Technical Analysis

[MalamImam]

May all the TA gurus here come out of hibernation. The time has come to inform us of your findings. The market dey fear me as e dey! Abeg show us your TAs!

[nosa2]

Originally Posted by MalamImam

May all the TA gurus here come out of hibernation. The time has come to inform us of your findings. The market dey fear me as e dey! Abeg show us your TAs!

you dey fear ke, dont you know that its when the butcher is killing the cow that beef is cheapest. So therefore weep not for the bears for they will show you what to buy.

[lordgbengss]

Originally Posted by MalamImam

May all the TA gurus here come out of hibernation. The time has come to inform us of your findings. The market dey fear me as e dey! Abeg show us your TAs!

Malam,no cause for alarm hold your ground as I am,its only a correction,major world indices are in this phase presently,we are not alone.... cheers

[c kenneths]

This curent market mayhem, does it mean nobody from the TA camp saw it coming? Don't you think TA does its analysis after the fact. Maybe its right to trust Utuocha afterall (spititual analysis SA)

[yemo]

Originally Posted by c kenneths

This curent market mayhem, does it mean nobody from the TA camp saw it coming? Don't you think TA does its analysis after the fact. Maybe its right to trust Utuocha afterall (spititual analysis SA)

Wasnt checking. Gimmee a stock and will check. Though remember that:
1) (depending on the calc) the warning signs can be there, but no corrective action takes place because overall sentiment may be positive

2) TA works with what you provide it. So it doesnt "predict" anything, but will give a best case scenario with what data you provide it. If an "event" occurs (like an announcement) that changes the market then of course that invalidates any previous assumptions in the provided data.

[yemo]

Originally Posted by c kenneths

Don't you think TA does its analysis after the fact.

The only TA I do against the whole market as opposed to individual stocks is the Advance/Decline ratio on the index, which is a function of advancing issues to the number of declining issues.

Attached chart illustrates that as far back as the beginning of May the ratio of advances to declines was tailing off giving a warning that the bull run was going to run out of steam. Now (from experience) it could mean a temporary correction, but the ADline kept dropping indicating that a reversal was on the way.

You are correct that with hindsight its easy to give these types of explanations, and am no expert. But definitely the charts paint a story of something...

[knightofdelta]

Originally Posted by c kenneths

This curent market mayhem, does it mean nobody from the TA camp saw it coming? Don't you think TA does its analysis after the fact. Maybe its right to trust Utuocha afterall (spititual analysis SA)

The fact that you know that the market is coming down is TA. You have stopped buying but there are those who are still bringing the money into the market...

[pumping]

Originally Posted by knightofdelta

The fact that you know that the market is coming down is TA. You have stopped buying but there are those who are still bringing the money into the market...

I think TA would have captured this one. The volumes dropped and we started seeing lower lows. Actually Eniyanman gave his prediction of lower highs at precisely the right moment. Not saying that he used TA but even on a general level, you can percieve the market was trending down.

[lordgbengss]

Principle of price movement

I will like to talk about what I believe is one of the foundations of Technical analysis, it is key to understanding technical analysis, which is how price moves, this principle is universal it can be applied in any market, but it does not always happen but it occurs frequently, but with skill and experience you will be able to master it.
Price moves vertically then diagonally or horizontally after which you can expect a Continuation or Reversal. Vertical moves define trend. Diagonal moves continue with the momentum. Horizontal moves consolidate the conquest.
As price moves it will hit a ceiling (resistance) or a floor (support) which it can not penetrate with ease. At these levels you will see on your charts turning points in the price. When the price penetrates these levels we have a breakout. When we have a breakout of the resistance level the price will initially accelerate away from it very quickly. It should then make a parabola type u-turn and retest the resistance level which now acts as support and vice versa. Illustration below.

Please for all the illustrations you will have to go to my blog in my signature,its giving me upload error here on SMN

This formation is something that will take place over several candles/days. Sometimes the parabola forms a hook, which will require a different approach, see illustration below.

Sometimes it fails or doesn’t break the support/resistance totally and the support/resistance looses significance, see illustration below.

If you understand this basic concept, then what is required is skill and experience in playing them. In subsequent post I will be drawing up illustrations to further buttress this point.

[lordgbengss]

Please i am having problems loading my charts,they are quite large,administrators please do something.

[yemo]

Traded data for 16 Jun 2010

[yemo]

Originally Posted by lordgbengss

Please i am having problems loading my charts,they are quite large,administrators please do something.

lordgbengss. No more TA charts? One or two for you based on RSI (Close) Might be good to to also look as moving averages to supplement the indicators based on this data range

[yemo]

Originally Posted by lordgbengss

Please i am having problems loading my charts,they are quite large,administrators please do something.

lordgbengss

Still hoping we can revive the analysis on this thread. Let me know which TA software you use, or whether we need to "build some features" for you for us to continue.

Thanks

Y

[yemo]

Despite the rally witnessed in the last couple of days, based on the last 30 days, doesnt look like the rally is sustainable.

[yemo]

Latest Advance/Decline ratio on the index

[Ozone]

Originally Posted by yemo

Latest Advance/Decline ratio on the index

Oga yemo kindly interprete this current chart ?

[yemo]

Originally Posted by Ozone

Oga yemo kindly interprete this current chart ?

Bros.

It is a statistical method. The Advance/Decline Ratio is the ratio of the number of advancing issues to the number of declining issues. Basically, using the number of trades moving up and number of trades moving down over the last (in this example) 30 days what is the likelihood of the index moving in a particular direction.

As I said, it is a statistical method using data on how the index has previously performed over a given period. However, as you are aware, there may be other underlying reasons for people buying/selling now that were not inherent in market activity in the previous days.

Other indicators combined with this (or others) may give greater insight. For example if the BidOffer charts are now also indicating that fewer orders are now being placed as opposed to say 2 weeks ago it might be another indication of whether the current rally is sustainable.

At the end of the day, its all just probabilities

[hispy99]

Candlestick charting as powerful tool for market decisions (2) - The Punch - Nigeria's Most Widely Read Newspaper

[yemo]

Poor analysis blamed for low investors's participation on NSE by President of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS)..shortcoming had created room for foreign investors to overshadow the local ones

Ya should talk to the NSE my friend

[Picolena66]

Originally Posted by yemo

Poor analysis blamed for low investors's participation on NSE by President of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS)..shortcoming had created room for foreign investors to overshadow the local ones

Ya should talk to the NSE my friend

Hmmm...............well most people or Investors will only trust what they know...Maybe some Knowledge, Enlightenment or Education could assist for future participation