Technical Analysis

[lordgbengss]

The pennant has been broken resuming the downward trend,but let not 4get that there will be opportunities to buy for those who have heart,as we wait the index get to 20000 as predicted.

[yemo]

Originally Posted by Gengen

Madeonline / Others,

I am interested in this trainning program too. How can I get one?

I want to have a better understanding of technical analysis.

Also, do you have know websites (other than NigeriaSecurities.com) that have ability to do technical analysis, i.e. generate stock charts?

Try www.saibatrade.com. No technical analysis but price & volume for active stocks. Am sure if you ask them nicely its something they can incorporate :-)

[yemo]

Originally Posted by zainabusman

>we need to see more predictive chartism. I dont see the value of after the fact charting.

> fundamental analysis combined with some technical analysis to determine entry point is a good strategy

Cn you give examples of what you find useful in terms of predictive charting? For example, its is possible to construct a chart using a "forecast algorithn/function" that takes as its input the historical price volatility of the stock. But the question is what would be the optimum number of days (ie 30 - 75 in current market conditions(?))

Then what type of fundamental analysis? It is possible to show PERatio and EPS next to the above chart, but we have found that typically in this market comprehensive balance sheet info is hard to find on a good day.

[yemo]

Originally Posted by madeonline

These are trying times and the charts are all heading in similar directions .

Some sectors are bucking the rend every now and then. Industrials against the NSE Index

[yemo]

Sector Totals as at 20 Mar 2009

[lordgbengss]

Originally Posted by yemo

Cn you give examples of what you find useful in terms of predictive charting? For example, its is possible to construct a chart using a "forecast algorithn/function" that takes as its input the historical price volatility of the stock. But the question is what would be the optimum number of days (ie 30 - 75 in current market conditions(?))

Then what type of fundamental analysis? It is possible to show PERatio and EPS next to the above chart, but we have found that typically in this market comprehensive balance sheet info is hard to find on a good day.

Hi,pls wat do you mean by historical price volatility and how do you plan to get it? your response will be appreciated.

[yemo]

Originally Posted by lordgbengss

Hi,pls wat do you mean by historical price volatility and how do you plan to get it? your response will be appreciated.

Apologies. Just the movement in the closing price of the stock over time. Some people use other factors as indicators.

[Catweasel]

Interesting Analysis and recommendations by our friends at Meristem

[zainabusman]

I recommend the book "Come into my Trading Room" by Alex Elder for those who are serious about trading.

[lordgbengss]

I think this thread should be resurrected again,i am not a savvy at picking fundamentally sound stocks but can s1 help so that the gurus in here can help analyse this stocks technically.thanks

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by lordgbengss

I think this thread should be resurrected again,i am not a savvy at picking fundamentally sound stocks but can s1 help so that the gurus in here can help analyse this stocks technically.thanks

You have been officially placed in charge of this thread since you are very savvy at picking technically sound stocks...

[kennext]

ok, just finished reading the entire thread, great minds here, Im full support of resurecting the thread

[c kenneths]

(Walks away through the back door, grinning evily)

[twentypercent]

Originally Posted by kennext

ok, just finished reading the entire thread, great minds here, Im full support of resurecting the thread

Hi everyone, I suspect that a technical analysis thread might cause a 'brain drain' on SMN as ppl might be tempted to follow the inputs there 'hook & line' while it will increase the tendency to blame guru's if the market decides to do it's own thing and go against the trend. Just as in a world cup penalty shoot-out where popular players shy away from taking penalties, I will implore the gurus to make comments about their preference.
I think the current format is okay where comments are made on stocks in their threads, let's not have another 'Top 10 picks' here on SMN...the downsides are too much and I think it will stifle the level on the hard earned rapport already cultivated.

[savvy]

Originally Posted by twentypercent

Hi everyone, I suspect that a technical analysis thread might cause a 'brain drain' on SMN as ppl might be tempted to follow the inputs there 'hook & line' while it will increase the tendency to blame guru's if the market decides to do it's own thing and go against the trend. Just as in a world cup penalty shoot-out where popular players shy away from taking penalties, I will implore the gurus to make comments about their preference.
I think the current format is okay where comments are made on stocks in their threads, let's not have another 'Top 10 picks' here on SMN...the downsides are too much and I think it will stifle the level on the hard earned rapport already cultivated.

Please can you expatiate more

This is because my understanding of TA is that it is a tool to be used IN CONJUNCTION WITH fundamentals..

So I dont base decisions on just TA but Fundamentals BEFORE the TA to grasp the trend and position to enter..

So please oh TA is not wiped out just that it require time which I dont presently have

[kennext]

we are not trying to replace fundamentals with TA, infact as far as NSE is concerned, Fundamental Analysis is the champion(even that fails some times)

but if you have ever done TA b4 in other markets like FX you will appreciate the the power of TA, I believe that TA if properly applied will give u a more defined point of entry.

Take this scenario for instance, I have checked the fundamentals for a stock A, the fundamentals are strong at price N10 but Im looking at my TA and I can see that d price is still going down, Now I am aware of the strong fundamentals of this stock but I will follow my TA and wait till the trend finishes its course and once a reversal occurs I buy now probably at N7.5 instead of N10

[lordgbengss]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

You have been officially placed in charge of this thread since you are very savvy at picking technically sound stocks...

umh,but before a stock is technically "analyse-able" then the fundamentals has to be good for long term investment horizon.

[lordgbengss]

Originally Posted by twentypercent

Hi everyone, I suspect that a technical analysis thread might cause a 'brain drain' on SMN as ppl might be tempted to follow the inputs there 'hook & line' while it will increase the tendency to blame guru's if the market decides to do it's own thing and go against the trend. Just as in a world cup penalty shoot-out where popular players shy away from taking penalties, I will implore the gurus to make comments about their preference.
I think the current format is okay where comments are made on stocks in their threads, let's not have another 'Top 10 picks' here on SMN...the downsides are too much and I think it will stifle the level on the hard earned rapport already cultivated.

You are right my broda ppl just want a magic formula that opens all doors,no analysis is 100% and people dont want to blive that,thats why i dont blame analyst on cnbc or bloomberg that recommends a buy and the next day the stock crashes,it is the market nobody can tame it.

[hispy99]

http://www.proshareng.com/admin/uplo...NSE_080709.pdf
The Importance of Utilizing Technical Analysis in Trading the NSE

[zainabusman]

Originally Posted by hispy99

http://www.proshareng.com/admin/uplo...NSE_080709.pdf
The Importance of Utilizing Technical Analysis in Trading the NSE

The analyst says "Predicting the future moves in the stock market is a science". He then went on to name TA as one of the methods used to predict the future moves of stock prices. TA a science? I dont agree. Predicting the direction of the market is more of an art than science.

The fact that some mathematics is involved in TA does not make it a science. For example, when u calculate the strenght of a material using the correct formulas, u know with some degree of certainty how the material will behave when subjected to different levels of pressure other things constant. However, when u do TA and decide that the stock is in a free fall, u absoultely do not know with certainty at what price it will stop dropping.