Forex Trading

[nwoyearoh]

Don't know if this thread had been initiated previously........

Will like to do some forex trading but need direction/advice on where/how to obtain good quality trainning and follow ups.

Are the returns worth it, when "doing" it from Nigeria?
Is our "419" reputation a hinderance to being hooked up with reliable trading plaforms?

House, pls I need real help!

[kenebobo]

Originally Posted by nwoyearoh

Don't know if this thread had been initiated previously........

Will like to do some forex trading but need direction/advice on where/how to obtain good quality trainning and follow ups.

Are the returns worth it, when "doing" it from Nigeria?
Is our "419" reputation a hinderance to being hooked up with reliable trading plaforms?

House, pls I need real help!

I have advice for you. Either you use the money u intend to use in forex to trade stocks or you give it to beggers, God would reward you. All those trainings are all lies where they would tell you to use $500 to make $200 daily. I started with $ 1,000 after attending several training and seminar but my account was blown up. Thank God i didnt borrow the money. I had a friend who put upto 1million Naira but today he has an estimate of 50,000 Naira. If you still intend trading I would advice you to go to Forex Trading: Education & Training - Learn FX Currency Trading Online they have all the training tools you can ever need.

Yes our 419 reputation is affecting us, FXsolutions does not allow nigerian traders, the only reputable broker that accepts Nigerians is FXCM but I know they would stop soon. Open a domiciliary account with GTB and you would need a minimum of $300 dollars to start with them(FXCM). I hope this helps. If you have more questions ask.

[justice bende]

I need your help pls.
Some staffs from a forex trading company registered with cac came to my office with an offer promising to pay 100,000 monthly for 500,000 invested over a period of 3 months or more. Some colleagues who started months ago have actually been recieving there monthly pay as promised.

However, I am very skeptical of the offer in view of the fact that I dont know how much a forex trader can make to be able to pay that amount of interest in a month. I would appreciate your advice pls.

The offer is too striking to be overlooked.

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by justice bende

I need your help pls.
Some staffs from a forex trading company registered with cac came to my office with an offer promising to pay 100,000 monthly for 500,000 invested over a period of 3 months or more. Some colleagues who started months ago have actually been recieving there monthly pay as promised.

However, I am very skeptical of the offer in view of the fact that I dont know how much a forex trader can make to be able to pay that amount of interest in a month. I would appreciate your advice pls.

The offer is too striking to be overlooked.

bros, do you think the offer is too good to be true? If you think so, then it is too good to be true. I can categorically tell you that no one can deliver a guaranteed 80% a year on forex trading, not even the so called "super stars" of Wallstreet - Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley. I do not know the type of traders they have at that company, but I will cast my lot with traders at Goldman or HSBC than this company. No one can give you a guaranteed 80% a year. Just think about it, If you can make 80% guaranteed with NO RISK, would you invite the whole world to come and participate?

Just because some of your colleagues have been getting paid does not mean the whole scheme will not come crashing down. In a pyramid scheme (and I am sorry to tell you, but this is what this 100k every 3 months return sounds like to me), the earliest investors usually get their money plus profit back. It is inevstors that come in later in the game that lose everything.

I hope you remember the case of the wonder banks? Please close your eyes and let this "fantastic opportunity" pass you by; you will be glad you did. Just because the company is registered does not mean the owners are not crooked.

[knightofdelta]

A word is enough for the wise...

Making money is a long term adventure. Just because they are registered does not make them totally legal. Are they registered with CBN? Do they have any affiliation with SEC? They have to be registered with SEC as all fund managers (which is what they claim to be) are under the purview of SEC. Remember that almost all the wonder banks were also registered with CAC. Thank God I lost only 5K with them...

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

A word is enough for the wise...

Making money is a long term adventure. Just because they are registered does not make them totally legal. Are they registered with CBN? Do they have any affiliation with SEC? They have to be registered with SEC as all fund managers (which is what they claim to be) are under the purview of SEC. Remember that almost all the wonder banks were also registered with CAC. Thank God I lost only 5K with them...

you suppose don dash me that 5k...

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by hispy99

you suppose don dash me that 5k...

Ole..........

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

Ole..........

ose....if u dash me the N5k at least na friend u dash the money, abi u know anybody for the wonder bank dat chop your money?

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by hispy99

ose....if u dash me the N5k at least na friend u dash the money, abi u know anybody for the wonder bank dat chop your money?

Na true talk... but come o... I dey tink say you no be wonder bank but why you wan sow where you no reap abi, why you wan reap where you no sow. You sure say you no be director for one the wonder banks?

[BLUEMONEY]

Originally Posted by justice bende

I need your help pls.
Some staffs from a forex trading company registered with cac came to my office with an offer promising to pay 100,000 monthly for 500,000 invested over a period of 3 months or more. Some colleagues who started months ago have actually been recieving there monthly pay as promised.

However, I am very skeptical of the offer in view of the fact that I dont know how much a forex trader can make to be able to pay that amount of interest in a month. I would appreciate your advice pls.

The offer is too striking to be overlooked.

@ justice bende,

You have heard from the Masters and they are Right. I would like to tell you about one Forex trading company (I dont even think these guys were registered) that have offices all over south-south Nigeria. They Lost N16 Million (Peoples Money) Trading Forex in one of thier offices in Delta State.

Today all thier offices have been closing up one after the other because they have been making losses. the first set of people that traded with them got thier money with interest but since they have been making losses, they have restructured the payment date and some of the officials from what I was told have either changed thier phone numbers or dont answer the calls of suspected creditors.

So my Advise to you is that you should overlook this offer.

[donchisel]

Originally Posted by nwoyearoh

Don't know if this thread had been initiated previously........

Will like to do some forex trading but need direction/advice on where/how to obtain good quality trainning and follow ups.

Are the returns worth it, when "doing" it from Nigeria?
Is our "419" reputation a hinderance to being hooked up with reliable trading plaforms?

House, pls I need real help!

Me lost $3000 to them all. Please avoid them if you can. Otherwise try and learn like the gurus in this forum. May be you will be lucky to loose less than most of us lost.

[hispy99]

Forex trading: The probability of profitability (I)
By Ose Ebhohimen
Published: Tuesday, 25 Nov 2008

Forex trading is a game of probabilities. Mathematically, the probability that the price of a currency will go up is the same as the probability of it going down. That means it is a 50:50 probability. This knowledge is what is applied in forex spot options or binary options pricing.

In this analysis, we want to look at the matter as though we are a computer, which has no way of knowing the effect of news events and happenings around the world on currency prices. With this in mind, we want to explore the effects of luck, chance, probability and sound money management on long term profitability.

Suppose we have 10,000 traders who are trading purely based on chance. Let us also assume that every month, half of those traders are net negative and these are tossed out of the picture, while the other half are net positive and trade again the following month.

By the fifth month, there would be 313 people who have made money each of those months purely by chance. After 10 months, there would be nine people left who have made money 10 straight months in a row, purely by chance. The analogy goes on until there is no one left.

The maxim of this story, is that it is entirely possible to be deceived into thinking that one has mastered trading when in reality, pure chance is at play. But chance will not stand the test of time, as eventually, a blow up comes along.

Employing a positive expectancy on probabilistic currency events allows us in spite of the vagaries of chance, to profit.

Renowned investing and trading coach, Dr. Van K. Tharp, defined positive expectancy by saying that ”over a large number of trades, you should expect to achieve a positive return for each dollar risked”.

For example, in a long run, an even bet on ”heads” in the flip of a standard coin yields a ”zero” expectancy. This is based on two key facts; the probability of profit is an even 50 per cent, and the payoff for ”heads” is equal to the loss when ”tails” is flipped. The formula for this zero expectancy is: [(50 per cent)(1.00)] + [(50 per cent)(-1.00)] = 0 per cent

Another way to achieve a positive expectancy is for the payoff for a win to exceed the penalty for a loss. If you were paid $1.20 for each ”head” that was flipped but lost only $1.00 when ”tails” came up, your positive expectancy would be figured as 10 cents for each dollar bet:

[(50 per cent)(1.20)] + [(50 per cent)(-1.00)] = 10 per cent

Now if we think of the ”heads” as long trades or buys, and the ”tails” as short trades or sells, we can see that on the long run, we will make money anyway even if we loose 80 per cent of the time provided we make more when we win.

Tharp addressed the issue of winning percentages in the November 1997 issue of ”Technically Speaking,” the newsletter of the Market Technicians Association.

In his article, ”Why It‘s so difficult for Most People to Make Money in the Market,” Tharp states, ”Most of us grew up exposed to an educational system that brainwashes us with the idea that you have to get 94-95 percent correct to be excellent. And if you can‘t get at least 70 per cent correct you‘re a failure. Mistakes are severely punished in the school system by ridicule and poor grades, yet it is only through mistakes that human beings learn.

“In fact, in the everyday world few people are close to perfect and most of us who do well are probably right less than half the time. Indeed, people have made millions on trading systems with reliabilities around 40 per cent.”

This concept is what was applied by the leading Nigerian and indeed African designed forex expert advisor (robot) contestant in this year‘s ongoing Metaquotes expert advisor championship. The robot, named, Ngforexman WiseXpert, at position 47 out of 705 contestants, has made to date 100 per cent gain from October 1 (a period of 54 days). For a total of 60 trades, it has 10 wins (16.67 per cent) and 50 losses (83.33 per cent). For a look at this statistics, visit Reports 17031975 - Automated Trading Championship 2008.

-To be continued.

[mosbe]

Originally Posted by hispy99

Forex trading: The probability of profitability (I)
By Ose Ebhohimen
Published: Tuesday, 25 Nov 2008

Forex trading is a game of probabilities. Mathematically, the probability that the price of a currency will go up is the same as the probability of it going down. That means it is a 50:50 probability. This knowledge is what is applied in forex spot options or binary options pricing.
.

-To be continued.

Forex trade is indeed a trade of probability... Though with Sound Fundamental & Technical Analysis Coupled Good Money Management Principles One can still make $$$. "Diversification Is a Key To Great Investment"

[hispy99]

Will the CBN defend the Naira?
Monday, 01 December 2008 00:23 Ogho Okiti

I thought I should ask where is the budget in this piece but changed my mind. Not because I thought the delay was necessary, but because I would have been so scathing for my liking.

Back to today's topic. There is now a general consensus that growth in African economies will slow next year and perhaps continue in 2010. The background that led to the notion that African economies may be able to ride the storm was based on certain conclusions. First, African economies had changed in significant ways in the last few years. After series of debt forgiveness under the highly indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative earlier in the decade, and subsequent measures of economic reforms, African economies had started looking promising.

Second, the rise in commodity prices since the beginning of the decade has given the continent a new lease of economic life. Thirdly, it was generally thought that the link between the continent and the global financial systems was remote, except in South Africa.

In the domestic arena, the trajectory of the Nigerian economy in the last few years has all the ingredients mentioned above. The exit of the Paris Club debt club provided the platform for balance of payments stability.

Through reserve accumulation, the economy enjoyed unparrelled foreign exchange stability. Whereas the Naira depreciated very significantly in the 1980s and 1990s as growth stagnated, it remained stable and even appreciated against major international currencies since the beginning of the decade. It could even be argued that the Naira was artificially kept undervalued because of exports. However, the continued global economic crisis has continued to raise questions about the many implications of such crisis for the Nigerian economcy.

In Nigeria, the most potent and visible implication of the global crisis has been the rapid fall in oil prices. The other major implication, not quite visible, include the limitations on foreign credit lines, raising foreign interest rate for domestic companies. While the Nigerian economy has been relatively resilient, the consensus is that the full implications have not arrived.

There is a serious danger to continuous fall in oil prices. A continuous fall in oil prices exacerbates growth and deficit risks. A protracted slowdown and continuous risks pose serious exchange and currency risk. There is no doubt that this risk is further down, but the experience of significant depreciation of the Naira and resulting inflation in the 1980s and 1990s suggest we should think of our response now. For the moment, there is no full convertibility of the Naira. The CBN promises us that in the new year, but perhaps reconsidering its position in the light of the present crisis. Also, the CBN juggles between its concern for economic growth and its comittment to the control of inflation. The easing of monetary policy since its emergency meeting in September is a testament to that. More importantly, the fiscal level is exchange rate determined, via oil prices and the dollar value. So, what will happen to exchange rate if the oil price continues to fall?

Since the rapid fall in oil prices, our foreign reserves have remained stable. This is not surprising. Foreign receipts tend to have a quarterly lag, so it is from now that we should begin to see the impact on foreign reserves of fall in oil prices. Interestingly, foreign reserves that stood at $61 billion in October have fallen to $57 billion in November. The Central Bank may have responded to demand in dollar by corresponding supply, keeping the exchange rate stable. There is a reason to worry because the demand for import is relatively inelastic, and the value of our import is not expected to decline much next year. So, how long will the CBN be prepared to defend a strong Naira in the face of declining oil prices?

There is no doubt that there is concern about inflation. The Nigeria monetary dynamics suggest that inflation is easily transmitted through import prices and government expenditure. Earlier in the year, we saw evidences of that through increases in import prices of foodstuff. In the coming year, government expenditure is expected to be low, based on continuous fall in oil prices. But, more importantly, the Naira may come under pressure if oil prices continue to fall and government deficits grows. Already, the government is expected to borrow near a four percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is about N700 billion next year.

In deciding whether to defend the Naira or not, the CBN will be concerned whether the downside risks to oil prices, government revenue, and growth will be protracted and how protracted. It will also be concerned about inflation and the macroeconomic instability that will follow. And of course, it will be concerned about the implications for domestic interest rate.

Considering the risks in 2009, I would have argued for a more conservative oil price benchmark of $30 per barrel and a marked reduction in government expenditure.