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[migiets]

Originally Posted by eniyanman

In my view and after an analysis of Nigeria's Presidential elections since 1999, what matters isn't where you win but where you lose. In 1999, Falae lost not because he didn't win his "home-ground" SW but because he lost the North and almost everywhere else. You can extend this to the losers in 2003/7. In 2011, Buhari lost the elections because he polled significantly less where he was weak than GEJ did where he wasn't the popular choice. In other words and quite intuitively, your ability to win an election depends on your ability to attract more votes in your opponent's 'territory' than s/he can gather in yours. And in our peculiar ethno-religious set-up called Nigeria, this happens if you are (or perceived to be) moderate or centrist.

Now to GEJ and 2015. I think his chances of a successful run are remote. Firstly, many of those who voted for him in 2011 are unhappy with is his performance and are unlikely to do so again. Secondly, APC represents a real threat. The merger of regionally-strong parties should strengthen the votes of their candidate outside his/her traditional base. As explained earlier, the relative strength of these "weak" votes swings elections in Nigeria.

Let's look at some hypothetical scenarios in 2015. Young moderate Southerner (Fashola etc) v GEJ. Likelihood: Low. In this case, the elections will be decided by the North, who based on Buhari's influence and apathy towards GEJ will in all probability fall behind Fashola.
GEJ v young moderate Northerner (Ribadu/El-Rufai etc). Likelihood: High. A moderate will appeal to the SW/SS/SE and take votes away from GEJ. With bloc votes against him especially from the SW, an overwhelming victory in the South is by no means certain for GEJ. Again, a GEJ loss seems obvious.

How PDP reacts to an emerging APC is important. As APC gets stronger and more organised, will it continue to back GEJ? Or will some ambitious PDP governors go into 'rebellion'? Unlike the last time where many governors were seeking a 2nd term and hence didn't rock the boat, this time around, there's little incentive to deliver "their" state's votes at the primaries. With this in mind, the possibility of GEJ failing at the 1st hurdle (primaries) cannot be ignored. Unfortunately, for APC, the ideal opponent would be GEJ.

To begin to turn things around, GEJ would have to revamp his govt with reform-minded individuals. Demonstrate competence, courage and ability to confront vested interests. Finally, he has to show he isn't hostage to ethnic sentiments by ridding himself of people like DAM, Clark etc. Will he do it? Not likely. Change can be unpleasant

#TGIF

GEJ v young moderate Northerner (Ribadu/El-Rufai etc). Likelihood: High. A moderate will appeal to the SW/SS/SE and take votes away from GEJ.

The SW played a fast one on Ribadu the last time. Will Ribadu trust them this time around?. As for El-Rufai, he has already burnt his political bridge by his last tweet on Jesus Christ. The Christians in SW/SS/SE will not forgive him for that. If he doubt, he should ask Ikedim Ohakim. The 'muslims should not vote for a christian' talk of Buhari is still hanging on his neck till date.


How PDP reacts to an emerging APC is important. As APC gets stronger and more organised, will it continue to back GEJ? Or will some ambitious PDP governors go into 'rebellion'? Unlike the last time where many governors were seeking a 2nd term and hence didn't rock the boat, this time around, there's little incentive to deliver "their" state's votes at the primaries.

They have no option than to back a PDP candidate. After the second term, what next for them if there is no senate seat. Supporting APC might not get them anything because with four parties in the merger, all available posts and positions would have been shared before the election and so this will leave them in a political wilderness. Decamping will not help them either since they will have no influence. They will only be used to win elections and thereafter they will be discarded.

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by eniyanman

In my view and after an analysis of Nigeria's Presidential elections since 1999, what matters isn't where you win but where you lose. In 1999, Falae lost not because he didn't win his "home-ground" SW but because he lost the North and almost everywhere else. You can extend this to the losers in 2003/7. In 2011, Buhari lost the elections because he polled significantly less where he was weak than GEJ did where he wasn't the popular choice. In other words and quite intuitively, your ability to win an election depends on your ability to attract more votes in your opponent's 'territory' than s/he can gather in yours. And in our peculiar ethno-religious set-up called Nigeria, this happens if you are (or perceived to be) moderate or centrist.

Now to GEJ and 2015. I think his chances of a successful run are remote. Firstly, many of those who voted for him in 2011 are unhappy with is his performance and are unlikely to do so again. Secondly, APC represents a real threat. The merger of regionally-strong parties should strengthen the votes of their candidate outside his/her traditional base. As explained earlier, the relative strength of these "weak" votes swings elections in Nigeria.

Let's look at some hypothetical scenarios in 2015. Young moderate Southerner (Fashola etc) v GEJ. Likelihood: Low. In this case, the elections will be decided by the North, who based on Buhari's influence and apathy towards GEJ will in all probability fall behind Fashola.
GEJ v young moderate Northerner (Ribadu/El-Rufai etc). Likelihood: High. A moderate will appeal to the SW/SS/SE and take votes away from GEJ. With bloc votes against him especially from the SW, an overwhelming victory in the South is by no means certain for GEJ. Again, a GEJ loss seems obvious.

How PDP reacts to an emerging APC is important. As APC gets stronger and more organised, will it continue to back GEJ? Or will some ambitious PDP governors go into 'rebellion'? Unlike the last time where many governors were seeking a 2nd term and hence didn't rock the boat, this time around, there's little incentive to deliver "their" state's votes at the primaries. With this in mind, the possibility of GEJ failing at the 1st hurdle (primaries) cannot be ignored. Unfortunately, for APC, the ideal opponent would be GEJ.

To begin to turn things around, GEJ would have to revamp his govt with reform-minded individuals. Demonstrate competence, courage and ability to confront vested interests. Finally, he has to show he isn't hostage to ethnic sentiments by ridding himself of people like DAM, Clark etc. Will he do it? Not likely. Change can be unpleasant

#TGIF

Don't you think Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as president and Ngozi Okonjo Iweala as vice president would be the best solution to the puzzle called Nigerian? In my view,they are both international figures and capable of facing any critic.

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by migiets

GEJ v young moderate Northerner (Ribadu/El-Rufai etc). Likelihood: High. A moderate will appeal to the SW/SS/SE and take votes away from GEJ.

The SW played a fast one on Ribadu the last time. Will Ribadu trust them this time around?. As for El-Rufai, he has already burnt his political bridge by his last tweet on Jesus Christ. The Christians in SW/SS/SE will not forgive him for that. If he doubt, he should ask Ikedim Ohakim. The 'muslims should not vote for a christian' talk of Buhari is still hanging on his neck till date.


How PDP reacts to an emerging APC is important. As APC gets stronger and more organised, will it continue to back GEJ? Or will some ambitious PDP governors go into 'rebellion'? Unlike the last time where many governors were seeking a 2nd term and hence didn't rock the boat, this time around, there's little incentive to deliver "their" state's votes at the primaries.

They have no option than to back a PDP candidate. After the second term, what next for them if there is no senate seat. Supporting APC might not get them anything because with four parties in the merger, all available posts and positions would have been shared before the election and so this will leave them in a political wilderness. Decamping will not help them either since they will have no influence. They will only be used to win elections and thereafter they will be discarded.

APC(Amoured Personnel Carrier) as the acronmy implies should field SLS/NOI. These duo are armoured. The best APC can do is using bright minds in GEJ's cabinet to challenge him. First,the 2 of them will resign and that would be a blow to GEJ and secondly,they will pair to challenge their boss. This would be the final nail in the coffin.

[bamidele97]

Originally Posted by Oracle

Don't you think Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as president and Ngozi Okonjo Iweala as vice president would be the best solution to the puzzle called Nigerian? In my view,they are both international figures and capable of facing any critic.

To quote sir Oracle
"Don't you think Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as president and Ngozi Okonjo Iweala as vice president would be the best solution to the puzzle called Nigerian? In my view,they are both international figures and capable of facing any critic."
Are those the 2 qualities required of good leaders?

[wanaj0]

Originally Posted by bamidele97

To quote sir Oracle
"Don't you think Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as president and Ngozi Okonjo Iweala as vice president would be the best solution to the puzzle called Nigerian? In my view,they are both international figures and capable of facing any critic."
Are those the 2 qualities required of good leaders?

Winning an election is a different ball game.

Ego and distribution of position will scatter the party. Funny thing is that there is no plan as to what they will do with power. Really a gang up of strange bed fellows. They will must heat up the polity and deliver nothing!

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by bamidele97

Are those the 2 qualities required of good leaders?

I'm not just concentrating on those two qualities. These 2 are masters in their own field and can force a change. We all know how SLS sparred with those in his own government,sparred with legistlators & senate. They can individually effect changes.

We want people that can think on their feet and not those that rehearse questions before they are being asked.

Who do you think should represent APC? Buhari,Tinubu, Ribadu? Like Oga Eni mentioned, Fashola will be a great contender too.

[bamidele97]

Originally Posted by Oracle

I'm not just concentrating on those two qualities. These 2 are masters in their own field and can force a change. We all know how SLS sparred with those in his own government,sparred with legistlators & senate. They can individually effect changes.

We want people that can think on their feet and not those that rehearse questions before they are being asked.

Who do you think should represent APC? Buhari,Tinubu, Ribadu? Like Oga Eni mentioned, Fashola will be a great contender too.

I'm all for change but I feel Mission, Vision, Competency, Strong Team and Goal should come before communication (oratory and barking) skills . All seem to be lacking in the present dispensation anyway.

[Picolena66]

Originally Posted by Oracle

I'm not just concentrating on those two qualities. These 2 are masters in their own field and can force a change. We all know how SLS sparred with those in his own government,sparred with legistlators & senate. They can individually effect changes.

We want people that can think on their feet and not those that rehearse questions before they are being asked.

Who do you think should represent APC? Buhari,Tinubu, Ribadu? Like Oga Eni mentioned, Fashola will be a great contender too.

Originally Posted by bamidele97

I'm all for change but I feel Mission, Vision, Competency, Strong Team and Goal should come before communication (oratory and barking) skills . All seem to be lacking in the present dispensation anyway.

Hmmm................Una all just wasting your Time and Energy

Ribadu for Presido.........

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by bamidele97

I'm all for change but I feel Mission, Vision, Competency, Strong Team and Goal should come before communication (oratory and barking) skills . All seem to be lacking in the present dispensation anyway.

I thought Oando management had a mission and vision. It's easier to state these but doing them becomes a herculean task.

How do you measure competence? Someone who is competent and knows what he knows will always speak it. You will feel competence in people's speech. There would be confidence in posture because what he says must have been thoroughly researched even before saying them. We don't want script readers!

Moreso, I would want all the people that wants to contest under APC to engage themselves in a debate. This should be a criterion for qualifying for primaries. That is when those script readers would be separated from those who can think on their feet. APC should do what PDP didn't/wouldn't do!

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by Picolena66

Hmmm................Una all just wasting your Time and Energy

Ribadu for Presido.........

Ribadu is good in chasing criminals. So we will send him on secondment to FBI!

[Picolena66]

Originally Posted by Oracle

Ribadu is good in chasing criminals. So we will send him on secondment to FBI!

Hmmm.................U don't start your 419 again..............sending the poor chap on another study leave..............hold on a moment and the Nigerian Political scene is not full of them abi

[dr dowell]

Originally Posted by Oracle

I'm not just concentrating on those two qualities. These 2 are masters in their own field and can force a change. We all know how SLS sparred with those in his own government,sparred with legistlators & senate. They can individually effect changes.

We want people that can think on their feet and not those that rehearse questions before they are being asked.

Who do you think should represent APC? Buhari,Tinubu, Ribadu? Like Oga Eni mentioned, Fashola will be a great contender too.

I feel it is a northerner that can give GEJ a good chase and that most likely would be Ribadu. Buhari is still Good but somethings will work against him political. I doubt if they will even succeed to dislodge GEJ from ASO rock. Though GEJ appear weak in some of his action but he is intelligent and underground operator . I have started seeing his political game. I will tell the house in due time

[eniyanman]

Originally Posted by migiets

GEJ v young moderate Northerner (Ribadu/El-Rufai etc). Likelihood: High. A moderate will appeal to the SW/SS/SE and take votes away from GEJ.

The SW played a fast one on Ribadu the last time. Will Ribadu trust them this time around?. As for El-Rufai, he has already burnt his political bridge by his last tweet on Jesus Christ. The Christians in SW/SS/SE will not forgive him for that. If he doubt, he should ask Ikedim Ohakim. The 'muslims should not vote for a christian' talk of Buhari is still hanging on his neck till date.


How PDP reacts to an emerging APC is important. As APC gets stronger and more organised, will it continue to back GEJ? Or will some ambitious PDP governors go into 'rebellion'? Unlike the last time where many governors were seeking a 2nd term and hence didn't rock the boat, this time around, there's little incentive to deliver "their" state's votes at the primaries.

They have no option than to back a PDP candidate. After the second term, what next for them if there is no senate seat. Supporting APC might not get them anything because with four parties in the merger, all available posts and positions would have been shared before the election and so this will leave them in a political wilderness. Decamping will not help them either since they will have no influence. They will only be used to win elections and thereafter they will be discarded.

Even if the SW had voted for Ribadu, he won't have won. It's obvious the SW voted tactically the last time.
El-Rufai didn't tweet about Jesus. Someone else tweeted that "If Jesus criticizes Jonathan's govt, Maku/Abati/Okupe will say he slept with Mary Madgalene" to which El-Rufai responded "LWKMD". Had the post been about Mohammed, it is unlikely El-Rufai would have reacted as he did. Admittedly he demonstrated poor judgement and lack of sensitivity. To his credit, he apologised immediately. Whether he Will he suffer lasting damage from the tweet he didn't tweet is still unknown. Quite unlikely.

Political wilderness is a term for those who have nothing to offer. Those who bring something to the table will always have a role to play.

PS, I found the tweet funny

[eniyanman]

Originally Posted by Oracle

Don't you think Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as president and Ngozi Okonjo Iweala as vice president would be the best solution to the puzzle called Nigerian? In my view,they are both international figures and capable of facing any critic.

Oga Oracle! In my view, SLS and NOI are both competent but politically inexperienced. One thing though, SLS wants to be Emir. He might have had a change of heart. NOI can be Senate President . Actually, why not?

The names I mentioned in my post were to illustrate different scenarios. In cases like this, brandishing names so early on in the process could actually jinx them . APC should focus on building the party, its policies, identity etc. Until then, talking about potential candidates isn't constructive. For now, all we are doing is speculation

[dr dowell]

Originally Posted by eniyanman

Oga Oracle! In my view, SLS and NOI are both competent but politically inexperienced. One thing though, SLS wants to be Emir. He might have had a change of heart. NOI can be Senate President . Actually, why not?

The names I mentioned in my post were to illustrate different scenarios. In cases like this, brandishing names so early on in the process could actually jinx them . APC should focus on building the party, its policies, identity etc. Until then, talking about potential candidates isn't constructive. For now, all we are doing is speculation

I totally agree with u.

[eniyanman]

Originally Posted by wanaj0

Winning an election is a different ball game.

Ego and distribution of position will scatter the party. Funny thing is that there is no plan as to what they will do with power. Really a gang up of strange bed fellows. They will must heat up the polity and deliver nothing!

Which ex-convict, bail jumper or criminal currently serving a jail term is in APC?

Is everyone in APC clean? No. But then again, I remember an experiment my dad taught me as a young boy. He took a container, he created several layers of charcoal, gravel and stones of varying sizes and sand. He afterwards poured muddy water into it and initially muddy water came out at the bottom. We continued this repeatedly until suddenly clear water came out. We had created a water filter! We had mimicked nature

Lesson: Strange bed fellows (or beds of rocks) can do something amazing when directed at something purposeful!

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by dr dowell

I feel it is a northerner that can give GEJ a good chase and that most likely would be Ribadu. Buhari is still Good but somethings will work against him political. I doubt if they will even succeed to dislodge GEJ from ASO rock. Though GEJ appear weak in some of his action but he is intelligent and underground operator . I have started seeing his political game. I will tell the house in due time

due time never reach?