National sports lottery vs Baba Ijebu vs leekweed.com

[ohmsworld]

Here's a hypothetical question. If you were told you could only invest in one company from the choice of NSL, Baba Ijebu (Premier Lotto Ltd) and leekweed.com which would you chose?

Careful now. Let's analyze this properly:

NSL pros:
Has a national license
Well financed ( although rapidly depleting resources)
sophisticated infrastructure
50-60% payout

NSL cons:
very low chance of winning
slow payments
struggling to establsih presence outside of Lagos
Top heavy with too many operational expenses
playing in too many markets (epayment, recharge etc)
little grassroot acceptance

Baba Ijebu pros:
Widespread acceptance in southwest
thousands of agents
low overhead
45-55% payout

Baba Ijebu cons:
very low chance of winning
slow payments
unsophisticated infrastructure
poor brand perception by all but the lower income
error prone

leekweed.com pros:
online (thus available nationally)
safe (no going to ojuelegba to collect your winnings)
quick payment
higher chance of winning
sophisticated infrastructure

leekweed.com cons:
low patronage thus low winnings
learning curve
requires analysis to improve chances of winning
95% payout all the time

leekweed.com is actually parimutual prediction so is technically not even gambling/lotto. In a parimutual prediction the winner is the person whose prediction is the most accurate. Note that it doesn't have to be perfectly accurate, just more accurate than everyone else that participates.

As it stands right now, my money will go to baba ijebu simply because he has the traction. leekweed.com is a close second simply because i believe the Nigerian dotcom bubble is coming. Like what happened in the U.S. I believe investors will flock to anything that looks like a solid business with low overhead and huge potential. I'll then make out like a bandit.

*** Full disclosure ***
My friends and I participate in the financial markets on leekweed.com, mostly the stock market prediction and gainers/losers. Only small bets though. More to show up my buddies than anything else. beats playing cards.
***end of dsclosure ***

[ohmsworld]

Seems like I'm not the only one looking at private companies afterall

George Soros, Tony Blair, Citadel capital are all pushing the private equity angle

see the following article for more info
TheCitizen Newspaper

[TeeTee]

hi there,

Just chanced on this post.

Do you want to share a bit on the Leekweed - online prediction market for finance and sports in Nigeria idea?

Thanks

Tee

[ohmsworld]

leekweed is a parimutual system for predicting the Nigerian stock market. In simple terms the winner is the person with the most accurate prediction. Note that this doesn't mean that the person was completely accurate, it simply means that the winner was more accurate than everyone else that made a prediction.

The benefit of a system like this is that the company hosting the system has no interest in the results. The are merely providing a platform for people to compete against each other. This is in contrast to fixed odd bets where the company has an interest in the outcome. Basically your misfortune is their gain.

As with all parimutual system there is a gauranteed payout all the time. The host company makes money by taking a commission of from the entire pot. In the case of leekweed it's 5%. So effectively the winner gets 95% of the pot.

Hope that helps