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[nichobabe81]

Please what is happening to Livestock... The price have crashed that i don't know if it will ever come up again. What is your advice, sell and take the losses or still hold on? Your help is needed.

Thanks

[Survival2006]

When did you buy up the shares? Almost always, shares in a thriving, vibrant market like Nigeria's do better in the long run, anything from 2years up. Why not wait and take a look at those "fundamentals" that informed your decision to buy it in the first place.

[DaInvestor]

investors need 2 be careful when the bulls reign in the market cos even the dead shares start 2 gain in price.
most times buying is not a prob but disposing the shares at times can be especially if the stock is not being actively traded on and its a bearish market.
when u check daily market report investors should note the amount of trades on the stock, this helps 2 know the no of activity of dat stock.
most penny stocks if u are not careful are dead stocks and like the previous guy said most times its new management that resurect such stocks.
u can have them 4 a long time and have probs disposing them, so dont buy stocks cos u think the price is low try and do as much research as possible.

[DaInvestor]

though looking at livestock depending on ur entry point and ur aim u have 2 make the decision ur self, at what price did u enter and how much are u trying 2 gain, cos like when i entered cornerstone i was looking 4 100% ROI but the it turned 2 400% but i got greedy though due to bad info from a source i thpought was reliable, then the bears started 2 rule and now all i have is the initial 200% but im reluctant 2 sell cos at a point i got 400%, i know its not wise but its a personal thing and i wouldnt be fulfilled till i get back my 400% so its hard 4 someone 2 advise u on when 2 sell cos u could sell 2day and then realise it going back up and then it will affect ur next investment decision so its good 2 plan b4 entering and just follow ur plan

hope ive not been a bore, but at times people need 2 share personal experiences. hope i ve been of help 2 u

[hispy99]

I used to manage Livestock's account some 6-7 years ago when I was still in Nigeria. Back then, I would not touch the company's stock with a 100 ft pole. Things might have changed now though.

If you have done your research on the company and you feel it's still a solid firm, then by all means hold on to it. If you think it's a dud, then I'll advise you to get rid of it.

[pumping]

Originally Posted by nichobabe81

Please what is happening to Livestock... The price have crashed that i don't know if it will ever come up again. What is your advice, sell and take the losses or still hold on? Your help is needed.

Thanks

I would not worry so much about Livestock Feeds if I were you. I understand the stock has dropped by more than 100% since the highs in June this year and I hope you did not buy at that time.

During a bearish market as we have seen in the last couple of weeks, stocks like Livestock will be hit the hardest. You cannot easily get news on the performance of the company so most people are unable to make informed decisions and offload instead.

In addition the relative price is low so upward or downward movement can be very sharp in the Nigerian market. People don't use percentages so much but instead the net value in Naira terms. So it's easy for investors to drop 50 kobo from a 4 Naira share though this is 12.5% as against dropping 5 Naira from a 40 Naira stock which translates to the same loss. Do you realize that this year alone till June livestock went up by more than 600%? The low start value of 95 Kobo contributed to this in addition to projections and speculation.

My advice. If you need to use the funds elsewhere, sell and move on. If you can wait 6 months I project this stock will still hit 5 Naira and above at some point. It all depends on when you bought. Regarding the ability to sell off, wait for quarter or year end results approach.

NOTE: If there is a general market correction within these 6 months as is making the rounds, expect a stock like Livestocks to be hit hard for the same reasons given above so please weigh your risks. I don't expect a correction within 6 months. My opinion.

I bought at 4 Naira and it is down more than 25% currently but I am holding on to it. This is because my investment strategy is medium to long term and it's a small part of my portfolio so I am not worried.

Pumping.

[nichobabe81]

Thanks Guys,

I hear you all, i think i will wait till close to year end and dispose off. I have learnt my lessons, we need to be very careful with our analysis.

Once again thanks for all your advice, i have really gained alot from this forum

Cheers

[wanaj0]

Originally Posted by pumping

I would not worry so much about Livestock Feeds if I were you. I understand the stock has dropped by more than 100% since the highs in June this year and I hope you did not buy at that time.

During a bearish market as we have seen in the last couple of weeks, stocks like Livestock will be hit the hardest. You cannot easily get news on the performance of the company so most people are unable to make informed decisions and offload instead.

In addition the relative price is low so upward or downward movement can be very sharp in the Nigerian market. People don't use percentages so much but instead the net value in Naira terms. So it's easy for investors to drop 50 kobo from a 4 Naira share though this is 12.5% as against dropping 5 Naira from a 40 Naira stock which translates to the same loss. Do you realize that this year alone till June livestock went up by more than 600%? The low start value of 95 Kobo contributed to this in addition to projections and speculation.

My advice. If you need to use the funds elsewhere, sell and move on. If you can wait 6 months I project this stock will still hit 5 Naira and above at some point. It all depends on when you bought. Regarding the ability to sell off, wait for quarter or year end results approach.

NOTE: If there is a general market correction within these 6 months as is making the rounds, expect a stock like Livestocks to be hit hard for the same reasons given above so please weigh your risks. I don't expect a correction within 6 months. My opinion.

I bought at 4 Naira and it is down more than 25% currently but I am holding on to it. This is because my investment strategy is medium to long term and it's a small part of my portfolio so I am not worried.

Pumping.

The question is why did you but Livestock feeds apart from the hype? Any financial data? What is teh future outlook? What do you know about the company?

In a bull market, dead companies have their stocks appreciating. Wire and Cable is a typical example. Bear market bring some reality.

Though the opportunity was there to buy Livestock feeds at 90k, I did not even move near. The performance is not convincing.

If you did your analysis when you bought the share and nothing has changed since then, you can HOLD.

However, if your purchase was made purely on hype, this is the time to do an analysis and find out whether you actually did the right thing!

[pumping]

Wanajo,

Very good questions. I did not buy during the hype which was really from end of year in March till when the results were released I believe around June. My plan was to buy the stock at the low resistance point but it dropped even further.

My decision at that time was based in part on financial data and other qualitative analysis.

At the time I had the following positive points to consider

1. P/E ratio was 15.43
2. Company had offset a 300 Million Naira loan with rights issue
3. Modernization of 3 functioning factories and revival of a 4th I believe in Kaduna
4. After expansion projected earnings of 70Million Naira, 190 Million Naira and around 300 Million Naira for years 2007, 2008 and 2009 respectively.
5. There is a market to absorb the increased productivity levels. This is just another Nigerian product that preference is for locally produced variety as long as the price difference is not so great when compared to the imported alternative.

This is a high risk stock and is classified as such in my portfolio and the main reason is the dearth of information on the activies of the company. I don't have any negative information since I did the original analysis and until that changes I will hold on to the stock at least till year end in March next year.

Enjoy.

Pumping.

[easimoni]

Pumping,
Livestock's rights issue means they now have 544.7m shares. With your profit forecast of N70M, that's an EPS of 13k. My opinion is that you bought a year too early. Think of it as a long-term investment since the future is very bright.

[pumping]

Thanks for the analysis. I agree.

Enjoy.

Pumping.

[wanaj0]

Originally Posted by pumping

Wanajo,

Very good questions. I did not buy during the hype which was really from end of year in March till when the results were released I believe around June. My plan was to buy the stock at the low resistance point but it dropped even further.

My decision at that time was based in part on financial data and other qualitative analysis.

At the time I had the following positive points to consider

1. P/E ratio was 15.43
2. Company had offset a 300 Million Naira loan with rights issue
3. Modernization of 3 functioning factories and revival of a 4th I believe in Kaduna
4. After expansion projected earnings of 70Million Naira, 190 Million Naira and around 300 Million Naira for years 2007, 2008 and 2009 respectively.
5. There is a market to absorb the increased productivity levels. This is just another Nigerian product that preference is for locally produced variety as long as the price difference is not so great when compared to the imported alternative.

This is a high risk stock and is classified as such in my portfolio and the main reason is the dearth of information on the activies of the company. I don't have any negative information since I did the original analysis and until that changes I will hold on to the stock at least till year end in March next year.

Enjoy.

Pumping.

Impressed by your analysis even thought I beg to differ. Good thing was that you thought it true. Don't think anything has changed since then so I will ask you to hold.

Where I differ is the projections. Did you talk to any one involved in agric to see whether Livesstock feeds is actually in production? Was there a change in managemnt from the one that ran the company under? The projections, how realistic are they?

As you said, it is a risky stock but worth holding.

[olusolakemmy]

if u buy livestock at N4-5, and you have decided to wait for medium to long term, i think it is reasonable to buy more at N2.9 (current price as at 07/09/07) so as to average you price to abt N3, then you have a good deal.

[pumping]

Originally Posted by wanaj0

Impressed by your analysis even thought I beg to differ. Good thing was that you thought it true. Don't think anything has changed since then so I will ask you to hold.

Where I differ is the projections. Did you talk to any one involved in agric to see whether Livesstock feeds is actually in production? Was there a change in managemnt from the one that ran the company under? The projections, how realistic are they?

As you said, it is a risky stock but worth holding.

I know livestock is in production but like you suspected I cannot guarantee these projections. I just don't have the data so I have this high risk flag. Livestock is about 1% of my portfolio so I'm kind of okay to ride the storm.

Meeting these targets depends on how quickly they are able to complete the upgrade of the plants and the revival of the dead one and if the market gap remains.

@olusolakemmy - Thanks for the analysis. I was thinking along this path too. I think I'll buy about half the volume I bought at my original price of 4 Naira to average out at around 3.60 Naira.

[wanaj0]

Originally Posted by pumping

I know livestock is in production but like you suspected I cannot guarantee these projections. I just don't have the data so I have this high risk flag. Livestock is about 1% of my portfolio so I'm kind of okay to ride the storm.

Meeting these targets depends on how quickly they are able to complete the upgrade of the plants and the revival of the dead one and if the market gap remains.

@olusolakemmy - Thanks for the analysis. I was thinking along this path too. I think I'll buy about half the volume I bought at my original price of 4 Naira to average out at around 3.60 Naira.

Pumping, which of the Livestock feeds plan is in operation? I am aware of a plan to sell off the Ibadan plant. Plan was to use the plant to manufacture fish feed (coppens). As at now, to the best of my knowledge, they are not active in the feed market.

While buying more is an option that can reduce your average entry price it can also increase your losses if things don't turn out as expected. I will HOLD until I have better information.

[pumping]

That is news to me. I know they don't produce from Ibadan (I did not even know there is a plant there) but there are 3 mills in other states that were in production. At least they were producing in in Ikeja but you're right things may have changed. No news. Na wa for dis company sef.

I will hold like you suggested but I will still buy a bit more at this new low price. As long as the company does not shut down I'm good to go. This is consistent with my strategy.

Enjoy.

Pumping