ARM Properties Plc PP

[wanaj0]

Originally Posted by BLUEMONEY

The 2008 PE is 208.50 and then the 2009 & 2010 PE is projected to be 4.44 and 3.09 Respectively.
This guys must either be Magicians or they have Midas Touch.

Well, if you look closely at the numbers you will see that it makes some sense. Pre operational expenses eat deep into the 2008 figure. The money they are raising compared with what they are using to do business now is huge so expect an impact. Also, the new shares I assume was included in the 2008 PE calculation thus distorting it. Money raised will not affect 2008 performance in any way.

While waiting for the prospectus, this is actually loking interesting.

[gafunk]

The file needs to be reloaded as it seems corrupted. Your effort in correcting would be appreciated. Thanks.

[knightofdelta]

I have analyzed the teaser and I believe that it is really a good buy. The problem is the issue of return money. I don't mind getting as much as I can possibly afford. I have attached my personal analysis. It may be a bit technical but the summary of the whole sheebang is that the price is likely to experience a 300% upward swing 12 months after listing, which is not bad.

ARM Properties Plc.doc

[maxiakala]

Knightofdelta,

Your analysis was very insightful. U go sabi book when u dey school oooo!!!!! Anyway nice work. U rock.

The PP is to start by Monday, July 21, 2008.

[Avocado]

Theory, like analysis, is grey; reality's golden tree is green.

ARM is long on projections and short on integrity. Many who've dealt with them on property deals can compare their projections/analysis to performance. They lost their way.
.

[saintkayode101]

Originally Posted by Avocado

Theory, like analysis, is grey; reality's golden tree is green.

ARM is long on projections and short on integrity. Many who've dealt with them on property deals can compare their projections/analysis to performance. They lost their way.
.

If you have more info about these guys please make u share before we put our money on the thread mill! Still awaiting full financials.

[Avocado]

Ha; Well... Their document has been attached already; let's take a look at it and see; that'll be evaluated on its merit, and other factors will be considered. The opinion is this: ARM have presented as a quite not straighforward bunch; they've done that with properties, and they've done something similar with their Discovery Fund. Of course, any of their members of staff is welcome on these pages to debate their integrity. A specific charge is that they're very long on plans on paper, projections, and analyses; they're quite short on accurate information, performance, and meeting their obligations.
.

[Apache]

Originally Posted by Avocado

Ha; Well... Their document has been attached already; let's take a look at it and see; that'll be evaluated on its merit, and other factors will be considered. The opinion is this: ARM have presented as a quite not straighforward bunch; they've done that with properties, and they've done something similar with their Discovery Fund. Of course, any of their members of staff is welcome on these pages to debate their integrity. A specific charge is that they're very long on plans on paper, projections, and analyses; they're quite short on accurate information, performance, and meeting their obligations.
.

I have to disagree with you on this one. I am aware of the delays they have been having in completing an estate project (at least I'm aware of 1 for now), however, i won't extend those inefficiencies to their mutual funds.
I do not know the reasons why the delay in completing the project but we all know that the issues faced with real estate are not same with the stock market (referring to the comparison with discovery fund)
I know I personally raised an issue on increase in expenses for discovery's fund last financial year but i wouldn't term that "not been starightforward" or not meeting with expectations (at least not yet afterall I hav not seen their financial report).
Let's see the financials for this PP and then we can decide how realistic their plans are and if it will make a good buy but I wouldn't pass a judgement based on a single project to put everything done by ARM (including their mutual funds arm) into question.

[faoogoke]

My take on this is simple. I'll wait till they list and then buy from the market.

[faoogoke]

My take on this is simple. I will wait till when they list then buy from the market. Also, I'll take it on medium/long term.

[Avocado]

The disagreement is welcome. There's at least an attached PP document up on this thread. My advice was for it to be read, and that notice be taken for what is *not* written. "Their document has been attached already; let's take a look at it and see; that'll be evaluated on its merit, and other factors will be considered." were my specific words." Perhaps there's a small explanation for the forty-six fold drop in that PE?

The assessment about straighforwardness had nothing to do with any issue anyone may have raised earlier. The question of ARM's integrity in real estate matters remains in question, with the specific charge that they're excellent in making plans and projections, but slow to execute and complete. And yes, they have made unmet promises regarding both their Aggressive Growth and Discovery Funds, even if these were small matters; but issues of integrity could be such. And yes, a single project could be enough to ruin a good reputation not least because a lot of investors have had their plans ruined by rolling promises yet unmet and up to two years late.

In any case, since there's a clear admission of ignorance regarding delays in a specific project, shouldn't it be the wise course to stand back until being sufficiently informed? Without credible information, once could hardly make sound decisions; and when the information changes, even one's opinion has to change.

[Apache]

Originally Posted by Avocado

The disagreement is welcome. There's at least an attached PP document up on this thread. My advice was for it to be read, and that notice be taken for what is *not* written. "Their document has been attached already; let's take a look at it and see; that'll be evaluated on its merit, and other factors will be considered." were my specific words." Perhaps there's a small explanation for the forty-six fold drop in that PE?

The assessment about straighforwardness had nothing to do with any issue anyone may have raised earlier. The question of ARM's integrity in real estate matters remains in question, with the specific charge that they're excellent in making plans and projections, but slow to execute and complete. And yes, they have made unmet promises regarding both their Aggressive Growth and Discovery Funds, even if these were small matters; but issues of integrity could be such. And yes, a single project could be enough to ruin a good reputation not least because a lot of investors have had their plans ruined by rolling promises yet unmet and up to two years late.

In any case, since there's a clear admission of ignorance regarding delays in a specific project, shouldn't it be the wise course to stand back until being sufficiently informed? Without credible information, once could hardly make sound decisions; and when the information changes, even one's opinion has to change.

I thought the attached document is a teaser hence a full document is to be expected abi? cos the attached document doesn't give any history on the past performance of this company. Once we have this, we will be able to see if the future projections are realistic or not.
Personally, the attached document doesn't reveal enough. It discloses enough to arouse my interest (i guess that's why it's called a teaser) but I can't make a 'BUY" decision on this hence the need for a full document which I believe will be made available to those that indicated interest based on the teaser. Hopefully, someone on this forum should be able to get one and upload.

The point i was trying to make is that we can't use the performance of one project to say that a company is slow to execute and complete. I know that this company has been/is involved in other real estate projects. Is this issue same across all the projects? If the answer is yes, then I completely agree with you.
For instance, UPDC is involved in the 1004 estate project. pple have paid monies since 2006 yet they have not been able to move into their houses. Will I now say that UPDC has integrity issues irrespective that they have given series of dates and deadlines that have not been met? No because I know of the issues they have with government etc hence the delay.

Anywayz, It's not like I am trying to defend them or anything but looking at it objectively.

PS: You mentioned somewhere in your post that ARM wasn't a straightforward bunch and they have done something similar with their discovery fund. I assumed you were referring to a post I made in the discovery fund thread on their last financial year result as compared to IBTC. Since you said it has nothing to do with that and also said they have missed targets with both discovery and agressive growth fund. Abeg, give me the gist as i have units of both Discovery and Agressive growth fund let me know what i am involved in.

Meanwhile, congrats on your forum moderator status .

[knightofdelta]

ARM Properties is a public liability company so it will be a good idea to see their full prospectus going forward. From the little I have seen from their teaser, I believe that it is a good buy and based on Avocado's sentiments, a risky one at that and with the probability of crashing out or giving massive returns. I love risks, so I am going for this one even without seeing the prospectus.

@Apache... um, are you sure you were objective with your post? I remember reading one of your posts where you said you had a soft spot for these ARM guys... abi?

[Avocado]

Well, thing is: yours truly's quite invested in both DF and the AGF. After a long battle, they activated the online access. Before that, it was a struggle obtaining price histories. There was a lot of respect for ARM, not least because of their (early) GTB connections. They withered some of it. And no, one isn't exiting the DF and AGF just yet. The funds are themselves doing not badly; but looking to issues of integrity vs. promises, there's quite a lapse, even though in small matters.

The document of for ARM properties should - again - be evaluated on its won merits. But, yes, a single project could ruin a good company's reputation, and especially if they've handled it extraordinarily shabbily; how could they have an ongoing failure and then expect to insipre the market based on their integrity and performance? They can't have it both ways. They could revise their time lines, but doing that three, four, five times isn't worthy of a serious company.

And yeah, EIC gave some ammunition to fight the very bad ones on SMN; and, you know, I thought you guys were getting a commission, until this very clever note, eh, saying it was all pro bono. This na extreme globalisation! God dey!
.

[yusuff]

find attached ARM pp memorandom.

[amoslord]

to knightof delta:

10x a grt deal 4 ur analysis.i guess it was a worthwhile xperience.

To avcado:
kudos!!!!



like apache,i ve got soft-soft for the ARM guys,but i will like us to judge the PP on merit n prospect(mid/long term).

i ve bin on the neck on some of the officials for the past 4 years,and can say to the best of my IQ that ARM is a diamond and only for discerning minds.i have bin waiting for this offer since i saw an advert in the newspaper.i had 2 give up the zenith equity offer.

much as it is good to buy and wait for good returns,i firmly belive it's worthwhile to make suggestions.you've got ideas that can push ARM along,feel free to approach any of d guys.i tried it!and was shocked at the enormous potentials at ARM's doorstep.keeping bad belly(based on one project delay) will only ruin invetsment.

it's a truism that the future belongs to those who can see potentials before they become obvious.i guess the same goes for ARM.