Orient Petroleum PP

[Taipan]

@Avocado
Ha ha ha, you really got me laughing! Well, there's this saying:"We see things the way we are..." I guess that's the issue here so there's no point going on and on.
I like the idea of OPR so I guess all I'll see are their good parts. You probably hate their guts - or at least aren't exactly in love with them - so your stance is understandable.
Whatever, I've actually gone ahead to put my money where my mouth is - or isn't that how they say it? - so we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.
Hope in about a years time to be able to say "Told yaaaaa!!!"
Be cool.

[Avocado]

You're still mistaken; to summarise:

1) I've nothing against OPR, only against UBA-GM researchers for being overly unrealistic with the timeline by writing in the report that the refinery will be on stream in late 2008 for returns by FY 2009.

2) UBA-GM researchers neglected the uncertaintites with the feedstock coming from yet undeveloped OPLs 915 and 916; this isn't trivial. OPR will need institutional investors to develop an oilfield; they aren't even talking about that yet.

3) The OPLs are security for the loans from the China corporation; I hope OPR 've got their acts right; we hope to see OPR succeed.

I wish you good luck with this investment; and I'll wish OPR great success too: if they're able to pull this off within a reasonable time frame, they'll ease lots of suffering, and you'll make good money, and, of course, there'll satisfaction in being part of it from the beginning, eh?

And, that attempt at philosophy just doesn't cut it; as one who read engineering, you ought to know that you should see a report as it is, not as you are, and it is always important to separate personal feelings from evaluations made from a report. Too bad, you still didn't mention what engineering you read, though
.

[DaInvestor]

i have been following this discussion with keen interest in seeing where it would end and its funny cos what i expected happened. the man selling the idea has already bought the idea so there is no going back while the man opposing the idea will probably not buy it... to an extent u both have valid points

first no matter the details of the technical report u are given it doesnt necessarily mean u can predict where the tide will turn though thats pretty obvious i think.. thats one for u to understand is one thing for it to be implemented is another....

i have a few questions for u guys though i have not seen the reports or the articles of these offer

1 has the OPL been confirmed to have oil in commercial qua.. if so whats the estimate.
2 for the OPL to be developed like the other guy rightly said u need it to be an OML meaning the commercial quantity has been confirmed and activities are ready to begin....
3 who owns the licence is it Orient and like one of the points does the PP cover ownership of both the OPL and the refinery or just the refinery.
4 is the site the major contributor of raw materials to the refinery and if so how much like in %.
5 what is the back up plan if for instance the project does not generate the required result as in the source of raw materials has not been confirmed but the refinery has been built.
6 how long does it practically take to build a refinery and how long does it take to develop a site.
7 what is the mode of transportation of the crude to the refinery is it thru pipelines like we have now or are there other means

i mean the factors to be considered are much its when u can answer these question can u then authoritative start basing ur analysis on the figures and things like dat

the long and short of what am saying is all these questions are based on how soon the project will fly and if it does fly believe me u can never go wrong in the oil business the margins are too mad... it actually costs less than $15 per barrel to produce and it sells for about $90 and thats on the high side i know it costs much less.. the refinery is also a very profitable business as long as there is constant supply of crude and its an open market system....

so the question is just like the transcorp arguement would u rather put ur money in this kind of venture now or wait till the stuff is fully operational cos remember transcorp also has oil blocks, telecommunications licence, hospitality business, agriculture and people are of the opinion that the company is not worth investing in now but if all things go according to plan the company on nitel alone would be one of the most profitable ventures in the country if not africa but again will it??????

so it depends on ur risk appetite would u rather put ur money there now based on hearsay and reports or would u wait for physical evidence and confirmation of implementation of these plans... but if everything works according to plan then the man that invests now would probably benefit more from the company than the man that invests later...

as for me based on my experience with IGI since i no too get money i would rather wait to see the physical signs b4 jumping on such offers and note thats my own personal opinion, i believe i would make the same amount u make by joining much later maybe 2009 when them don develop the oil blocks and don build the refinery.... or take it as my loss it depends on ur risk appetite but i can assure u an OPL does not necessarily mean u go produce dat field.... i go dey yarn more later e be like say my tory don dey plenty

[Avocado]

...believe me u can never go wrong in the oil business the margins are too mad... it actually costs less than $15 per barrel to produce and it sells for about $90 and thats on the high side i know it costs much less.. the refinery is also a very profitable business as long as there is constant supply of crude and its an open market system....

Lots can go wrong. And "oil business" is only generic: producing is quite different from refining. The smoke-screen is not being able to separate investment in a refinery from that in prospecting.

Per your questions, the UBA-GM document in on page 1 of this thread; all of your questions 1-7 are addressed from the point of view of UBA-GM researchers in the report. This exchange has been based on that report.
.

[DaInvestor]

Originally Posted by DaInvestor

i have a few questions for u guys though i have not seen the reports or the articles of these offer

1 has the OPL been confirmed to have oil in commercial qua.. if so whats the estimate.
2 for the OPL to be developed like the other guy rightly said u need it to be an OML meaning the commercial quantity has been confirmed and activities are ready to begin....
3 who owns the licence is it Orient and like one of the points does the PP cover ownership of both the OPL and the refinery or just the refinery.
4 is the site the major contributor of raw materials to the refinery and if so how much like in %.
5 what is the back up plan if for instance the project does not generate the required result as in the source of raw materials has not been confirmed but the refinery has been built.
6 how long does it practically take to build a refinery and how long does it take to develop a site.
7 what is the mode of transportation of the crude to the refinery is it thru pipelines like we have now or are there other means

Read thru the report no definite / specific answers

Ques 1 In the Anambra Basin, oil has been discovered by Shell and Elf. The prospective estimates are quite high, about one billion barrels of oil and gas and, maybe, 30 billion cubic feet of gas. "Eighteen wells have been drilled out of which five were discovered to have oil and gas". So the refinery is being located equidistant to the raw materials," he said but not specifically OPL blocks 915 and 916. so my quest is whats the projection from these oil blocks not the basin and note i got this from one of their MDs speech on the net.

Quest 2 have they obtained a mining licence, if so why wasnt it stated in the report, until u have a mining licence u cannot produce crude, so why havnt they obtained a minng licence but base their projection on the OPL as the main source of raw materials. or am i missing something here????

Ques 3 The report uses the parent company's(OPR) stake in OPL blocks 915 and 916 as a basis of analysis meanwhile the PP is for OPR R&P which is an independent entity on its own different from that of the parent company. Does dat mean the raw material would be given at a concession to the refining company or it would be as in open market?????? need clarification on dat too cos the report does not cover dat if im right. or is OPR the same as OPR R&P???

Ques 4 the report says "Orient’s OPL blocks 915 and 916 will serve as the main source of feedstock supply,which will ensure steady supply of crude oil to the refinery as well as saving the company the likely costs arising from frequent modification of the refinery on the back of changing composition of oil feedstock"
main source as in 70%???, 80%????90%???? of raw materials required????reason being dat if the OPL fails who knows bad drilling campaign, wrong seismic data or estimates u never can tell, what impact would it have on the refinery as regards raw materials....

Ques 5 this is a sequel to the earlier quest "Crude Oil Feedstock Supply
To guarantee regular supply of crude oil feedstock, Orient Refinery design is based on three (3) alternative sources of crude namely;
�� barging Brass blend crude up from the Niger and Anambra rivers;
�� construction of a bye-pass from the NNPC Auchi to Enugu pipeline; and
�� development of nearby oil and gas fields in Oil Prospecting Licenses (“OPLs”)
915 & 916. , barging blend crude??? rising opex and security risks, construction of bye-pass line, would like to know if its being constructed now??? and whats the supply to the NNPC Auchi to Enugu pipeline like, its very key how efficient is it right now???, development of nearby oil fields do they own these fields, how long will this campaign take and note tehse are meant to be back up plans what % of raw materials would they provide????

Ques 6 they hope to finish the refinery and commence production by late 2008, 1 is the time frame really feasible considering the time frame is less than 10 months, is it going to be fully operational by that time, cos i know there should be a window to kinda test run the facility before it becomes fully operational i.e. producing to full capacity

Ques 7 will not be too relevant if the refinery is located close to the production site but still is it thru the same method the other oil companies have been using which has been hurting them due to vandalization or have they deviced new means of tranporting the crude......?????

note: all these questions are just to determine the reality of them starting production in 2008 or even 2009 as they claim, i ve not even started looking at the numbers they are proposing, i ll leave that to the analysts.

on looking at the report its even deficient in analysing its risk factors and mitigation by overlooking one of the fundamental risks which is security to both personnel and equipments which is also probably one of the most important now in the nigerian oil and gas terrain??? i wonder why such and oversight!!!! supply of feedstock risk not properly addressed by the report, its still mainly dependent on an oil block thats not started producing, no mining licence has been obtainedunless of course the rules have changed??? i really dont know..

i ll luv u guys that know more about this PP offer to educate us on these things, there might have been a lot of things i overlooked while posting this reply cos my research and analysis are not in-depths o any input would be appreciated.

Thanks and compliments of the season

[Taipan]

Originally Posted by DaInvestor

i have been following this discussion with keen interest in seeing where it would end and its funny cos what i expected happened. the man selling the idea has already bought the idea so there is no going back while the man opposing the idea will probably not buy it... to an extent u both have valid points
....
i have a few questions for u guys though i have not seen the reports or the articles of these offer

DaInvestor, thanks for putting in a word, but I think we've all said too much already. Makes me remember the story of the 7 blind men who on returning from the zoo were asked to describe an elephant...
So I think I'll just let the questions pass. I arrived at the same conclusions as you did (above) which is why I decided to opt out. By now, anybody who wants to buy has already bought - or at least made up their minds - while those who haven't probably won't no matter what else is said.
Anyway, OPR was my own personal Christmas present.
Hope you all find something better.
MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY NEW YEAR in advance!!!

[panasharp]

Very interesting and informative discussion.

The management composition of a company matters, not the calibre especially for a new company but their business experience or what specifically they bring to the company.

That said, I am no engineer, however I am not too such one can build a refinery in 12 months and start production a month or two later i.e. start and complete construction 2008 and start production in 2009. Not to mention the issue of drilling and sourcing the raw material.

It is all about opportunity cost; what other investment option are available and compares to the projected return on this PP.

Happy New Year
Happy 2008 Investing and Trading

[Etubom]

Just got Orient Refinery prospectus and Application Form. I understand design is at advanced stage in China. Construction camp is currently being built.

orient-private-placement-261107.pdf

OPR-RP Application Form.doc

[hispy99]

Originally Posted by Etubom

Just got Orient Refinery prospectus and Application Form. I understand design is at advanced stage in China. Construction camp is currently being built.

Attachment 132

Attachment 133

Check here for a discussion on Orient


Orient Petroleum PP

[Dr. Awo]

The document did not sate the opening date nor the closing date of the offer. Anyone who ahs this info please share with us.

[Apache]

Originally Posted by Dr. Awo

The document did not sate the opening date nor the closing date of the offer. Anyone who ahs this info please share with us.

There's already an existing thread on Orient petroleum pp in which it has been discussed exhaustively so to speak. just click on the link provided by hispy99.
we should continue this discussion there and stop making posts on this thread as it amounts to duplication

[solainvest]

Orient Petroleum to commence oil production in 2009

ORIENT Petroleum, an indigenous oil firm based in Anambra, announced in Awka at the weekend that it would commence oil production next year.

Guardian Newspapers

[pegheneji]

it may be a good buy, Charms did pp sometime in 2006 at about N6.50 and am sure it was not sucessful. but today no person could see charms to buy. NEM was pusueing people with right issue at 55k while mutuual benefit did a po at 60k but were not so much considered but today it has reverse. let analise the prospectus and see how realistic they are.

[riskreturn]

Originally Posted by pegheneji

it may be a good buy, Charms did pp sometime in 2006 at about N6.50 and am sure it was not sucessful. but today no person could see charms to buy. NEM was pusueing people with right issue at 55k while mutuual benefit did a po at 60k but were not so much considered but today it has reverse. let analise the prospectus and see how realistic they are.

The analysis seems simple: If it commences production in 2009, it is doubtful if substantial profit per share will be made the same 2009 (presumably, with the result being announced to the market in early 2010) and start distributing dividends at the same time. You can imagine what price appreciation will have occured in about 2 years time by using the same money to subscribe for any of these attractive POs and IPOs or even by investing in the presently generally low-priced banking stocks in the secondary market. The present situation in the market seems not to favour investments with long gestation periods like the present one; transcorp (which plans to start dividend payment in 2010 or so); etc. It generally does not pay investors to wait for many years before getting high returns, given the present situation - including the need to raise borrowed funds at 25% per annum to invest in the stock market. That is my own quick observation.

[andico26]

The chams pp was at N5.00 in 2005 and it was extremely successful to the initial investors who even got a bonus for 4 for 1