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  #5781 (permalink)  
Old 17th April 2012, 05:56 PM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by eniyanman View Post
The right person got the job. Kim won because he focused on outcomes not statistics. He devoted himself to people analysis not data analysis. Kim focused on delivering not promising. Kim won on merit. Our planet's poorest inhabitants can look forward with hope that the best person has the job.

This whole process calls to question NOI commitment to economic reform and the Pro-Nigeria Project. To have seriously considered leaving the double-barrel position (which she negotiated for some 9 months ago) without the crystallisation of her promised reforms undermines her authority and ability to deliver structural change. The reforms have "gori odo" (apologies, I don't know any English allegory for this), it needs to be jump-started.

There are vital lessons here for NOI now that she no longer has an alibi to desert this chronically under-performing government (she is now inextricably linked to its performance). To win, focus on outcomes! If only she had taken time out to look beyond the fuel subsidy payment data and had seen the bigger picture of corruption and fraud, she would have focused her energies appropriately and delivered outcomes that the people would have supported. To use the people as a proxy in the fight against corruption was always bound to fail. People are more than numbers/statistics.

Now that they are running out of luck with the President losing in Africa (AU) and the 'Prime Minister' losing with the rest of the World, I sincerely hope that this government will focus on winning where it really matters; at home, in Nigeria. To win hearts and minds; To institute reforms with a human face; To focus on delivering outcomes which better people's lives; To understand that pain doesn't always equate gain; To promise less and deliver more; To be bold against corruption.

The World Bank's mission is simple: To reduce poverty. Now, Mrs Okonjo-Iweala focus your energies on achieving that outcome for 150+ million Nigerians!

#GoneLuckGovt
Like nosa2 said, too much rhetoric, NOI is the finance minister, so she will focus on macro-economics, balancing budgets, coordinating fiscal and monetary policy with the CBN, making the SWF work right etc.

It may escape your notice, but the partial removal of subsidy, has led to a direct increase in FX reserves (CBN), and an appreciation in the currency, as well as a fall in inflation.

That to me is the job of the finance minister, all this human face stuff u talk about, is irrelevant IMO.

Th Govt by the way to me is only underperforming in the area of power sector reforms, and that is because the timeline has been shifted to october. If the BPE does sell of those assets by october as scheduled, then its game on.

Meanwhile, huge reforms and progress is ongoing in Agriculture, works (major roads are being repaired), port reform, Trade and investment, cement sector, FX reserves build up (macro economic stability), FDI inflows in retail (and other non oil sectors), and a generally warm and investor friendly climate.

I know about all the talk of the common man, but to me Nigerians need to understand that no country got it right without years of painstaking sacrifice and patience with an eye to moving forward no matter what.

Ask the chinese, the koreans, the brazilians, indonesians, etc.. .u save, tighten your belts, live within your means, translate your saving to investment, through the development of your local capital markets and domestic bond markets, and then prosperity starts to unfold.

There are no shortcuts, even in security, ask the colombians, the algerians, the indians. . even after 20yrs plus they struggle with terrorists and rebel groups, but they know its a long struggle, so they never despair.

So dont expect miracles from NOI, in less than 1 yr. . cheers
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  #5782 (permalink)  
Old 17th April 2012, 09:34 PM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by paddylo View Post
Like nosa2 said, too much rhetoric, NOI is the finance minister, so she will focus on macro-economics, balancing budgets, coordinating fiscal and monetary policy with the CBN, making the SWF work right etc.

It may escape your notice, but the partial removal of subsidy, has led to a direct increase in FX reserves (CBN), and an appreciation in the currency, as well as a fall in inflation.
Let's cut to the chase.
The increase in reserves is due to
1. partial devaluation of the naira in Q4 2011
2. partial (temporary hopefully permanent) removal of fraud/corruption. A by-product of the partial removal of subsidy. However, the problem wasn't the subsidy per se, it was the corruption in the subsidy regime. There is no guarantee as yet that this fraud wouldn't return when the probes ends unless it is tackled head-on. Fight corruption not subsidy. Ultimately, what matters most is whether the savings go to address structural issues. On that, the jury's out!
3. Reduction in disposable incomes.

I would have thought it was better to attain reserve accretion by devaluing the naira. This supports local industry and production and spurs inward investment.

The fall in inflation (though too early to determine if this will be sustained) could be attributed to a fall in demand caused by a drop in disposable income (another effect of subsidy removal). A drop in disposable income will hurt local producers as demand reduces. This is further exacerbated by a short-term appreciation of the naira which makes it imports cheaper and discourages investment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by paddylo View Post
That to me is the job of the finance minister, all this human face stuff u talk about, is irrelevant IMO.
Reforms involve some pain. Pain shouldn't be needless. Not all pain is good. It should have a human face, it should be measured, probably sequenced and is most successful when it has the people's buy-in.

Quote:
Originally Posted by paddylo View Post
Th Govt by the way to me is only underperforming in the area of power sector reforms, and that is because the timeline has been shifted to october. If the BPE does sell of those assets by october as scheduled, then its game on.
Only power, abi? I laugh....

Anyway, Govt should get out of the power sector (hold no more than 10% equity). Sell all the assets (i.e. no management contracts whatsoever) in an open, transparent competitive bidding process. Impose universal service obligations on all operators (in the areas of operation). Ensure that public monopolies aren't replaced by private ones. Establish proper and competent regulator. Work to realistic timescales etc


Quote:
Originally Posted by paddylo View Post
Meanwhile, huge reforms and progress is ongoing in Agriculture, works (major roads are being repaired), port reform, Trade and investment, cement sector, FX reserves build up (macro economic stability), FDI inflows in retail (and other non oil sectors), and a generally warm and investor friendly climate.
Can you be more specific? If repairing roads is reform. I fear for then. What new major highway is being built? WHat new railway tracks are being laid? How many roads are being expanded from 2-lanes to 3-/4- lanes etc.

The port reform is apparently in disarray. FDI inflows into the retail sector isn't a result of any reform. Trade and Investment??? All we get from Aganga is a series of whitepapers and blueprints. May be he needs a red card!

The issue which bothers me is when did others (who made the jump from developing to advancing nations) invest massively in infrastucture? In the middle of a (commodity, manufacturing etc) boom or at, perhaps, the tail end? I guess it's never too late to start.

Quote:
Originally Posted by paddylo View Post
I know about all the talk of the common man, but to me Nigerians need to understand that no country got it right without years of painstaking sacrifice and patience with an eye to moving forward no matter what.

Ask the chinese, the koreans, the brazilians, indonesians, etc.. .u save, tighten your belts, live within your means, translate your saving to investment, through the development of your local capital markets and domestic bond markets, and then prosperity starts to unfold.

There are no shortcuts, even in security, ask the colombians, the algerians, the indians. . even after 20yrs plus they struggle with terrorists and rebel groups, but they know its a long struggle, so they never despair.

So dont expect miracles from NOI, in less than 1 yr. . cheers
Of course there are no shortcuts. It takes time. However, we need to see greenshoots not just bag loads of promises and more promises.

The problem with Nigeria is corruption. Addressing it alone will cause a step change in living standards (even without economic reforms).

We don't expect miracles from NOI, just an explanation. "Why did she want to jump ship so soon?" "How far gone are the reforms?" etc. Actually. may be we should expect miracles, after-all, God chose them!
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  #5783 (permalink)  
Old 17th April 2012, 10:54 PM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by eniyanman View Post
Let's cut to the chase.
The increase in reserves is due to
1. partial devaluation of the naira in Q4 2011
2. partial (temporary hopefully permanent) removal of fraud/corruption. A by-product of the partial removal of subsidy. However, the problem wasn't the subsidy per se, it was the corruption in the subsidy regime. There is no guarantee as yet that this fraud wouldn't return when the probes ends unless it is tackled head-on. Fight corruption not subsidy. Ultimately, what matters most is whether the savings go to address structural issues. On that, the jury's out!
3. Reduction in disposable incomes.

I would have thought it was better to attain reserve accretion by devaluing the naira. This supports local industry and production and spurs inward investment.
The partial devaluation of the naira, would not have been sustainable (that is the CBN could not have maintained the naira at the 150 - 160 band), if not for the subsidy removal, which gave them more ammo in terms of reduced pressure on the WDAS.

Dont forget that at a time after the devaluation, but before the removal of subsidy the naira was approaching 163/ 164, with most people calling for 170 as next stop.

So subsidy removal is the maor reason for reserve accretion and naira stability.

Disposable incomes have reduced but, perhaps its only 10 - 20 percent of the reason for the reserve buid up, most of it like i said earlier is the increased confidence brought about by subsidy removal

Quote:
The fall in inflation (though too early to determine if this will be sustained) could be attributed to a fall in demand caused by a drop in disposable income (another effect of subsidy removal). A drop in disposable income will hurt local producers as demand reduces. This is further exacerbated by a short-term appreciation of the naira which makes it imports cheaper and discourages investment.
The fall in inflation is mostly attributed (60+) to the appreciation of the naira ytd. Naira appreciation may only hurt manufacturers if it gains too fast, too soon over a prolonged period of time. .dont forget the naira is still within the CBN band.


Quote:
Reforms involve some pain. Pain shouldn't be needless. Not all pain is good. It should have a human face, it should be measured, probably sequenced and is most successful when it has the people's buy-in.
Nigerians to me are not a serious lot, we love to pretend that we are the ish, but sadly we are not, even an okada rider with no skills to survive in the modern era, will rather throw a party, than save and invest in himself or his kids.

whats my point?, we need the discipline of the japanese, the capitalist mindset of the Americans, the technical skills of the Germans and the never say die Naija spirit to make it out there. . right now we only have the Naija spirit and nothing else.

My man we cant go far with that. So tough reforms , preferably with a non human face are needed.

Quote:
Only power, abi? I laugh....

Anyway, Govt should get out of the power sector (hold no more than 10% equity). Sell all the assets (i.e. no management contracts whatsoever) in an open, transparent competitive bidding process. Impose universal service obligations on all operators (in the areas of operation). Ensure that public monopolies aren't replaced by private ones. Establish proper and competent regulator. Work to realistic timescales etc
All what u outline above is the major plank of The power sector reform agenda of the Government. What you should be asking is why has this not been done since 1990,2000,2007???.. . I could also ask the same of the SWF or the recent Agric revolution taking place,driven primarilly by the new agric minister Akinwunmi Adesina


Quote:
Can you be more specific? If repairing roads is reform. I fear for then. What new major highway is being built? WHat new railway tracks are being laid? How many roads are being expanded from 2-lanes to 3-/4- lanes etc.

The port reform is apparently in disarray. FDI inflows into the retail sector isn't a result of any reform. Trade and Investment??? All we get from Aganga is a series of whitepapers and blueprints. May be he needs a red card!

The issue which bothers me is when did others (who made the jump from developing to advancing nations) invest massively in infrastucture? In the middle of a (commodity, manufacturing etc) boom or at, perhaps, the tail end? I guess it's never too late to start.
The reform is in the mindset to use PPPs to bridge the gaps in infrastructure funding. Most major highways like benin ore have been repaired, even in Lagos, the perpetually bad Apapa Oshodi is being worked on by berger.
but we have to admit that the Govt cannot fund major infrastructure on its own. the works ministrys budget for 2012 is a laughable N 125 billion or thereabouts, thats peanuts.

Port reforms are progressing, cargo clearing times has dropped from 1 month to about 2 weeks.

Trade and investment is doing exactly what he needs to do, i believe your criticism is in bad faith!!, All over the world thats what the trade missions do, canvas for trade from countries and companies and sell their country. what else would you have him do? dance a jig as well?

Quote:
Of course there are no shortcuts. It takes time. However, we need to see greenshoots not just bag loads of promises and more promises.

The problem with Nigeria is corruption. Addressing it alone will cause a step change in living standards (even without economic reforms).

We don't expect miracles from NOI, just an explanation. "Why did she want to jump ship so soon?" "How far gone are the reforms?" etc. Actually. may be we should expect miracles, after-all, God chose them!
You cant get greenshoots in less than one year, afterall it took obama almost into his 3rd yr b4 opinion polls began to turn in his favor on his handling of the economy, even now its still rather low.

I happen to believe that corruption is the least of Nigerias problem, because ppl like you who mouth of this thesis, believe that Govt is the solution to all of Nigeria's problems.

pls Stop the NOI bashin ok, jeez, the woman is one of the best thing to happen to your country in recent times. and the ppl chose them, but even god himself would probably have chosen them over the other laughable lot!!, esp the 70yr old ex coup plotter from the eighties, who probably still believes in bankrupt ideas like exchange controls and essential commodities.
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  #5784 (permalink)  
Old 17th April 2012, 10:58 PM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by paddylo View Post
The partial devaluation of the naira, would not have been sustainable (that is the CBN could not have maintained the naira at the 150 - 160 band), if not for the subsidy removal, which gave them more ammo in terms of reduced pressure on the WDAS.

Dont forget that at a time after the devaluation, but before the removal of subsidy the naira was approaching 163/ 164, with most people calling for 170 as next stop.

So subsidy removal is the maor reason for reserve accretion and naira stability.

Disposable incomes have reduced but, perhaps its only 10 - 20 percent of the reason for the reserve buid up, most of it like i said earlier is the increased confidence brought about by subsidy removal



The fall in inflation is mostly attributed (60+) to the appreciation of the naira ytd. Naira appreciation may only hurt manufacturers if it gains too fast, too soon over a prolonged period of time. .dont forget the naira is still within the CBN band.




Nigerians to me are not a serious lot, we love to pretend that we are the ish, but sadly we are not, even an okada rider with no skills to survive in the modern era, will rather throw a party, than save and invest in himself or his kids.

whats my point?, we need the discipline of the japanese, the capitalist mindset of the Americans, the technical skills of the Germans and the never say die Naija spirit to make it out there. . right now we only have the Naija spirit and nothing else.

My man we cant go far with that. So tough reforms , preferably with a non human face are needed.



All what u outline above is the major plank of The power sector reform agenda of the Government. What you should be asking is why has this not been done since 1990,2000,2007???.. . I could also ask the same of the SWF or the recent Agric revolution taking place,driven primarilly by the new agric minister Akinwunmi Adesina




The reform is in the mindset to use PPPs to bridge the gaps in infrastructure funding. Most major highways like benin ore have been repaired, even in Lagos, the perpetually bad Apapa Oshodi is being worked on by berger.
but we have to admit that the Govt cannot fund major infrastructure on its own. the works ministrys budget for 2012 is a laughable N 125 billion or thereabouts, thats peanuts.

Port reforms are progressing, cargo clearing times has dropped from 1 month to about 2 weeks.

Trade and investment is doing exactly what he needs to do, i believe your criticism is in bad faith!!, All over the world thats what the trade missions do, canvas for trade from countries and companies and sell their country. what else would you have him do? dance a jig as well?



You cant get greenshoots in less than one year, afterall it took obama almost into his 3rd yr b4 opinion polls began to turn in his favor on his handling of the economy, even now its still rather low.

I happen to believe that corruption is the least of Nigerias problem, because ppl like you who mouth of this thesis, believe that Govt is the solution to all of Nigeria's problems.

Stop the NOI bashinb ok, jeez, the woman is one of the best thing to happen to your country in recent times. and the ppl chose them, but even god himself would probably have chosen them over the other laughable lot!!, esp the 70yr old ex coup plotter from the eighties, who probably still believes in bankrupt ideas like exchange controls and essential commodities.
No comments!
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  #5785 (permalink)  
Old 17th April 2012, 11:09 PM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by paddylo View Post
The partial devaluation of the naira, would not have been sustainable (that is the CBN could not have maintained the naira at the 150 - 160 band), if not for the subsidy removal, which gave them more ammo in terms of reduced pressure on the WDAS.

Dont forget that at a time after the devaluation, but before the removal of subsidy the naira was approaching 163/ 164, with most people calling for 170 as next stop.

So subsidy removal is the maor reason for reserve accretion and naira stability.

Disposable incomes have reduced but, perhaps its only 10 - 20 percent of the reason for the reserve buid up, most of it like i said earlier is the increased confidence brought about by subsidy removal



The fall in inflation is mostly attributed (60+) to the appreciation of the naira ytd. Naira appreciation may only hurt manufacturers if it gains too fast, too soon over a prolonged period of time. .dont forget the naira is still within the CBN band.




Nigerians to me are not a serious lot, we love to pretend that we are the ish, but sadly we are not, even an okada rider with no skills to survive in the modern era, will rather throw a party, than save and invest in himself or his kids.

whats my point?, we need the discipline of the japanese, the capitalist mindset of the Americans, the technical skills of the Germans and the never say die Naija spirit to make it out there. . right now we only have the Naija spirit and nothing else.

My man we cant go far with that. So tough reforms , preferably with a non human face are needed.



All what u outline above is the major plank of The power sector reform agenda of the Government. What you should be asking is why has this not been done since 1990,2000,2007???.. . I could also ask the same of the SWF or the recent Agric revolution taking place,driven primarilly by the new agric minister Akinwunmi Adesina




The reform is in the mindset to use PPPs to bridge the gaps in infrastructure funding. Most major highways like benin ore have been repaired, even in Lagos, the perpetually bad Apapa Oshodi is being worked on by berger.
but we have to admit that the Govt cannot fund major infrastructure on its own. the works ministrys budget for 2012 is a laughable N 125 billion or thereabouts, thats peanuts.

Port reforms are progressing, cargo clearing times has dropped from 1 month to about 2 weeks.

Trade and investment is doing exactly what he needs to do, i believe your criticism is in bad faith!!, All over the world thats what the trade missions do, canvas for trade from countries and companies and sell their country. what else would you have him do? dance a jig as well?



You cant get greenshoots in less than one year, afterall it took obama almost into his 3rd yr b4 opinion polls began to turn in his favor on his handling of the economy, even now its still rather low.

I happen to believe that corruption is the least of Nigerias problem, because ppl like you who mouth of this thesis, believe that Govt is the solution to all of Nigeria's problems.

pls Stop the NOI bashin ok, jeez, the woman is one of the best thing to happen to your country in recent times. and the ppl chose them, but even god himself would probably have chosen them over the other laughable lot!!, esp the 70yr old ex coup plotter from the eighties, who probably still believes in bankrupt ideas like exchange controls and essential commodities.
I need to see you so I can buy you a bottle of castle milk stout.
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  #5786 (permalink)  
Old 17th April 2012, 11:11 PM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by eniyanman View Post
No comments!
I respect your opinions a lot especially when it comes to economic and financial matters. Since I've been on this forum you've successfully predicted every bear market we've had but it seems you find it difficult to be objective when it comes to political analysis.
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  #5787 (permalink)  
Old 17th April 2012, 11:31 PM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by nosa2 View Post
I need to see you so I can buy you a bottle of castle milk stout.
A big Stout will be just fine, or make it a Heineken.. lol
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  #5788 (permalink)  
Old 18th April 2012, 12:18 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by nosa2 View Post
I need to see you so I can buy you a bottle of castle milk stout.
The isi ewu is on me.

Paddylo spoke my mind 100%. He has been able to summarize all my rantings over the past three months in just two posts. Dang!
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  #5789 (permalink)  
Old 18th April 2012, 02:49 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by paddylo View Post

.............................................





Nigerians to me are not a serious lot, we love to pretend that we are the ish, but sadly we are not, even an okada rider with no skills to survive in the modern era, will rather throw a party, than save and invest in himself or his kids.

whats my point?, we need the discipline of the japanese, the capitalist mindset of the Americans, the technical skills of the Germans and the never say die Naija spirit to make it out there. . right now we only have the Naija spirit and nothing else.

............................
I gbadun this section!! We need to spread those words on the streets!
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Old 18th April 2012, 05:07 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

NNPC reels under N558b debt
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  #5791 (permalink)  
Old 18th April 2012, 05:07 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

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Originally Posted by nosa2 View Post
I respect your opinions a lot especially when it comes to economic and financial matters. Since I've been on this forum you've successfully predicted every bear market we've had but it seems you find it difficult to be objective when it comes to political analysis.
You spoke my mind. I believe Oga Eniyanman is still bitter about the subsidy issue and the occupy movement. He should please move on and let us give this govt. a chance and see what comes out by 2015. The present govt. is doing a lot despite the distractions by BH. Many people have commended the Benin-Ore road. could not belive when my wife left lagos by 12noon on a friday and got home in the northern part of Edo state by 6pm. Prior to this, she would have either slept in Benin or reach home by 10pm.

The partial removal of fuel subsidy has actually make people to be displined and have stopped frivolous spending. Traffic on lagos roads have reduced. I hadly see all these fuel trunks and trailers anymore. It confirm the theory that the fuel was mainly being smuggled out. In addition, the introduction of the several railway shuttles between Iddo and Sango Ota has also help.

Last edited by migiets; 18th April 2012 at 05:16 AM.
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Old 18th April 2012, 05:19 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

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Originally Posted by paddylo View Post

whats my point?, we need the discipline of the japanese, the capitalist mindset of the Americans, the technical skills of the Germans and the never say die Naija spirit to make it out there. . right now we only have the Naija spirit and nothing else.
What about the Indians?.
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Old 18th April 2012, 05:40 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

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Originally Posted by nosa2 View Post
I respect your opinions a lot especially when it comes to economic and financial matters. Since I've been on this forum you've successfully predicted every bear market we've had but it seems you find it difficult to be objective when it comes to political analysis.
Don't know what to make of this. What political analysis? We have a government which promises a lot and hardly delivers. A government of committees. Folks are seeing beyond the cabinet of 'talents' and rightly asking questions. By their fruit (deliverables) we shall know them.

I didn't want to continue my discussion with paddy. It was becoming unproductive. He was for example confusing investment in the debt market as confidence in the economy. He sees nothing wrong in the architect of the reform agenda trying to do a runner. He fails to see that forex pressure will return if the corruption in the subsidy payment system returns etc.

I have no political agenda but to insist on good governance; That policy be based on people analysis not data analysis alone; That a team of talented footballers all playing out of positions hardly succeeds.; it is the responsibility of govt to convince and carry the people along and not to insist on the people's trust apriori.

Last edited by eniyanman; 18th April 2012 at 05:58 AM.
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Old 18th April 2012, 05:58 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

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Originally Posted by migiets View Post
You spoke my mind. I believe Oga Eniyanman is still bitter about the subsidy issue and the occupy movement. He should please move on and let us give this govt. a chance and see what comes out by 2015. The present govt. is doing a lot despite the distractions by BH. Many people have commended the Benin-Ore road. could not belive when my wife left lagos by 12noon on a friday and got home in the northern part of Edo state by 6pm. Prior to this, she would have either slept in Benin or reach home by 10pm.

The partial removal of fuel subsidy has actually make people to be displined and have stopped frivolous spending. Traffic on lagos roads have reduced. I hadly see all these fuel trunks and trailers anymore. It confirm the theory that the fuel was mainly being smuggled out. In addition, the introduction of the several railway shuttles between Iddo and Sango Ota has also help.
The subsidy issue was badly handled. I've moved on. Only recently did I commence criticism of the govt because it's lost its way. It's plagued with indecision and weak leadership.

Smuggling to neighbouring countries is not the reason for the ballooning subsidy payment. What is the size of their economies? Excluding Cameroon, probably not up to Lagos'. The problem was the corruption. It could have been excised without removing the subsidy (as you know, I am not wedded to keeping the subsidy indefinitely). In my view, corruption is only hibernating. Let's terminate it.

By failing to gain the people's trust the last time, this govt is finding it difficult to implement needed but painful reforms.

On roads, the problem is the maintenance culture. Let's wait a few years before passing judgement.

I hope this govt succeeds, actually I want them to, however, its current trajectory doesn't fill me with optimism.
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Old 18th April 2012, 06:00 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

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Originally Posted by paddylo View Post
The partial devaluation of the naira, would not have been sustainable (that is the CBN could not have maintained the naira at the 150 - 160 band), if not for the subsidy removal, which gave them more ammo in terms of reduced pressure on the WDAS.

Dont forget that at a time after the devaluation, but before the removal of subsidy the naira was approaching 163/ 164, with most people calling for 170 as next stop.

So subsidy removal is the maor reason for reserve accretion and naira stability.

Disposable incomes have reduced but, perhaps its only 10 - 20 percent of the reason for the reserve buid up, most of it like i said earlier is the increased confidence brought about by subsidy removal



The fall in inflation is mostly attributed (60+) to the appreciation of the naira ytd. Naira appreciation may only hurt manufacturers if it gains too fast, too soon over a prolonged period of time. .dont forget the naira is still within the CBN band.




Nigerians to me are not a serious lot, we love to pretend that we are the ish, but sadly we are not, even an okada rider with no skills to survive in the modern era, will rather throw a party, than save and invest in himself or his kids.

whats my point?, we need the discipline of the japanese, the capitalist mindset of the Americans, the technical skills of the Germans and the never say die Naija spirit to make it out there. . right now we only have the Naija spirit and nothing else.

My man we cant go far with that. So tough reforms , preferably with a non human face are needed.



All what u outline above is the major plank of The power sector reform agenda of the Government. What you should be asking is why has this not been done since 1990,2000,2007???.. . I could also ask the same of the SWF or the recent Agric revolution taking place,driven primarilly by the new agric minister Akinwunmi Adesina




The reform is in the mindset to use PPPs to bridge the gaps in infrastructure funding. Most major highways like benin ore have been repaired, even in Lagos, the perpetually bad Apapa Oshodi is being worked on by berger.
but we have to admit that the Govt cannot fund major infrastructure on its own. the works ministrys budget for 2012 is a laughable N 125 billion or thereabouts, thats peanuts.

Port reforms are progressing, cargo clearing times has dropped from 1 month to about 2 weeks.

Trade and investment is doing exactly what he needs to do, i believe your criticism is in bad faith!!, All over the world thats what the trade missions do, canvas for trade from countries and companies and sell their country. what else would you have him do? dance a jig as well?



You cant get greenshoots in less than one year, afterall it took obama almost into his 3rd yr b4 opinion polls began to turn in his favor on his handling of the economy, even now its still rather low.

I happen to believe that corruption is the least of Nigerias problem, because ppl like you who mouth of this thesis, believe that Govt is the solution to all of Nigeria's problems.

pls Stop the NOI bashin ok, jeez, the woman is one of the best thing to happen to your country in recent times. and the ppl chose them, but even god himself would probably have chosen them over the other laughable lot!!, esp the 70yr old ex coup plotter from the eighties, who probably still believes in bankrupt ideas like exchange controls and essential commodities.
Thumbs up sir paddylo; a keg of palmwine plus bushmeat from me,we can actually do it dis wkend.
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Old 18th April 2012, 06:45 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

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Originally Posted by eniyanman View Post
The subsidy issue was badly handled. I've moved on. Only recently did I commence criticism of the govt because it's lost its way. It's plagued with indecision and weak leadership.

Smuggling to neighbouring countries is not the reason for the ballooning subsidy payment. What is the size of their economies? Excluding Cameroon, probably not up to Lagos'. The problem was the corruption. It could have been excised without removing the subsidy (as you know, I am not wedded to keeping the subsidy indefinitely). In my view, corruption is only hibernating. Let's terminate it.

By failing to gain the people's trust the last time, this govt is finding it difficult to implement needed but painful reforms.

On roads, the problem is the maintenance culture. Let's wait a few years before passing judgement.

I hope this govt succeeds, actually I want them to, however, its current trajectory doesn't fill me with optimism.
You keep talking about corruption as if somebody wil just wake up oneday and 'kill' it. The best thing we can do is to reduce d participation of goverment in some activities,and thats exactly what Gej administration is doing. If u expect them to 'kill' it by doing d popular thing and what most pple want(which has not worked and wil not work) by 'catching' 'thieves' and charghing dem 2 court then u must b ready 2 wait til eternity.(even d old general would find dat approach unworkable in a democratic settin like ours). As 4 d power reform,dont forget dat d setback was actualy caused by late Yaradua administration when he orderded dat d entire process b stopped. Prof. Bath is doing well but d biggest obstacle is LABOUR which he has 2 handle wit care. I sincerely think we are havin d best of hands maning strategic ministries at d federal level,it is our duty 2 support them so d jobs could b easier 4 dem.
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  #5797 (permalink)  
Old 18th April 2012, 08:38 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

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Originally Posted by laso View Post
You keep talking about corruption as if somebody wil just wake up oneday and 'kill' it. The best thing we can do is to reduce d participation of goverment in some activities,and thats exactly what Gej administration is doing. If u expect them to 'kill' it by doing d popular thing and what most pple want(which has not worked and wil not work) by 'catching' 'thieves' and charghing dem 2 court then u must b ready 2 wait til eternity.(even d old general would find dat approach unworkable in a democratic settin like ours). As 4 d power reform,dont forget dat d setback was actualy caused by late Yaradua administration when he orderded dat d entire process b stopped. Prof. Bath is doing well but d biggest obstacle is LABOUR which he has 2 handle wit care. I sincerely think we are havin d best of hands maning strategic ministries at d federal level,it is our duty 2 support them so d jobs could b easier 4 dem.
I make no pretenses about the challenges of tackling corruption (because its biggest beneficiaries are also the main govt supporters). Unfortunately, development will continue to elude us until it is seriously curtailed. You have rightly described how the judicial process hampers the fight on corruption. Why can't it be changed. The subsidy fraud corruption is relatively easier to fix. Most of the petrol are imported via Apapa Port for example. Fix that leakage, properly audit the volume of petrol being imported, ascertain it is petrol etc. As a simple example, if the minsitry opens to tender a $5M prize for companies/individuals to develop a working prototype to system to properly audit fuel that is dispensed within Nigeria. I can assure you that we'll get entries that would combine aspects of global positioning, mobile networks, fluid viscosity, software development etc. We could even spark the imagination of the youths.

Corruption is a cancer. Its effects longer lasting than wars and genocide. It destroys communities and lives. No excuse can justify not combating it.

If they hadn't bungled the subsidy issue, then they would have been able to confront the union. Lesson: Choose your fights carefully! There are still unanswered questions regarding Bart, Geometric Power and AMCON. Conflict of interest issues need to be sorted out. By the way, wasn't the subsidy issue about deregulation? Still they haven't denied our assertion that deregulation is possible under a subsidy regime. We say, put a fixed subsidy per litre by let the market dictate price. Another example of policy inconsistency and incoherence.

Again, there is this presupposition that the best hands always get things right. LTCM (Long-Term Capital Management) demise comes to mind. Usually, giants are felled by little stones. Those little things that seem inconsequential, irrelevant, mere foot-notes which when acting in sync create an impact greater than the sum of the individual parts. Some sort of resonance!

#TellingHomeTruths

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Old 18th April 2012, 09:12 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

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Originally Posted by eniyanman View Post
I make no pretenses about the challenges of tackling corruption (because its biggest beneficiaries are also the main govt supporters). Unfortunately, development will continue to elude us until it is seriously curtailed. You have rightly described how the judicial process hampers the fight on corruption. Why can't it be changed. The subsidy fraud corruption is relatively easier to fix. Most of the petrol are imported via Apapa Port for example. Fix that leakage, properly audit the volume of petrol being imported, ascertain it is petrol etc. As a simple example, if the minsitry opens to tender a $5M prize for companies/individuals to develop a working prototype to system to properly audit fuel that is dispensed within Nigeria. I can assure you that we'll get entries that would combine aspects of global positioning, mobile networks, fluid viscosity, software development etc. We could even spark the imagination of the youths.

Corruption is a cancer. Its effects longer lasting than wars and genocide. It destroys communities and lives. No excuse can justify not combating it.

If they hadn't bungled the subsidy issue, then they would have been able to confront the union. Lesson: Choose your fights carefully! There are still unanswered questions regarding Bart, Geometric Power and AMCON. Conflict of interest issues need to be sorted out. By the way, wasn't the subsidy issue about deregulation? Still they haven't denied our assertion that deregulation is possible under a subsidy regime. We say, put a fixed subsidy per litre by let the market dictate price. Another example of policy inconsistency and incoherence.

Again, there is this presupposition that the best hands always get things right. LTCM (Long-Term Capital Management) demise comes to mind. Usually, giants are felled by little stones. Those little things that seem inconsequential, irrelevant, mere foot-notes which when acting in sync create an impact greater than the sum of the individual parts. Some sort of resonance!

#TellingHomeTruths
Well spoken as usual my Oga.... it baffles me when people come out and say we are making progress on the corruption fight in Naija or that we can actually wish away corruption by privatisations of govt establishments or duties to the populace.....

There are different ways to fight corruption but this present thieving govt has just not shown any balls or innovativness in tackling this hydra headed monster...
Has govt changed the ways of doing things? I have a lot of friends in Abuja and its business as usuall.........someone mentioned in his post that it takes two weeks to clear goods at the warf now and I laughed..... Has the person posting that ever imported any item?

The institutions that fight corruption have to be strenghtened...maybe we will have to privatise the courts so that an average Nigerian will be able to get justice,.....

While I have not given up on Naija...I will not be amongst those that will see black and say its grey or off white.....we all have to be more critical of the govt officials in power...that way they will understand that they are there to serve us!!! If they do not want any more critisms; then they should resign from their desk!!!
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Old 18th April 2012, 09:53 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

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Originally Posted by cashrules View Post
Well spoken as usual my Oga.... it baffles me when people come out and say we are making progress on the corruption fight in Naija or that we can actually wish away corruption by privatisations of govt establishments or duties to the populace.....

There are different ways to fight corruption but this present thieving govt has just not shown any balls or innovativness in tackling this hydra headed monster...
Has govt changed the ways of doing things? I have a lot of friends in Abuja and its business as usuall.........someone mentioned in his post that it takes two weeks to clear goods at the warf now and I laughed..... Has the person posting that ever imported any item?

The institutions that fight corruption have to be strenghtened...maybe we will have to privatise the courts so that an average Nigerian will be able to get justice,.....

While I have not given up on Naija...I will not be amongst those that will see black and say its grey or off white.....we all have to be more critical of the govt officials in power...that way they will understand that they are there to serve us!!! If they do not want any more critisms; then they should resign from their desk!!!
But it's also unfair to say that there hasn't been progress on the economic front.
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Old 18th April 2012, 10:27 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

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But it's also unfair to say that there hasn't been progress on the economic front.
Well, it depends on how you look at it.... Are we better off as a nation tahn we were 5 year ago?????

I will borrow from what my Oga Oracle said earlier in this forum.......'that when you in in a reverse gear, for you to move forward you have to stop going back first after which you will move forward.....

As for me..when we stop moving on the reverse gear..I will know it..am sure its the same with many people in Naija...
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