Technical Analysis Versus Fundermentals Analysis

[jesusislord]

I would like to solicit the views of esteemed forum participants on the above subject. Contributors should address one or more of the following:

1. Do you think that market value of a security is determined solely by forces of demand and supply; and that statistical analysis can be effectively used to determine market equity price trend, speed, and direction?

OR

2. Do you think that good old analysis of company fundermentals- sales, profit, dividends, capacity , competition, etc is the better way to predict the value of stocks?


3. Has anyone undertaken a comparative study in NSE to determine which of the above styles yeild superior returns?

4.where can one get quality historical data with which to do trend analysis of stocks in NSE?

[Isa Tasiu Isyaka]

Not only in the NSE even at the NYSE and the LSE or others around the globe both technical and the fundamental analysis do not give returns to any kind of investor.
but the common sense analysis do give a huge return to investors at every market and situation even when it is at it most worsen position you prosper. The usage of the common sense variety surely work for every body depending on your objectives and purpose. just get the book.


Isa Tasiu Isyaka

[jamiescrown]

Which book did you say we should get bros?

[bwalaman]

Originally Posted by Isa Tasiu Isyaka

Not only in the NSE even at the NYSE and the LSE or others around the globe both technical and the fundamental analysis do not give returns to any kind of investor.
but the common sense analysis do give a huge return to investors at every market and situation even when it is at it most worsen position you prosper. The usage of the common sense variety surely work for every body depending on your objectives and purpose. just get the book.


Isa Tasiu Isyaka

My guy, thats some brave suggestion man! Technical and Fundamental analysis are credible fields for a reason. Common sense is part of life, so dismiss the science at your peril.

If Technical and Fundamental analysis says its bad... its bad, especially under NSE ASI conditions.

[Monwowo]

Please I need suggestions and guidance on how investors pick stocks to TRADE in the NSE. I have been looking at the charts provided on the website of Nigerian securities, and most price actions have not given clear trends. I was looking for stocks with good "breathing" patterns (with obvious peaks and troughs) within a reasonable time frame, but saw only few. I am sure there is a better way that some other investors have tried in this forum. Thanks

[nwoyearoh]

Originally Posted by Isa Tasiu Isyaka

Not only in the NSE even at the NYSE and the LSE or others around the globe both technical and the fundamental analysis do not give returns to any kind of investor.
but the common sense analysis do give a huge return to investors at every market and situation even when it is at it most worsen position you prosper. The usage of the common sense variety surely work for every body depending on your objectives and purpose. just get the book.


Isa Tasiu Isyaka

If you do not have the time (to trade) and you have a long term view it is better to stick to fundamental analysis. It works for Warren Buffett - current world richest man.

If you have the time to trade and like taking (very) high risks, technical analysis maybe the way to go. It worked for Willaim J. O'Neil, a very successful investor.

Both methods and/or combination work WITH proper application of commonsense. Commonsense cannot be applied "in the air"

[madeonline]

A little contribution on the above from me:

Weighing heavily on common sense and environmental scanning; I either use:

1. Technical to shortlist, fundamental to screen and technical to reccomend

or

2. Fundamental to shortlist, technical to screen and fundamental to reccomend

depending on the timing of the reccommendationa nd clienst investment objective vis-a-vis historical performance of the NSE.

Option 1 seems most effective in Q1 and Q2. Option 2 is the only option applicable in Q4.

aLL ABOVE ARE PERSONAL VIEWS/STYLE

[Onwuka Iroabuchi, S]

Originally Posted by nwoyearoh

If you do not have the time (to trade) and you have a long term view it is better to stick to fundamental analysis. It works for Warren Buffett - current world richest man.

If you have the time to trade and like taking (very) high risks, technical analysis maybe the way to go. It worked for Willaim J. O'Neil, a very successful investor.

Both methods and/or combination work WITH proper application of commonsense. Commonsense cannot be applied "in the air"

Nwoyearo...just say short sellers/micro/function/ratio...long haulers/investors/macro/policy. When the market is just about to rebound...especially credit recovery, you must neccessarily be a short seller and you know why. The bull is lit, guy.

We can talk bear when the market is peaked, when it does there is only one way forward and that is backward, sharp investors might be looking to bail not day traders. After this, the ballon is ready to come down and you know why. The bear...

[Onwuka Iroabuchi, S]

Originally Posted by madeonline

A little contribution on the above from me:

Weighing heavily on common sense and environmental scanning; I either use:

1. Technical to shortlist, fundamental to screen and technical to reccomend

or

2. Fundamental to shortlist, technical to screen and fundamental to reccomend

depending on the timing of the reccommendationa nd clienst investment objective vis-a-vis historical performance of the NSE.

Option 1 seems most effective in Q1 and Q2. Option 2 is the only option applicable in Q4.

aLL ABOVE ARE PERSONAL VIEWS/STYLE

That's not true...they are one and the same. The movement of the market determines what.... Yet all fundamental business rejoinders are rain makers for companies, not reps per say. They have have thier valuations and can predict a possible growth in some companies. They depend of IPOS and nurture environment, and they have small cap expertise -not necessarily volume. Perhaps very 'huge handles' on one porfolio and a few of the same brand. Corporate funds and only to some stretch municipal bond

Fundamental scenerio one, Chinese government was gonna spend additional 600 billion in thier economy. They were short on specifics except the mention of local/rural areas. The 'fundamentalist' per say got the sign. The chinese government was to essential spend money in dollars means that americans farm machinary companies are invited to participate in Chinese local economy. They need heavy weight lifters. That means a problem for local farmers and better days for agriculture in Main land China. The question is who will be taking the position over there and what is the distribution network to guarantee returns.

If as a 'fundamentalist' you care about such announcement, there is so much to plan for. One, you could see it as a permanent penetration of the Chinese market and therefore greater potential for outsourcing of machine based product, for cost cutting, price, or you could see it a plan for the future since it is certain that China will manipulate thier currency forever. They will hit the common currency market and allow thier export potential to valuate. The chinese yan under the stated condition will only appreciate - this is if you really understand the very nature of money, that the second law of thermodynamics also apply in money market.

By allowing foreingers to participate in Chinese Agriculture, they stabilise and that 'offends' the export view. This also means that inflation is inevitable, which can mean more money for Chinese American investors and for American Chinese investors. Simply more stcok value. The fundamentalist must act now...and when the game is about set the watchers will enter the dragon. Before now, the profit is already made by way of early penetration.

Warren Buffet combines the two, he first makes his move on very fundamental basis and then seek to inlfuence government to act to his favored stock. You remember that US tried to get China to change its manipulation of currency...but before then Buffet had already bought major handles of chinese currency. Should the Chinese favor the deal, the rate of his investment will simply equal the export ridden appreciation of Yan. He will have his way.

[Onwuka Iroabuchi, S]

Originally Posted by madeonline

A little contribution on the above from me:

Weighing heavily on common sense and environmental scanning; I either use:

1. Technical to shortlist, fundamental to screen and technical to reccomend

or

2. Fundamental to shortlist, technical to screen and fundamental to reccomend

depending on the timing of the reccommendationa nd clienst investment objective vis-a-vis historical performance of the NSE.

Option 1 seems most effective in Q1 and Q2. Option 2 is the only option applicable in Q4.

aLL ABOVE ARE PERSONAL VIEWS/STYLE

That's not true...they are one and the same. The movement of the market determines what.... Yet all fundamental business rejoinders are rain makers for companies, not reps per say. They have have thier valuations and can predict a possible growth in some companies. They depend of IPOS and nurture environment, and they have small cap expertise -not necessarily volume. Perhaps very 'huge handles' on one porfolio and a few of the same brand. Corporate funds and only to some stretch municipal bond

Fundamental scenerio one, Chinese government was gonna spend additional 600 billion in thier economy. They were short on specifics except the mention of local/rural areas. The 'fundamentalist' per say got the sign. The chinese government was to essential spend money in dollars means that americans farm machinary companies are invited to participate in Chinese local economy. They need heavy weight lifters. That means a problem for local farmers and better days for agriculture in Main land China. The question is who will be taking the position over there and what is the distribution network to guarantee returns.

If as a 'fundamentalist' you care about such announcement, there is so much to plan for. One, you could see it as a permanent penetration of the Chinese market and therefore greater potential for outsourcing of machine based product, for cost cutting, price, or you could see it a plan for the future since it is certain that China will manipulate thier currency forever. They will hit the common currency market and allow thier export potential to valuate. The chinese yan under the stated condition will only appreciate - this is if you really understand the very nature of money, that the second law of thermodynamics also apply in money market.

By allowing foreingers to participate in Chinese Agriculture, they stabilise and that 'offends' the export view. This also means that inflation is inevitable for China, which can mean more money for Chinese American investors and for American Chinese investors. Simply more stcok value. The fundamentalist must act now...and when the game is about set the watchers will enter the dragon. Before now, the profit is already made by way of early penetration.

Warren Buffet combines the two, he first makes his move on very fundamental basis and then seek to influence government to act to his favored stock. You remember that US tried to get China to change its manipulation of currency...but before then Buffet had already bought major handles of chinese currency. Should the Chinese favor the deal, the rate of his investment will simply equal the export ridden appreciation of Yan. He will have his way. When we realise whats going on, the man is ready to sell. The selling part is the work of short sellers, who rely on techiniques to predict a next bull.