ConOil

[laso]

Originally Posted by goldsun

tell us why you want to enter the stock

From my own analysis, i think d stock is cheap; trailing p/e of 6.6 and forward p/e of 5 based on d Q3 results. They have consistently paid dividend in d last eleven years except in 2007. D average dividend paid over d last 8 years is £2 wit a payout ratio of 50% in d last 3 yrs. Conoil has been reorganised under Adenuga & dey have been growing turnover & PAT in d last 3years. There Is no debt overhang. Conoil is sellin at 2yr low. 'But what do i know?'

[goldsun]

Originally Posted by laso

From my own analysis, i think d stock is cheap; trailing p/e of 6.6 and forward p/e of 5 based on d Q3 results. They have consistently paid dividend in d last eleven years except in 2007. D average dividend paid over d last 8 years is �0„52 wit a payout ratio of 50% in d last 3 yrs. Conoil has been reorganised under Adenuga & dey have been growing turnover & PAT in d last 3years. There Is no debt overhang. Conoil is sellin at 2yr low. 'But what do i know?'

i have forward pe of 3.5, i don't agree with you that there is no dept they have other credit balance of 1.66billion and half a billion trade creditors and using the 2010 annual report they have high exposure to leverage with dept equity ratio of 1.7 which was thier lowest in three years but they do have the capacity to service the dept , return of equity is low when compared to total and mobil though adequate. Thier cashflow is not impressive, it has only being positive for two financial year there was a huge drop in operation cash flow from 2009 to 2010(25.6billion to 6.3billion) and if am to use what oga abraham thought it would drop further in the q3 result. Of concern is that adenuga owns 74% of the company while the other directors owns meagre amount

[laso]

Originally Posted by goldsun

i have forward pe of 3.5, i don't agree with you that there is no dept they have other credit balance of 1.66billion and half a billion trade creditors and using the 2010 annual report they have high exposure to leverage with dept equity ratio of 1.7 which was thier lowest in three years but they do have the capacity to service the dept , return of equity is low when compared to total and mobil though adequate. Thier cashflow is not impressive, it has only being positive for two financial year there was a huge drop in operation cash flow from 2009 to 2010(25.6billion to 6.3billion) and if am to use what oga abraham thought it would drop further in the q3 result. Of concern is that adenuga owns 74% of the company while the other directors owns meagre amount

Thank u my oga. I actually made a mistake wit d forward p.e, u ar spot on. By debt overhang what i mean is 'borrowing'. For ROE dat u compared wit dat of mobil & total,i cannot agree less but im also looking at d p/bv of conoil which 2 me is better. I must admit,i have not yet master dis cashflow problem and im looking 4 bks 2 read on d subject, recommendation wil b appreciated. Lastly do u think dey wil b able 2 pay a dividend of at least £2 dis year?

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by laso

From my own analysis, i think d stock is cheap; trailing p/e of 6.6 and forward p/e of 5 based on d Q3 results. They have consistently paid dividend in d last eleven years except in 2007. D average dividend paid over d last 8 years is £2 wit a payout ratio of 50% in d last 3 yrs. Conoil has been reorganised under Adenuga & dey have been growing turnover & PAT in d last 3years. There Is no debt overhang. Conoil is sellin at 2yr low. 'But what do i know?'

(To the part in bold) Check number 9 on the list.

Subsidy FRAUD: Here Are Their Names And The Amounts They Took From Us Illegally

[goldsun]

Originally Posted by laso

Thank u my oga. I actually made a mistake wit d forward p.e, u ar spot on. By debt overhang what i mean is 'borrowing'. For ROE dat u compared wit dat of mobil & total,i cannot agree less but im also looking at d p/bv of conoil which 2 me is better. I must admit,i have not yet master dis cashflow problem and im looking 4 bks 2 read on d subject, recommendation wil b appreciated. Lastly do u think dey wil b able 2 pay a dividend of at least £2 dis year?

oracle just brought in an issue you need to consider before any other thing. Fuel subsidy probe.

[goldsun]

Originally Posted by Oracle

(To the part in bold) Check number 9 on the list.

Subsidy FRAUD: Here Are Their Names And The Amounts They Took From Us Illegally

but oando is not on this list. How is possible is it to recover this money

[laso]

Originally Posted by Oracle

(To the part in bold) Check number 9 on the list.

Subsidy FRAUD: Here Are Their Names And The Amounts They Took From Us Illegally

thank u sir oracle, i have been following d issue very closely. The lists u mentioned here has so far been corrected,d official lists does not include conoil. Assuming dis lists is correct, 2 me it is a non issue bcos d premises on which dat recommendation is based is faulty. The committee did a bad job and in my own opinion ar looking 4 cheap popularity which dey ar already getting.They have opened d chapter one of d whole story,there is stil more chapters...

[goldsun]

Originally Posted by laso

thank u sir oracle, i have been following d issue very closely. The lists u mentioned here has so far been corrected,d official lists does not include conoil. Assuming dis lists is correct, 2 me it is a non issue bcos d premises on which dat recommendation is based is faulty. The committee did a bad job and in my own opinion ar looking 4 cheap popularity which dey ar already getting.They have opened d chapter one of d whole story,there is stil more chapters...

by the time you see the controversy dragging the stock to 5naira ( and fortunately or unfortunately you are in the molue) you would be able to tell better whether they did a bad job or not

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by goldsun

but oando is not on this list. How is possible is it to recover this money

Oando wasn't on the list since. I didn't see. This is the list of companies that would refund(after probing) and not those that were probed.

My brother, it's not just recovering the money but prosecting and jailing them the partakers. This is defrauding the country!

[dr.abrahamb]

Originally Posted by goldsun

i have forward pe of 3.5, i don't agree with you that there is no dept they have other credit balance of 1.66billion and half a billion trade creditors and using the 2010 annual report they have high exposure to leverage with dept equity ratio of 1.7 which was thier lowest in three years but they do have the capacity to service the dept , return of equity is low when compared to total and mobil though adequate. Thier cashflow is not impressive, it has only being positive for two financial year there was a huge drop in operation cash flow from 2009 to 2010(25.6billion to 6.3billion) and if am to use what oga abraham thought it would drop further in the q3 result. Of concern is that adenuga owns 74% of the company while the other directors owns meagre amount

...also add or subtract exceptional item or extra-ordinary loss for wetin you dey analyse so O.

When SLS started with banks, the general advice was steer clear. I believe the same advice applies here too for any listed oil company affected by this probe.

[Babs_O]

I looked and looked and saw Oando was not on the list of those to refund subsidy payment wahala. Was happy. Though not yet uhuru as the reps are annoyed the report is in public domain even before they recieved it. Oando and not Conoil is on my own watch list to buy.

[nosa2]

Originally Posted by goldsun

but oando is not on this list. How is possible is it to recover this money

I don't expect one kobo to be recovered. I'm not an expert on this but I don't think the national assembly has the power to enforce the collection of these monies, as usual the Nigerian public is quick to judge and condemn these companies but they've not had a chance to respond to the allegations and that response can only be done in a court of law.

In my opinion the risk involved in investing in this sector is currently high and should be avoided especially since the market is very very cheap thou I think ultimately the companies would be vindicated

[laso]

Originally Posted by dr.abrahamb

...also add or subtract exceptional item or extra-ordinary loss for wetin you dey analyse so O.

When SLS started with banks, the general advice was steer clear. I believe the same advice applies here too for any listed oil company affected by this probe.

Sir, ar u expecting dem 2 declare exceptional items or extra ordinary loss d oando style or based on d house of rep probe?

[dr.abrahamb]

Originally Posted by laso

Sir, ar u expecting dem 2 declare exceptional items or extra ordinary loss d oando style or based on d house of rep probe?

Am basing it on the house of rep probe. How this thing may turn out, we do not know. When SLS started, it was like a joke. While some were shouting ''he can't do that'', savvy investors were jumping ship and getting saved.

I could have said tread carefully here, but what do I know?

[laso]

Originally Posted by dr.abrahamb

Am basing it on the house of rep probe. How this thing may turn out, we do not know. When SLS started, it was like a joke. While some were shouting ''he can't do that'', savvy investors were jumping ship and getting saved.

I could have said tread carefully here, but what do I know?

Ok nauw, thank u very much.

[Salida]

SON certifies Conoil lubricants for quality

[gbim]

Any dividend 4 us nw,

[gbim]

Originally Posted by goldsun

by the time you see the controversy dragging the stock to 5naira ( and fortunately or unfortunately you are in the molue) you would be able to tell better whether they did a bad job or not

what do u mean dat d share price will fall to 5 naira, are u saying dat conoil is not a good stock to invest in 4 nw

[goldsun]

Originally Posted by gbim

what do u mean dat d share price will fall to 5 naira, are u saying dat conoil is not a good stock to invest in 4 nw

i really do not mean anything other than the fuel subsidy controversy that is yet to end

[gbim]

Any dividend payment 4 us nw, has payment been decleared 4 d year end dec 31 ,2011