Union Bank

[prince dagbolu]

Originally Posted by riskreturn

I am convinced they must have their reasons for launching an historically greatest volume (over 0.3 trillion Naira) of PO under an "historically" crashed market. They have issuing houses that know very much about the market situation not less than us and they must have guided UBN aright, in view of some information at their disposal but which we may not be privy to. Definitely, they would not expect me to sell Bank PHB at 20 Naira' Access Bank at just over 14 Naira, Skye Bank at just over 13 Naira, Diamond Bank at 14 Naira or Oceanic at about 21 Naira for the purpose of subscribing for UBN public offer unless they are sure the end-2009 P/E ratio would not exceed about 6 times for UBN or they are just waiting indefinitely for the bull to eventually return to the market before commencing the PO or both of the above.

However, I do concede that other extraneous factors might have compelled this seemingly hasty and untimely PO, e.g. likely pending retirement, on grounds of age, of the CEO - would want to take the glory of lanuching a successful PO and deployment of the proceeds prior to his retirement.

Let us wait and watch this unfold before our eyes. This will be one interesting wait.

[ttoladele]

And lets hope they do e-allotment, we don't want another fiasco.

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by riskreturn

I am convinced they must have their reasons for launching an historically greatest volume (over 0.3 trillion Naira) of PO under an "historically" crashed market. They have issuing houses that know very much about the market situation not less than us and they must have guided UBN aright, in view of some information at their disposal but which we may not be privy to. Definitely, they would not expect me to sell Bank PHB at 20 Naira' Access Bank at just over 14 Naira, Skye Bank at just over 13 Naira, Diamond Bank at 14 Naira or Oceanic at about 21 Naira for the purpose of subscribing for UBN public offer unless they are sure the end-2009 P/E ratio would not exceed about 6 times for UBN or they are just waiting indefinitely for the bull to eventually return to the market before commencing the PO or both of the above.

However, I do concede that other extraneous factors might have compelled this seemingly hasty and untimely PO, e.g. likely pending retirement, on grounds of age, of the CEO - would want to take the glory of lanuching a successful PO and deployment of the proceeds prior to his retirement.

Rsikreturn, Pls do not kill me with laughter! oga Barth wants me to 'sell' SKye bank with a single digit PE for N13 (less than the PO price), to invest on the UBN right at N35 (with double digit PE)? Or maybe I should sell Bank PHB with over 60% above industry indices in profitability for N21, so that I do UBN (with below par performance) PO at N36? Notice there is not even much difference b/w the rights and PO prices. Talk of market reality insensitivity! I think these guys think too much of their - big, strong, and reliable - slogan (not realising that it is just what it is - a slogan). No wonder they have ran the bank to the present state where it takes three months to grant you online access to your account, and ATM does not work during rain or cloudy weather! We shall see. I used to be very strong on UBN and had kept my holdings until I heard the recent rumored 1 for 4. What's that? When even FBN that did 1 for 4, and matched theirs with cash dividend was loosing money? I had to sell fast fast. Thank God I did!

[threecrown]

Whether in a bearish or a bullish market, banks like UBN and FIRST bank po's will be over surbscribed at any time simply because of there name. Most people who own this stocks dont see them as trading stocks but long term investment stocks so that is why i think they have experienced little selling presures and the bears have had little effect on them. People like my father will ony buy two stocks, UBN and FIRST bank and they dont no about trading.
So this one will also sell out fast.

[emmanuel ewumi]

Originally Posted by threecrown

Whether in a bearish or a bullish market, banks like UBN and FIRST bank po's will be over surbscribed at any time simply because of there name. Most people who own this stocks dont see them as trading stocks but long term investment stocks so that is why i think they have experienced little selling presures and the bears have had little effect on them. People like my father will ony buy two stocks, UBN and FIRST bank and they dont no about trading.
So this one will also sell out fast.

l agree with you that the offer will be successful,wheather the market is bullish or bearish.l am also into old generation banks.
They might have their peculiar problems but l know that my money is safe.
With the uniform financial year,for banks it will now be easier for us to rate the financial performance of our banks.

[tonidol]

In my own opinion, going by the present circumstances in the market and the excellent prices of some fundamentally strong and aggressive banks, l doubt this PO will be a success at this time. If it is, good luck then to the buyers.

No matter the calculations world stock experts do on this, l cannot buy UBN even for N30 judging by the market prices of other Bank stocks today. e-allotment or z-allotment. I don't care.

Chikena!!!

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by threecrown

Whether in a bearish or a bullish market, banks like UBN and FIRST bank po's will be over surbscribed at any time simply because of there name. Most people who own this stocks dont see them as trading stocks but long term investment stocks so that is why i think they have experienced little selling presures and the bears have had little effect on them. People like my father will ony buy two stocks, UBN and FIRST bank and they dont no about trading.
So this one will also sell out fast.

All I can say is - Do not under rate the Nigerian investing public's intelligence. News fly fast and except the offer lands during the bull time, they will have to rely on underwriters to get 100% subscription rate. You know that kind "over-subscrption" rate of 102%? That is what they will get if they come now during the bear rampage.

[migiets]

Originally Posted by waaan5

All I can say is - Do not under rate the Nigerian investing public's intelligence. News fly fast and except the offer lands during the bull time, they will have to rely on underwriters to get 100% subscription rate. You know that kind "over-subscrption" rate of 102%? That is what they will get if they come now during the bear rampage.

Union Bank has the most diversified shareholding structure in the Banking industry. You cannot really pin-point anybody that has a major stake in it. Don't you think that the PO at this bearish time could be a ploy by some people to have a higher stake in the Bank. Just my thoughts.

[ntom]

Originally Posted by waaan5

All I can say is - Do not under rate the Nigerian investing public's intelligence. News fly fast and except the offer lands during the bull time, they will have to rely on underwriters to get 100% subscription rate. You know that kind "over-subscrption" rate of 102%? That is what they will get if they come now during the bear rampage.

this is another afribank, in our very eyes the prices was push to where it is now, the same thing wema bank is been acuse of, i dont pity any one who wants to waste his money.

[prince dagbolu]

Originally Posted by ntom

this is another afribank, in our very eyes the prices was push to where it is now, the same thing wema bank is been acuse of, i dont pity any one who wants to waste his money.

Well said Ntom. I have said my own. I am going to restrain myself from buying this offer. It is just too over-priced. I will be really suprised if it becomes over-subscribed.

[billions]

UBN traded 13.6b units today despite d TS,d bonus rumour may be true.

The average daily volume traded after d TS is less dan 1m units.

[zainabusman]

Originally Posted by billions

UBN traded 13.6b units today despite d TS,d bonus rumour may be true.

The average daily volume traded after d TS is less dan 1m units.

The PO is going to be at N36 so this can give us an indication of the bonus they can offer. The maximum bonus they can do is 1 for 6. A 1 for 6 bonus will result in the price being adjusted to N36. Which leaves no discount for the PO. If there really will be a bonus it will likely be in the region of 1 for 8 or less. That will leave some discount on the table for the PO.

[billions]

Originally Posted by zainabusman

The PO is going to be at N36 so this can give us an indication of the bonus they can offer. The maximum bonus they can do is 1 for 6. A 1 for 6 bonus will result in the price being adjusted to N36. Which leaves no discount for the PO. If there really will be a bonus it will likely be in the region of 1 for 8 or less. That will leave some discount on the table for the PO.

Thats true except they declare d bonus after d offer and dat wont sound nice.

[zainabusman]

Originally Posted by billions

UBN traded 13.6b units today despite d TS,d bonus rumour may be true.

The average daily volume traded after d TS is less dan 1m units.

Well they can do that trick. But they will run foul of CBN rule which says u must declare ur result 4 months after year end. Off course some banks have not followed this strictly.

Secondly who would want to buy a PO when the company refuses to release its result when it should?

[waaan5]

Originally Posted by migiets

Union Bank has the most diversified shareholding structure in the Banking industry. You cannot really pin-point anybody that has a major stake in it. Don't you think that the PO at this bearish time could be a ploy by some people to have a higher stake in the Bank. Just my thoughts.

You may be right what with the over 13 bln units trade it did today even in the face of the TS. They might be trying to goad more people into selling by the high IPO price and lacklustre financial performance. Might be some powerful forces are trying to now get a large chunk of the outstanding shares. The last time I checked, no one person or institution (outside of Union bank) has upto 5% of the outstanding shares. This is why career staff can afford to manage the bank the way they have been doing of late.

There sure is value in the PO price of N36 to the one person or institution who could gain control by acquiring even 15% of the company (this was what Acces bank wanted to do through the back door). With that, one can be able to reposition the company for the maximal benefit of the majority shareholder and by inference guarantee 'good return' on investment. But for us small players, it is still over priced as our stake will not be enough to change things.

[billions]

Originally Posted by waaan5

You may be right what with the over 13 bln units trade it did today even in the face of the TS. They might be trying to goad more people into selling by the high IPO price and lacklustre financial performance. Might be some powerful forces are trying to now get a large chunk of the outstanding shares. The last time I checked, no one person or institution (outside of Union bank) has upto 5% of the outstanding shares. This is why career staff can afford to manage the bank the way they have been doing of late.

There sure is value in the PO price of N36 to the one person or institution who could gain control by acquiring even 15% of the company (this was what Acces bank wanted to do through the back door). With that, one can be able to reposition the company for the maximal benefit of the majority shareholder and by inference guarantee 'good return' on investment. But for us small players, it is still over priced as our stake will not be enough to change things.

You hv a point!

From d fact dat the offer is massive/expensive/coming during dis difficult time...it appears dat UBN may hv seen an institutional investor dat is ready to take a large part of d offer but it is too early to conclude now.

UBN traded 13.6m units,not 13.6b units....it was a typographical error.