Wayne Rooney of Manchester United 36 Million pounds to play for 3 years in Nigeria. Perhaps Enyimba...but be rest assured that workers in Abia State will be owed arears of 10 years and counting, while stake holders should look beyond 20 years for any profitability. Then the Mr/Mc question is how many football legs does the player Rooney has to be paid 9 000 000 000 Naira.

Perhaps I would have given you a heads-up on two things...one, expansionary clause as far as risk management/attorney consent and two, expansionary ratio...which is liquid market comparative on the performance of any a specific unit of exchange versus the impact of globisation. The trade capacity of any economy is based on these measurements.

The question is, what is the probable World market reaction to 16 billion Naira profit by Oceanic Bank within three months when City Group merely reported an annual 36 Billion for last year. Well to a Nigerian, Dollars is not Naira which is true...but what are the percentage profits and what are the percentage ratio. For a country like Nigeria with a mere 84 billion dollar annual profit, 4.6 percent growth, 25 major banks and much fewer insurance companies and a population of 135 million people, you can be certain that 16 billion Niara in 3 months is huge profit.

This can suggest different things to different people but one thing I would not fret to add is that such high yield in a short time in a very young NSE only reflect the weakness of the company. You can imagine market reaction to this...many people might be dragged on by it's yield and may and may see the profit. Even with a 25% deviation for the rest of the year and normal bais of 3-6 months-the feature is still too risky.

In an exchange driven and disaffected market...we can expect yield and high volume in trade...and this is possible through placing our money on the most likely to succeed e,g Bank. Nigerian Banks last two decades have made money continously and following that trend... they are like to generate money in the ntext 20 years.

There is much money in the country...at least that's what it seems but this money can buy very little. Of course with a few importation hhere and there...huge companies can expect to invest little and run huge returns. While there is nothing wrong with that...I guese the real question is why inflation still 15% when an average market trader is looking to better his/her position with aggregate rounding-off of any sale to the nearest 1 dollar. This is psychological inflation. Inflation that is not very visible but is in there eating into the stem on the country proving a strain on the Naira and weighing down heavily on the country. This strain is brought about with the,
floating of several foreign currency and the growth rate is artificial.

You might wonder why...but I think we need to refer back to USA
between 1800-1850..., that is America before thier civil war. Two people should to your mind one...Thomas Jefferson and the other is Alexandre Hamilton. These two were both free traders...but Hamilton insisted that only that dollars should be used to floor trade in New york and only the banks and exchange unit should provide us with the incentive to increase and decrease interest rate...depending on the unit cost...but jefferson believed that money should determine it's own course and he allowed all currencies in the world to be traded in Virginia.

Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr..."The crisis of the old order"

These founders have died...when late in the the 1820's and early 1830's
Americans began to corperately invest. It was only in New york that Americans were best able to tract the movement of the dollars and so were attracted by it's speculative preference...and where willing to invest in New york. The rise of New york as machine based was due to the dollar accountability and incentive over foreign currency.

I spend so much time at Aba...before moving to Lagos...in the place of moving to Abuja...I got a chance many years ago to travel to New york and thank I did. I can now very well view from down town here...and I can tell the business attitude of Lagosians and indeed the rest of Nigeria is indeed different from business attitude of people from any of the south east. The reasons are nowhere confined to the tribe but I can say...that in Nigeria...small business are completely no where unless you are from among the southeast Nigeria...where small buisness is like everything.

The Naira and not the dollars or any currency is the most powerful thing there. The rise and fall of the Nigerian Naira is such a big deal that a mere imposition of any thing is 3 months of bad business. Lagos been a capital of the country at a time when people were not allowed to build industries in the east..., had been destined to become a haven for would be investors....What happened is that Lagos attracted more than foreign investment...it attracted foreign currency. These foreigners helped to give the state an acceptable social/market construct...but in the end Naira in Lagos couldn't cope with the speed of development and had to succomb to the powers around her.

It is the spill-on from Lagos that now corrupt almost everything in the country, where people still believe that dollars in thier pocket was a sign of progress...needless to say world market order.

This wasn't always the case given that at somepoint in the Nigeria, Naira was equal to 1 dollar. In those 1980'S the aggregate buying power of
anyone-Nigerian...was equal to the overall buying power of most Nigerians

It's easy to throw your dollars around and offer people European prices when they have to depend on you. It is much easy to spread bad news about a host country like Nigeria...to keep investors out and weaken thier bottom line.
It is easy to trade and pick on the fewest of the nation...that is 1% and throw heavy prices at them and then waylay the other 90% in name of foreign investor. The whole idea of parallel economy existing in Nigeria is most expedient in the vise of too much dollar in a quasi critical region like Nigeria...and the psychology behind this is that Nigerian are easily moving towards at the expense of thier middle class and a rise of 1% unworthy
super rich.... That means in future...the poor will remain poorer and the rich remain richer.

What this will only do is attract criminal elements like those in the now bickering Riverine areas, it will also spur Nigeria as a dump ground for counterfeits....Nigeria now are you probably know is heavy for illegal goods expecially fake Naira. Secondly confidence on the Niara is at all time low, sparing not but more worthless and often counterfeit Naira.

Mr/Mrs C. kenneth I don't doubt you're a book head...we can trade books and other trade gear. You know my company like yours is a real estate and home building.

[Stockbear]

Nigeria: Of Local Banks And Their Phoney World-Class Status

http://allafrica.com/stories/200707090072.html


Technical suspension on Transcorp’s share: It’s irrational exuberance, stupid!

Includes news on imminent crash!

http://odili.net/news/source/2007/jul/9/209.html

[oseitutu]

Originally Posted by Stockbear

Nigeria: Of Local Banks And Their Phoney World-Class Status

http://allafrica.com/stories/200707090072.html


Technical suspension on Transcorp’s share: It’s irrational exuberance, stupid!

Includes news on imminent crash!

http://odili.net/news/source/2007/jul/9/209.html

Originally Posted by oseitutu

According to world authorities, the Nigerian Banking sector is the fastest growing in Africa. That may imply that if the rate of growth slows down or stops or even reverses, there may be capital flight and a cataclysmic collapse. So is it a good thing that our banking sector is so vibrant at the moment. I think other sectors should join in quickly otherwise we will soon be in trouble. I hope others in this forum are also thinking about stock market crashes. It will happen one day....definitely!

Originally Posted by oseitutu

What I think is that Western Style Crash may not happen soon, however, Nigerian Style crash can happen .....anytime but not necessarily soon.
If capital flies away and the good credit we have is destroyed by a few fools, these so called foreign investors will cut their losses and run; our inexperienced medium/small scale investors will panick because they are very inexperienced with rapid downtrends in markets; newcomers will retreat to old trusted businesses like Business Centre and Supply.
It may take three to six months, but at the end of it, the market will be at a value 20 or even 10% of what it previously was.
Work done = crash!

Originally Posted by oseitutu

"...We are highly concerned about the alleged price manipulation currently pervading the market; firms are buying their own shares through brokerage firms to boost their share prices either to keep up with a rival firm, to avoid disappointing investors who bought into their recent public offers, to offer their shares at a designated price for a future public offer and to propel the non-savvy investor to “chase the market.”

People have lost belief in fundamentals and are basically buying any stock in sight. Caution should be the watchword. The shallowness of our market is allowing this to happen. We need to have short selling in Nigeria and market makers to give the market a balance and reduce manipulative activities. We will delve more into this in subsequent editions.

Majority of stocks are still overvalued and will correct themselves without warning at any time."....See proshare blog entry

Is a stock market crash iminent? The reviews from proshare and other brokers are begining to hint it. Members beware.

Originally Posted by oseitutu

5% is no guarantee! If All-share index loses 5% consecutively for 5 days in a row, na free fall be dat O! The only thing is that Nigeria? they can 'BAN' drop in price and nothing will happen. Look at Transcorp!

Originally Posted by oseitutu

Members, please visit wikipedia and read this beautiful essay on stock market crashes.bwalaman is correct. Months to years is bear market, crashes take days. Now looking at our market critically, since only a few people are yet controlling the market, we are at the moment more vulnurable to panic. Having said that, I have strong confidence in NSE. In 10-15 years time we will be leading the SANE countries of Africa.

Originally Posted by oseitutu

Yes there must be recovery after every crash but remember that in crashes, things change and 'THE BIGGER THE KILL, THE HEAVIER THE FALL'. Thus the big fish whom people may rush to go and acquire their stocks may never recover and in fact may eventually be eaten up by ertwhile smaller fish. Say a large corporation may lose so much that it has to break up into small bits and be acquired by other companies. At the recovery phase of a crash usually, new top players emerge. We have to be wary of that. The reason why I started this thread is to make us aware that it is possible. I am not a pessimist, only being realistic.

Originally Posted by oseitutu

ojobello, I know it sounds odd, but think outside the box for a moment. Borrowing at up to 30% as you say for business is "NIGERIAN". Returns are never like that any other place. Thus we have to remember that to have such a high interest loan to play in a market like Nigeria is a huge gamble. One is assuming the returns will beat 30%, what if it does not? What if NSE rate of growth plateaus? What if. There are absolutely no guarantees that the Nigerian Market will continue to gallop. If it is under 10%, then it may be manageable. the risk is huge, really huge but 9ja G & L may go for it. Just realise that it is a huge risk. Mutual funds in the same market play the same game so if the market is down, it is down there too. Another choice would have been bonds, but bonds never give that much interest. Is there any other country that is recording the kind of growth we are seeing with stocks in 9ja? China? Then maybe one can hedge there with an equal investment so that if 9ja fails, that one may rescue your funds.

Dear readers, sorry for the long list of quotes in this entry. We were not wrong here. There is a handwriting on the wall. Funny enough, I must thank Stockbear for including those two links. As we have seen it, so has it occured to thousands of people so, make we dey look. I advice tactical withdrawal! Alan Greenspan said it and I have quoted hime in my signature. For the next couple of days I will include two of his qoutes to get the message across!

But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?
Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., December 5, 1996 [1]
Once stock prices reach the point at which it is hard to value them by logical methodology, stocks will be bought as they were in the late 1920s not for investment but to be unloaded at a still higher price. The ensuing break could be disastrous because panic psychology cannot be summarily altered or reversed by easing money policies.
Greenspan in 1959

[Stockbear]

I came across this response to a similar posting on Nairaland by Easimoni:

This guy is considered a guru on Nairaland. He's take is still in line with Oseitutu's.

@ Omoba3,
Here is my pet peeve again; people using stats in a misleading way. Stocks don't have a yield of 3%. stock yields are dividends + capital gains. As long as a bank (or any other stock) continues to grow it's earnings at 50+% p.a., it'll remain the most attractive investment vehicle in Naija. That a correction is coming is not news. You can see the market slowing down already. The rash of mega offers (each one larger than the last one) may precipitate a slight correction but I don't see anything else that could cause a crash.

http://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-31554.1408.html

[paragon]

Adjudged to be one of the fastest, if not the fastest growing exchange in the world, the Nigerian Stock Exchange has undoubtedly turned people into instant millionaires, billionaires or even trillionaires as the case may be. With stocks that cross across all sub-sectors of the exchange appreciating by 100, 200, 300 and even up to 1000 percent within the last one year, it is no wonder that more and more international investors and fund managers are pumping in huge funds to partake of this rare benefit.

While some say that the market began this historic journey in the post consolidation era of the banks, others are of the opinion that the reforms and changes in the legislature of the country by the former president, Olusegun Obansanjo , is what is responsible for this. Be that as it may, the market has achieved and is still achieving the purpose of whatever triggered this phase.

However, people have been expressing fear over a possible market crash. This is predicated on the belief that most of the stocks are overpriced, due to some sharp practices by companies and brokers. Is this true? Are we heading for a possible crash? How long is this trend going to last? Is this the best time to buy or do I wait on the sidelines to observe things closer? These are some of the pertinent questions that people are looking for answers to.

The market for the first half of 2007 has been very interesting and rewarding. The All Share Index during this period alone has surpassed the index for the full year 2006. Companies, especially in the banking sector are all releasing results with profit growth in excess of 100 percent. Interest rates are falling and infrastructure is being put in place to boost productivity. However, the beginning of the second half of the year did not sustain this drive, as the market has predominantly become bearish.

Except for the banking sub-sector that has managed to sustain itself, other sectors are experiencing price drop on a daily basis. One of the most hit is the insurance sector that has been the toast of many investors for some time. The consolidation exercise just concluded suggests that they are they next spinners in the market. What then is causing the price drop in this sector. Some companies in the manufacturing sectors are also experiencing some hard times in terms of share price drop.

Possible reasons for this according to some people may be as a result of market correction in terms of overpriced stocks, profit taking by investors that have made some reasonable profit, people selling off in order to divest into upcoming juicy public offers etc. For some, they are not half interested in the price drop as they are in amassing loads of some stocks now that the prices are dropping. They believe that they will be at the better receiving end when a new rally begins.

A great investor once said that the best time to buy stocks in some cases is when people are selling off. How true is this? If true, can this hold water in the Nigerian market knowing fully well that it is excessively volatile and liquid. Which companies do I buy in now that will give good returns when the tables turn? Or do I forget the whole stuff and maybe start a business?

These are some of the unanswered questions many are asking and we believe that there will be answers in one way or the other soon enough.

[Taipan]

"... BGL estimates that between 2007 and 2011, the value of securities traded on the NSE will grow by a Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR) of 93% while the NSE All Share Index will grow by a CAGR of 45%"!
--- culled from BGL's PP memorandum (page 33)

Guys, what dyou think about this? Is it possible for the NSE ASI to grow by an average of 45% per annum for the next four years?
If this is really possible, then I think it's time to start taking all the loans possible!
Whatever happened to crashes?

[oseitutu]

Originally Posted by Taipan

"... BGL estimates that between 2007 and 2011, the value of securities traded on the NSE will grow by a Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR) of 93% while the NSE All Share Index will grow by a CAGR of 45%"!
--- culled from BGL's PP memorandum (page 33)

Guys, what dyou think about this? Is it possible for the NSE ASI to grow by an average of 45% per annum for the next four years?
If this is really possible, then I think it's time to start taking all the loans possible!
Whatever happened to crashes?

You have said it all. The future looks too bright to ever spell crash. CARRY GOOOOOOO.
Just make sure you put 10% outside the system every year. When a catastrophy happens, even only the very best best see it. Play the market joo, but save 10% for mop up after that crash. Look at it critically, if the body of a hen grows as big as a goat, but the legs remain small, what will happen? Our fundamentals are not rosy: high poverty rate, lack of transparency and poor poor poor infrastructure. E go happen....and the sooner it happens, the better for us. Look at South Korea. they had theirs many years ago and are now on top of it. Technologically they are second only to Japan.
Tell the BGL analyst that life is not a straigt line graph!

[newton]

I'm extremely certain that the market can grow by over 50% CAGR and that some sectors can do 150% CAGR over the nx 4yrs.
Having said that, based on statutory requirement there's alimit to the amount banks/insuranc coy/pfas can invest in equities hence wt all the funds they have now and the growing need to meet shareholders expectation they are rolling out all forms of term loans at the current rates of 18-21% knowing that in no time the rates wd reduce significantly.
Banking sector has done abt 300% post consolidation, the insurance sector wd follow suit shortly. It is expected that wd available funds investors wd start seeking viable firms to take good stake in so as to position themselves for the future boom (Actis-diamond bank, Rencap-ETI, Shoreline-Costain....

[c kenneths]

Our stock market will still experience some growth next year, but it might not be as high as projected, let’s put a conservative estimate of 30-35% and I will say okay.
A lot of things are still not working properly in the Nigerian market but efforts to curtail them are commendable, the IST tribunal national assembly legislation etc.
The market may crash and I tell you the truth, I will take loans then and buy a trailer load of stocks, I assure you that it will be an opportunity!

Markets that has crashed always come back stronger.

[olusolakemmy]

Originally Posted by c kenneths

Our stock market will still experience some growth next year, but it might not be as high as projected, let’s put a conservative estimate of 30-35% and I will say okay.
A lot of things are still not working properly in the Nigerian market but efforts to curtail them are commendable, the IST tribunal national assembly legislation etc.
The market may crash and I tell you the truth, I will take loans then and buy a trailer load of stocks, I assure you that it will be an opportunity!

Markets that has crashed always come back stronger.

you??????????????????????????
take loan under any circumstances is a strange development!!!!!!!!!!!
anyway, i cant still see why the market should crash, some company are becoming stronger, despite the lawlessness, people are still importing ideas and making thins solid, the goverment is also ready to surpport the market, people are encourage daily to participate in the market, and people actualy get good return from the market.
there might be a long standing profit taking and bearish movement, but not enough to call it market crash, so i agree with you, in the condition of under pricinf that will result from bearish effect, heavy purchase of such stocks is the way out.

[newton]

To be frank. Could it be that the possibilities of a market crash is a bug being pushed in by intending foreign investors who wt there billions want some sort of comfort as to the going concern of the NSE. I think d likes of rencap/actis shd be commended to showing confidence in the NSE and coming in big time while the JPM, GS and co are still playing delay tactics in venturing into the capital market. Just wondering...

[suni]

its true that anything can happen in nigeria, but stock market crash may refuse to accept the Nigerian 'factor', since drop in price is a foreign phenomenon to the nigerian black power. Lets hope that there will be handwriting on the wall to warn potential investors when the time comes.

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by suni

its true that anything can happen in nigeria, but stock market crash may refuse to accept the Nigerian 'factor', since drop in price is a foreign phenomenon to the nigerian black power. Lets hope that there will be handwriting on the wall to warn potential investors when the time comes.

Drop in price is not a "foreign phenomenom"; there have been several years where the NSE ASI index declined.