NSE - Close to a bottom?

[ManIsland]

Looks like we may be nearing a bottom and the selling pressure should taper off soon in the coming days/weeks.

The chart attached provides an historical pattern that the NSE ASI has exhibited in the last 3 years that we have seen increased activity and strenght on the exchange.

Comments are welcomed!

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by ManIsland

Looks like we may be nearing a bottom and the selling pressure should taper off soon in the coming days/weeks.

The chart attached provides an historical pattern that the NSE ASI has exhibited in the last 3 years that we have seen increased activity and strenght on the exchange.

Comments are welcomed!

Attachment 289

... but i dont look forward to it, not now anyway. Just a personal opinion that I know can get my head cut off. But man, I've been enjoying myself because fundamentally strong companies are doing well in this bearish season, like UBA. They did not do well when the going was good, so why would I want the going to be good again?

But seriously, I think wise investors should start getting ready to move in because lots of companies are beginning to trade at reasonable prices unlike before and I doubt that we will have the kind of ride we had in 2007 because of this clamp on margin trading.

[BLUEMONEY]

Mr Manisland thanks for the chart. maybe the bear session is truly coming to an end.

[Babs_O]

I have a feeling it is reaching a bottom also. Hope this chart is revealing it. I speculate the actual start of the rise will be dictated by 2008 budget release hitting peoples hands. Though not all stocks will follow the rise. The Petroleum sector may rise but will still correct (price will go down) in 3 to 12 months.

[olusolakemmy]

there is no clear indication that the market will recover soon! but it will eventualy.

while some people are waiting for the market to regain so that they can either get out at a reasonale prices or recover their investment some other wish the market remain this way for sometime more so that some coy will further go down, then they will be able to take position.

which camp do u belong to??????????????????

[BLUEMONEY]

Originally Posted by olusolakemmy

there is no clear indication that the market will recover soon! but it will eventualy.

while some people are waiting for the market to regain so that they can either get out at a reasonale prices or recover their investment some other wish the market remain this way for sometime more so that some coy will further go down, then they will be able to take position.

which camp do u belong to??????????????????

To say the truth, i am kind of in both camp. there are some stocks that i have accumulated and they are resisting the bear. so i want them to rally up.
There are other stocks that i am interested in but they cant seem to resist the bear, they keep falling. so i am waiting for them to find support before i make my moves.

[bwalaman]

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[zainabusman]

Originally Posted by Babs_O

I have a feeling it is reaching a bottom also. Hope this chart is revealing it. I speculate the actual start of the rise will be dictated by 2008 budget release hitting peoples hands. Though not all stocks will follow the rise. The Petroleum sector may rise but will still correct (price will go down) in 3 to 12 months.

The Index gained 0.2% today. So who knows maybe we have already reached bottom. I guess we would know by the end of this week.

I guess a lot of us are really concerned about the condition of the market. See the story in Thisday about the condition of the market.

THISDAY ONLINE

The market went up again today May 6th. Is this a sign of recovery?

I ran to IBTC to place order for IBTC ethical. I really need to lock in now before the market recovers fully and one starts regreting.

Unfortunately, cash is at a premiuim. I read somewhere that an indicator of an imminent correction is when almost everybody is fully invested. So there is nobody left to move in and push up the price. I think the market witnessed that in March/April.

[knightofdelta]

Going by the trades today, it seems as if the market is about to do an about turn. Though the volumes traded were not so spectacular but it seems there were lots of more gainers than I have been seeing in the past few days.

We will know for sure where we stand by the end of the week, because this may just be a flash in the pan.

[DaInvestor]

going by yesterday's report and the trend for the past couple of days, i think i can confidently say the bulls are back. entry point is now or the next bearish session. too bad i cant take position cos im waiting for the market to rebound so i can offload.

[Babs_O]

ManIsland please update your chart. Looks like the market has gone below previous bottom projections.

[tonidol]

What is really going on. The market seems to be on a downward trend. I no wan hear say credit cruch dey affect Naija also cos Naija is not a credit driven society.

What is your take folks?

[ManIsland]

Originally Posted by Babs_O

ManIsland please update your chart. Looks like the market has gone below previous bottom projections.

Looks like the market is poised for further slide based on the chart. I will advice anyone looking to be long in this market to exercise some patience till the market shows some strength. In my opinion, and I may be wrong, there is a confidence issue plaquing the mkt at the moment. There have been too many instances of abuse (delayed return monies, partial alloments on certain stocks, indiscriminate use of TS to protect certain firms, insider dealings). The NSE and SEC are lame ducks and are unable to regulate the mkt and provide the necessary framework that should foster confidence. We need new and competent leadership at these regulatory bodies. The CBN's recent directives about the margin facilities, while I understand its objecive, is ill informed. I'll be glad to shed more light on my position later on. But, I've got to go to bed now so I can be useful at work trm.

[billions]

Originally Posted by ManIsland

Looks like the market is poised for further slide based on the chart. I will advice anyone looking to be long in this market to exercise some patience till the market shows some strength. In my opinion, and I may be wrong, there is a confidence issue plaquing the mkt at the moment. There have been too many instances of abuse (delayed return monies, partial alloments on certain stocks, indiscriminate use of TS to protect certain firms, insider dealings). The NSE and SEC are lame ducks and are unable to regulate the mkt and provide the necessary framework that should foster confidence. We need new and competent leadership at these regulatory bodies. The CBN's recent directives about the margin facilities, while I understand its objecive, is ill informed. I'll be glad to shed more light on my position later on. But, I've got to go to bed now so I can be useful at work trm.

One of d major problems with the market seems to be the suspension of margin facilities.Personally, i dont think d CBN shd care how the broking firms get money from banks provided the money is used to trade according to d rules and regulations of the stock exchange.

Enough money is not going into the seconday market to support the total market capitalisation.

...i am getting worried.

[riskreturn]

Originally Posted by ManIsland
Looks like the market is poised for further slide based on the chart. I will advice anyone looking to be long in this market to exercise some patience till the market shows some strength. In my opinion, and I may be wrong, there is a confidence issue plaquing the mkt at the moment. There have been too many instances of abuse (delayed return monies, partial alloments on certain stocks, indiscriminate use of TS to protect certain firms, insider dealings). The NSE and SEC are lame ducks and are unable to regulate the mkt and provide the necessary framework that should foster confidence. We need new and competent leadership at these regulatory bodies. The CBN's recent directives about the margin facilities, while I understand its objecive, is ill informed. I'll be glad to shed more light on my position later on. But, I've got to go to bed now so I can be useful at work trm.

Originally Posted by billions

One of d major problems with the market seems to be the suspension of margin facilities.Personally, i dont think d CBN shd care how the broking firms get money from banks provided the money is used to trade according to d rules and regulations of the stock exchange.

Enough money is not going into the seconday market to support the total market capitalisation.

...i am getting worried.

While I may not be benefiting personally from the downturn, I think it has the advantage of bringing in some sanity to the market, as investors would be more inclined to look at fundamentals before investing, instead of just "splashing" money on the so-called penny stocks - simply because they are penny stocks. It seems like a soft landing for the stock market that was being speculated to be prone to a fatal crash, given the bubble it went through in late 2006 and 2007. Second, it would prevent those new issuers from exploiting subscribers. Offer prices of new POs/IPOs already started at very rich valuations with forward P/E ratios of close to 20 times before the downturn. This was even much worse for PPs, as one recent PP of ENCON or whatever it is called was at a forward PP of almost 3 digits. When Zenith Bank did its IPO in mid-2004, it did so at the trailing P/E ratio of about 7 times. The only PP I have ever subscribed to in my life was that of Fidelity Bank in December 2004 at 1.25 Naira (which I sold May 2007 at a little over 12 Naira, after an initial 1 for 10 bonus) and it was done at a trailing PP of 4.2 times. Nowadays, investors scramble for PPs with FORWARD P/E ratios of above 20 times. There is some need for sanity in all these and such a downturn like the present one would be needed to bring about such sanity - even if it does not pay me financially, it would safeguard the stock market. How I wish this downturn lasts till end-2008 to have somewhat an enduring effect. Those issuers (and there are several of them) that have lined up to "strike" against and "exploit" subscribers at the next available opportunity of an upturn in the market would be compelled to either approach the market at more moderate offer prices or cancel their plan to come to the market.

[zainabusman]

I completely agree with Riskreturn. We need sanity for the long term benefit of all. It is not preety right now for most of us. But if one is invested in only sound companies which were bought at reasonable valuations, then one need not worry.

The kind of valuations we are seeing in recent PP's is scandalous. Personally i have decided to stay away from PP's and PO's and IPO's until things stabilize. The issue of return money is pathetic. PHB, AIICO, Costain are sitting on our money 5 months a