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  #18461 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 08:58 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by Salida View Post

At some point he told the whole world he needed to be "convinced" on the matter. What does that tell us?
Even on the subsidy, how long did it take Kachikwu to convince the President and Minister of Petroleum that the country needed to face reality and the price of products had to be increased?

You and I know that market confidence is key in economic matters. How much confidence did those pronouncements instill in our market?
I have asked this question before, what were the gains on the hard posturing and pronouncements by the President on devaluation?


3. I have my reservations about Godwin Emefiele's led MPC especially with regards to their approach and I have expressed that in the past, however when you have a President that needs to be "convinced" on economic issues rather than listen to the voice of reason by the people he appointed,it is a big issue.





Were the President's "opinions" on Economic matters based on inputs from an Economic Adviser before now? SMH



How long did it take the President to listen to the voice of reason since he even mentioned he needed to the "convinced" at some point? Were those opinions he was sharing based on inputs from his Economic team or his personal opinion?
We can continue to live in self denial of the erosion of confidence caused by those delayed actions and pronouncements in the last 12-15 months. The consequences of delayed actions are not always palatable.


It is a known fact that when a leader has a hard posture on issues, even his advisers sometimes can become isolated or resort to boot-licking to stay in his good books.

Even on security matters, has talking tough helped us at all? I have shared my reservations about the previous approaches on this forum as well.

We are earnestly waiting for Foreign Investors to return after we have succeeded in eroding confidence in our markets? Be rest assured that we will have a long waiting period.
Oga Salida I hear you but I don't completely agree with you. I agree with you to the extent that the President probably should be more circumspect with his utterances.

However on the issue of FPI, the truth is that if there is money to be made, the FPI guys will be here with their so called FOREX, unfortunately there is no money to be made now (due to the Oil price and also production problems due to the security issue) and that is why they aren't here. The idea then raises its head again that these guys are only good for the economy in the short term and not in the long term. Our policies shouldn't be too focused on them because we will only continue to undergo their boom and bust cycles with their global economy induced inflows and outflows.

On security, in a perfect scenario there would be a smooth transition from insecurity to perfect security, unfortunately there isn't. I am however happy we have a government that intends to sort this out both with force if necessary and by wide negotiation with the host communities in such a way that there will be direct gains by the population of the SS regions. May God help them.

Nigerians are indeed suffering at present because we are undergoing tough restructuring in a time of scarcity when some of them should have been undertaken in a time of plenty when the shocks would have been easier to absorb but I wouldn't bet against a solid recovery given time. I stand by the statement I made last year that it will get worse before it starts to get better.

Last edited by duduspace; 11th August 2016 at 09:22 AM.
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  #18462 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 09:00 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by waaan5 View Post
Who is running what in this govt self?

"El-Rufai said the CBN risked losing its power to set lending rates for commercial banks unless it immediately addressed the situation

Read more at: El-Rufai blasts CBN's monetary policies - Vanguard News

I pity Emiefele. The interference and political pressures are getting too much
In this Contraption, everybody is in it for what he/she can .............
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  #18463 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 09:04 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Eye on the ball, OPEC monthly report is out. Production from direct sources 1527 (last month 1379) from secondary sources 1508 (Last month 1549).

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_...ust%202016.pdf

Based on these figures, seems Q3 will be okayish.

In the interim, I await FAAC allocation for this month to see if the trend of decoupling from crude income continues or if last month was just a one-off.

Last edited by duduspace; 11th August 2016 at 09:27 AM.
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  #18464 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 09:05 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by ambitiousr View Post
My Oga, it is very unfortunate and sad at the same time. During the last elections, i was telling some of my friends here to be careful what they wished for concerning this "One Brand" government called "APC" who see themselves as agent of change especially at the federal level. It is true GEJ steps on some toes and made some unwelcome decision when it comes to fighting corruption but 'at least, the economy is working for large group of people in Nigeria' in which the reverse is the case today. Today, my friends are at war with themselves and their conscience. Let's see how far this confused, delusional, maladjusted, psychoneurotic, monomaniacal, phobic, and hypochondriac government is taken us to. Believe me my Oga, people are really and deeply suffering right now...I know how much I'm spending everyday for my fellow human being to get feed or just eat one meal in a day....All in the name of anti-business, anti-workers, anti-investing, and stupid policy of these government.
Abeg, small small now. A Security Guard on minimum wage like me dey read this forum now. You wan drive me away?. No be everybody know grammar like you and Oga Dudu now. So, make you dey pity me when you dey post with all these big big grammar. I normally take panadol after reading Oga Dudu's verbose post. Now that you wan come add your own, it means you wan make i begin take overdose of panadol and you know we dey for Buhari economy.
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  #18465 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 09:09 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

CBN may license new money transfer operators - The Nation Nigeria
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  #18466 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 09:24 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Part of the problem with Emefiele is that every action seems like a knee jerk reaction. Why not have a phased period of licensing and operational grace first instead of just suddenly yanking the carpet out from under everyone's feet ?
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  #18467 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 09:25 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by duduspace View Post
Oga Salida I hear you but I don't completely agree with you. I agree with you to the extent that the President probably should be more circumspect with his utterances.

However on the issue of FPI, the truth is that if there is money to be made, the FPI guys will be here with their so called FOREX, unfortunately there is no money to be made now (due to the Oil price and also production problems due to the security issue) and that is why they aren't here. The idea then raises its head again that these guys are only good for the economy in the short term and not in the long term. Our policies shouldn't be too focused on them because we will only continue to undergo their boom and bust cycles with their global economy induced inflows and outflows.

On security, in a perfect scenario there would be a smooth transition from insecurity to perfect security, unfortunately there isn't. I am however happy we have a government that intends to sort this out both with force if necessary and by wide negotiation with the host communities in such a way that there will be direct gains by the population of the SS regions. May God help them.

Nigerians are indeed suffering at present because we are undergoing tough restructuring in a time of scarcity when some of them should have been undertaken in a time of plenty when the shocks would have been easier to absorb but I wouldn't bet against a solid recovery given time. I stand by the statement I made last year that it will get worse before it starts to get better.
So you know and you have refused to send me some pounds to take hold body abi. Since Gunners will not win the 4th place trophy this season, there is therefore no need for you to go and watch their matches. So, just send me the season ticket money that you would no longer used.
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  #18468 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 09:36 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by duduspace View Post
Part of the problem with Emefiele is that every action seems like a knee jerk reaction. Why not have a phased period of licensing and operational grace first instead of just suddenly yanking the carpet out from under everyone's feet ?
Emefiele is only reacting the way an average Naija Top Executive/Top Govt Official reacts to events...

Before now CBN wasnt that bothered about the $20M remittances that never got to them to share to BDCs....cos oil money flowed!

Now that there is no more Oil money he has now remembered that he could actually be getting this inflow directly if only the sector was well arranged and regulated well all that while.
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  #18469 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 09:58 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Be patient, it takes time for reforms to take root, says Enelamah - The ScoopNG

We are used to getting things done sharpely sharpely...

This guy is asking us to be patient..
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  #18470 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 10:19 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by duduspace View Post
Oga Salida I hear you but I don't completely agree with you. I agree with you to the extent that the President probably should be more circumspect with his utterances.

However on the issue of FPI, the truth is that if there is money to be made, the FPI guys will be here with their so called FOREX, unfortunately there is no money to be made now (due to the Oil price and also production problems due to the security issue) and that is why they aren't here. The idea then raises its head again that these guys are only good for the economy in the short term and not in the long term. Our policies shouldn't be too focused on them because we will only continue to undergo their boom and bust cycles with their global economy induced inflows and outflows.

On security, in a perfect scenario there would be a smooth transition from insecurity to perfect security, unfortunately there isn't. I am however happy we have a government that intends to sort this out both with force if necessary and by wide negotiation with the host communities in such a way that there will be direct gains by the population of the SS regions. May God help them.

Nigerians are indeed suffering at present because we are undergoing tough restructuring in a time of scarcity when some of them should have been undertaken in a time of plenty when the shocks would have been easier to absorb but I wouldn't bet against a solid recovery given time. I stand by the statement I made last year that it will get worse before it starts to get better.
Sir Duduspace, I wonder why we think when people refer to "Foreign Investors", it is only the FPIs that is made reference to.It oversimplifies things when there are fundamental macro-economic issues that needs to be addressed!
Even you that is in the Diaspora is a Foreign investor.

Just as an example, are the airlines that have pulled out of Nigeria also FPIs(I am using this example because we have had a discussion about this on this thread before)?

Is the country not planning to go to the International market to access capital? Will the current fundamentals in our economy not have impact on rates we will get?
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  #18471 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 10:54 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by overload View Post
Be patient, it takes time for reforms to take root, says Enelamah - The ScoopNG

We are used to getting things done sharpely sharpely...

This guy is asking us to be patient..
There should be a timeline to the patience. We need to know when we will start seeing the ray of hope. An endless timeline is a facade.
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  #18472 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 11:06 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by overload View Post
Be patient, it takes time for reforms to take root, says Enelamah - The ScoopNG

We are used to getting things done sharpely sharpely...

This guy is asking us to be patient..
When they were promising 740,000 IMMEDIATE jobs, did they think of patience?
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  #18473 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 11:08 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Nigeria is Ready to Rally: Exotix Adds Naira Treasuries to Top Five Worldwide Picks

https://fronteranews.com/news/nigeri...rldwide-picks/

Quote:
As emerging and frontier markets rebound, Nigeria’s fortunes might finally be picking up, according to Stuart Culverhouse and Alan Cameron at Exotix Partners. The firm has just assigned a “Buy” recommendation on the country’s 12-month T-bills and added them to its top five picks of the bond world.
We are watching!!!
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  #18474 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 11:26 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Egypt Said to Reach Initial Loan Agreement With the IMF - Bloomberg



na our turn we dey wait for now..
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  #18475 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 11:43 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

NLNG subsidiary cuts workers’ salaries by 50% - Punch Newspapers

The Oil crunch is real!
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  #18476 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 11:44 AM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Dividend warrant issuance to stop by June 2017 - Punch Newspapers
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  #18477 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 12:27 PM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by Salida View Post
Sir Duduspace, I wonder why we think when people refer to "Foreign Investors", it is only the FPIs that is made reference to.It oversimplifies things when there are fundamental macro-economic issues that needs to be addressed!
Even you that is in the Diaspora is a Foreign investor.

Just as an example, are the airlines that have pulled out of Nigeria also FPIs(I am using this example because we have had a discussion about this on this thread before)?

Is the country not planning to go to the International market to access capital? Will the current fundamentals in our economy not have impact on rates we will get?
In the world we live in, it takes little for businesses to pull out of an Economy. I was there in Ireland in 08/09 when everyone was pulling out and their Taoseich didnt have to say anything for that to happen, they didnt even have the twin evil of BH and Avengers, the global economy dictated it all and Ireland went into a recession. Nigeria isnt Ireland and we have the potential to be a more dominant economy if we desire it but it will take time and planning to get there.

Certainly in a downturn some will cut and run, at a stage in Ireland, it wasnt only businesses trooping out at a stage 5000 people were leavin Ireland every week, As long as the fundamentals of the economy depend on the black gold, we are screwed while the twin conditions of low oil prices and marauding millitants hold sway.
It will take time to diversify away from all that and unfortunately the hoi poloi will bear the brunt of it.

May God help us all through it.

Last edited by duduspace; 11th August 2016 at 12:35 PM.
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  #18478 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 12:42 PM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by horlads View Post
There should be a timeline to the patience. We need to know when we will start seeing the ray of hope. An endless timeline is a facade.
Na this yoir kain question dey vex person. If you dont see the ray of hope by 2019 wont you vote the government out ?
Remember what happened to Food for all by the year 2000 ?
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  #18479 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 01:38 PM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Quote:
Originally Posted by duduspace View Post
Na this yoir kain question dey vex person. If you dont see the ray of hope by 2019 wont you vote the government out ?
Remember what happened to Food for all by the year 2000 ?
Well, knowing politicians for who they are, they will soon start a campaign that four years is not enough to fix the rot of 16 years and they need more time.

I'm not one of those that has patience. I'm only asking for those who may believe and heed their call for patience. Left to me, I would have conducted another election before they were sworn in and voted them out...
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  #18480 (permalink)  
Old 11th August 2016, 02:36 PM
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Default Re: Economicwatch

Based on Emefiele's statement that I was told in confidence, I can only conclude that his action on the forex for pilgrims can only be a unilateral decision. This is like things people do to be in the good book of the 'boss'. I may be wrong BUT that is my strong opinion based on information.

Buhari had a strong opinion on subsidy and devaluation. He stood for election not any adviser. You don't blame advisers when things don't go wrong. He is not convinced on either of them but was prevailed upon.

Is he right? I think he is wrong on subsidy matter but right with respect to devaluation.

There are many roads to a market. Investor confidence is good but is not the all in all. How much investor confidence was in China when they 'closed' their market to the whole world? How much investor confidence is in North Korea? Every country MUST do things that work for them instead of doing follow follow with western theories and ideas.

For example, election every four years is a drain in our resources as a nation! We should do away with it.

The western style democracy is EXPENSIVE and not meant for a developing country. We should junk it! Those are just examples of doing things DIFFERENTLY from the WEST. Did Cuba not do the same thing?

He did not appoint Emefiele and cannot 'sack' him. Emefiele is aware that with all the NSA wahala, he is not 'secure'. He is doing things that will 'endear' him to Buhari even things contrary to what was agreed by the economic team. That's why I said he is either clueless or a saboteur!

The President has said many times that the VP is in charge of the economy. So ALL blame about the economy should be on the VP. At the economic summit, the VP was also emphatic that he is in charge of the economy. There is a reason why the economic adviser is in the office of the VP. Check out appointments of those handling the 'economy' and you will see the hand of the VP there. It is not by coincidence.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Salida View Post
1. Sir Wanaj0, what I actually find amusing is the fact that you talked about the CBN Gov's statement which you were privy to before the pilgrims report and then started to make assertions and draw conclusions which I have actually highlighted in my previous post when you and I know that such approvals for Forex subsidy for pilgrims are not only done by the CBN.


2. Everyone can have an opinion. Even a man on the street should have an opinion about economic affairs. However, when the President of the country goes to the International community which we all know we would need to borrow from at some point and started making pronouncements about economic matters (which as you said is an opinion) especially when these stakeholders were complaining about FX illiquidity in our markets, be rest assured that they will take him more seriously than the man on the street or the CBN Gov himself which is supposed to be the one doing that. A layman on the street could also have a personal opinion even on what he or she has no understanding about!

At some point he told the whole world he needed to be "convinced" on the matter. What does that tell us?
Even on the subsidy, how long did it take Kachikwu to convince the President and Minister of Petroleum that the country needed to face reality and the price of products had to be increased?

You and I know that market confidence is key in economic matters. How much confidence did those pronouncements instill in our market?
I have asked this question before, what were the gains on the hard posturing and pronouncements by the President on devaluation?


3. I have my reservations about Godwin Emefiele's led MPC especially with regards to their approach and I have expressed that in the past, however when you have a President that needs to be "convinced" on economic issues rather than listen to the voice of reason by the people he appointed,it is a big issue.





Were the President's "opinions" on Economic matters based on inputs from an Economic Adviser before now? SMH



How long did it take the President to listen to the voice of reason since he even mentioned he needed to the "convinced" at some point? Were those opinions he was sharing based on inputs from his Economic team or his personal opinion?
We can continue to live in self denial of the erosion of confidence caused by those delayed actions and pronouncements in the last 12-15 months. The consequences of delayed actions are not always palatable.


It is a known fact that when a leader has a hard posture on issues, even his advisers sometimes can become isolated or resort to boot-licking to stay in his good books.

Even on security matters, has talking tough helped us at all? I have shared my reservations about the previous approaches on this forum as well.

We are earnestly waiting for Foreign Investors to return after we have succeeded in eroding confidence in our markets? Be rest assured that we will have a long waiting period.
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