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So what can i say? Buy as soon as possible before you get shut out.
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"Beware the investing activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns." - Warren Buffet, 2008 BH Newsletter
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__________________
"Beware the investing activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns." - Warren Buffet, 2008 BH Newsletter
Last edited by Ikechukwu Emelike; 20th June 2009 at 05:34 PM. Reason: "Copyright infringement - content removed and replaced with link" |
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Yeah. The prospectus doesn't carry the closing date. A lady frm UBA global markets (Sara Duncan) confirmed that it'll be on till abt end of january.
I seem to like the board composition (Anyaoku, Ekwueme, Mbanefo), but it seems an all eastern affair. The forecast for 2009-20011 seem to be quite tite, PE ratio of 2 and earnings/div yield of 45%/25% respectively. |
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I think Orient Refinery makes sense. And the pple behind it are grade 1(Anyaoku, Ekwueme, Mbanefo), .Not the kind of pple to mess up. I think by putting it in anambra, they are trying to develop their state and any investor can be assured that the usual South-south risks won't come up.
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“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”- Ben Graham |
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Yeah I concur. You see, most guys dont even go thru d prospectus b4 concluding on the if an offer is good or otherwise. There's no doubt that this offer could be a potential money spinner to investors ready to take full advantage of the opportunities it provide
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__________________
"Beware the investing activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns." - Warren Buffet, 2008 BH Newsletter
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Personally for me (even though i consider myself a long term Investor), i always like my investments to be liquid, so i think i will jump in whenever they decide to list although if i have spare cash, i might pick up some units |
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Well, d offer is still very much on. Actually there's no closing date on the form and per discussion wt uba global market contact the offer is on 1st come 1st serve basis.
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Question: Why did this PP raise only 5% of the target? Why are institutional investors not swooping on this? Quote:
In January 2005, a prospect evaluation was done for OPL 915; the engineering report from that work is essential for one to evaluate the prospect of the company. Orient does not have the technology to operate an OPL; who will they be partnering with? This is a long-haul investment. The UBA Global Markets report is very misleading in making projections for 2009. Unless Orient gets foreign partners, the refinery will not fly. . |
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But 915 and 916 arent the only feedstock supply options: Quote:
And finally, UBAGM isnt trying to mislead anybody. They stated quite clearly that about 85% of the needed capital is being sourced from China EximBank on which interest will be paid. It is based on the success of this offer (which will go a long way in determining whether the loan goes through or not) that those projections are made.
__________________
"Beware the investing activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns." - Warren Buffet, 2008 BH Newsletter
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The last paragraph of page 11 reads:
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To suppose that these plans and projects can be completed in time for a N45 EPS for FY 2009 is quite laughable. . |
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The current price per litre of petrol in Nigeria is highly subsidised. How will they be able to make profit if they are to sell their product in the local market? Personally, I am not too keen.
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Link Update on Orient....The NEWS - News
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__________________
"Beware the investing activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns." - Warren Buffet, 2008 BH Newsletter
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*The crude produced is sold to foreign companies at about $90/barrel (presently). Now assume that it costs say $50 to produce this oil, the producers and the govt pocket $40. This crude then has to be shipped, tax paid on it in the destination country, refined, and then the resulting fuel shipped back. All these processes have associated costs which are significant thereby driving the cost of the fuel quite high - probably above N100. It is for this reason that the govt has to subsidise it - let's not debate the wisdom or stupidity of that for now. Now, for a refinery with its own fields, the oil is extracted and sent straight to its plant at that $50 cost, no shipping, to taxes etc - well maybe with a little profit if another corporation owns the fields. This therefore makes locally refined fuel much cheaper than imported fuel and this is even moreso if the plant is an efficient one.
__________________
"Beware the investing activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns." - Warren Buffet, 2008 BH Newsletter
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What are the unrealistic and misleading aspects of this report?: Quote:
As an aside, to show how much value could be put on newspaper reports about an engineering project such as this, read: http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/busin...ticle04/040406 ; were the claims in the article true, the refinery would be up and running right now. If institutional investors aren't rushing for this, you've got to ask yourself why. Poser: on the average, how long does it take to complete a refinery and get it up and running? The answer to that question will tell you how irresponsibly negligent (in the very least) the UBA-GM researchers were, and should inform any small-time investor why they're better off putting their money elsewhere. What you wrote about margins is partly correct. BUT, remember the investment is not in an oil producing company, it is in refining; the two will be separated; the refinery does not "own" the oilfields. It is precisely because refineries operate on margins, and nto directly in the oil prospecting and production business that things are shaky. And Dragon123's fear is very real: refining by itself isn't very profitable, or, rather, there are mor eprofitable aspects of the oil industry; this has implications for investors; that's partly the reason why there've been no new refineries in the US, say, for about two decades. I'll locate a report or two for more information. . Last edited by Avocado; 23rd December 2007 at 05:06 AM. |
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Well, i don't know about seeing the report.
First of all, if i paid millions to carry out such research, I'm not sure I'll want to make it available on the net to every Tom, Dick and Harry. Secondly, if they're lying about the whole thing, what will it take them to cook-up a phony report and paste it on the net? Thirdly, what makes you think you'll understand the report anyway? 100s, maybe 1,000s of pages of technical data. I read engineering but even i doubt my ability to professionally assess such a report. Finally, when the banks tell you they're raising N100b and in 5 lines tell you what they HOPE to use it for, dyou ask for research to support their conclusions/decisions? Quote:
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But why are you even so concerned about inst. investors? They aren't God, are they? What if they sell their shares in a company you own, will you just do the same blindly? Investing is an individual thing. All that matters is if it fits your long-range plan. How long does it take to build a refinery? Probably about 4 years. See Virgin plans oil refinery | NEWS.com.au Business and Why Not Build More Refineries But OPR isn't building a refinery. Instead, they're importing a ready-made one: Quote:
And finally, I must tell you that you're very very wrong. Refineries are profitable esp when there's a shortage of petroleum products. Infact, that's one of the reasons why none has been built in the US for so long! See EagleSpeak: Oil Refinery Shortage Quote:
Top Financial News pid=10000087&sid=ai2PoL0XZ1zY&refer=top_world_news ; Peak Oil Debunked: 254. REFINERY BUILDING BOOM IN MIDDLE EAST .
__________________
"Beware the investing activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns." - Warren Buffet, 2008 BH Newsletter
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Interesting response. Now, let’s take a look:
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As to the rest of the post, we find even more curious conclusions:
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Regarding the links you supplied: 1)What happened to the Akwa Ibom refinery, this news item is dated 2001. Aluko’s article is a good collection of refining projects that haven’t really taken-off; this would suggest there are issues beyond the discussion on these pages making things difficult. 2)Did you read the links you supplied? At the Eaglespeak location, you could have read: “The cost of building a refinery requires a sufficient return on investment projection to justify spending the money. If higher rates of return are available elsewhere, why would you invest in a lower rate of return?]”; this is the argument already posted in my earlier post; do you disagree with it? 3)You further quoted from the Eaglespeak location: Quote:
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4)What’s your engineering opinion about the information and data on this page on refining margins: Estimated Gasoline Price Breakdown & Margins Details (this link is from one of the pages you supplied). The information in the links you supplied do not support your position. Some general comments: We’re here to share information and ideas, not to take rigid positions based on ideology. If Orient supplies good information regarding the source of the feedstock for the refining project, this poster’s opinion must change along with the facts of the new information. Even when we disagree, it’s all for good: humble investors looking to get things better by investing on the NSE; not to win arguments, but to articulate positions in order to help make better decisions. The least we could do int his regard is to read the information we post, or give a caveat if we haven't evaluated the information, and learn where was can. I've learned a few things from this exchange, least of which is not the history of failed promises regarding the building/assembly of refineries in Nigeria. . |
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| Orient Petroleum - Nairaland | This thread | Refback | 12th December 2007 06:55 AM | |
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