Zenith Bank

[dotunk]

windywendy

thats my point exactly. the stock market is a volatile one... prices fluctuate and plans should be flexible to accomodate these fluctuations. but there has to be a saflety net... your exit price.

therefore it is necessary to pull out at your exit price and leave sentiments out.

[c kenneths]

I agree with everybody on this one, I will make haste and sell my excess Zenith stock and wait and see what happens with the balance. The stock has since gone past my exit point, pls dont call me greedy !

[dotunk]

i think zennith will give bonus this year.

their PAT of 9months is already at about 18billion an that 3bill more than FBN's 9months result.

FBN gave bonus last yr (1for1) and still have 15bil PAT @9months compared to zeiths wey never give bonus just impresive div payout.

so i would advcate a purchase order for zenith. cant you see the price rising? this is one stock that has NEVER gone belw both IPO & PO price. need more proof than that?

so Chrisgle, i dont know what you are talking about... except you know some other thing we dont???

share please!

[alanbow]

I am afraid I do not still agree with Windywendy here. I am not assuming anything. I suppose this can only be true if you are looking at small less liquid stock in the short term which is one I don't go for anyway.

I will not sell a stock that is increasing and once it stock goes past my inital planned exit point which as you said is being revised because of more information, I monitor it on daily basis looking at volume, and intraday price movements for warning signs so Even if speculative investors start to sell I will catch on this quickly hence in my inital post I said to DotunK that my attention on the stock will even be more detailed.

I am in this game to maximise profit

It will be a shame if C kenneths sells his Zenith stock at this point in my opinion. If you go for good stocks with solid fundamentals in the first place and with a medium term goal I don't agree you should be selling when it is increasing. (Specifically on Zenith, I read somewhere that a bonus is iminent to the extent of a 1 for 1 so not a good time to sell)

This is one of the core training I recieved in Investment from one of the leading investors in the UK and it has not failed me so far.

[jazmil]

I'm definitely keeping my Zenith bank shares especially with the financial year end around the corner. With a P/E of 26.37 I don't think that its future earnings have been completely factored into its current price. And with a market thats crazy about rumours of dividends and bonuses and with Zenith bank's track record, I think next month will be a great time to own zenith bank shares.

[c kenneths]

I will still sell a few of my Zenith stocks to take advantage of newly emerged opportunities. The price may go on and on but I have gotten to my own exit point, at the same time my strategy on this one is just selling to pick up the principal, others will still remain.

[windywendy]

Originally Posted by alanbow

I am afraid I do not still agree with Windywendy here. I am not assuming anything. I suppose this can only be true if you are looking at small less liquid stock in the short term which is one I don't go for anyway.

I will not sell a stock that is increasing and once it stock goes past my inital planned exit point which as you said is being revised because of more information, I monitor it on daily basis looking at volume, and intraday price movements for warning signs so Even if speculative investors start to sell I will catch on this quickly hence in my inital post I said to DotunK that my attention on the stock will even be more detailed.

I am in this game to maximise profit

It will be a shame if C kenneths sells his Zenith stock at this point in my opinion. If you go for good stocks with solid fundamentals in the first place and with a medium term goal I don't agree you should be selling when it is increasing. (Specifically on Zenith, I read somewhere that a bonus is iminent to the extent of a 1 for 1 so not a good time to sell)

This is one of the core training I recieved in Investment from one of the leading investors in the UK and it has not failed me so far.

What I said can be true of ANY stock, large cap or small cap.

Case in point: I have a good friend who does exactly as you've stated. His initial exit point for DSR was N45. The price rose beyond N45, he revised it to N50. The price rose beyond N50, he revised it to N60. The price hit N56 something and has been tumbling ever since. He hasn't been able to sell ever since. We use the same broker, FSDH, so the question of incompetence on the part of the broker doesn't even arise. And DSR is NOT a small cap stock, it's highly liquid. It's been closing on offer for more than 2 weeks now, and goodluck selling if you're trying to sell.

The same applies to entry points. Enter at your entry point and don't wait too long for it to fall further, because then demand becomes too heavy and then the shares become too scarce to buy and the price rises above your entry point.

Remember with TA, many more people are watching the same thing you're watching, so you don't necessarily have a competitive advantage there, so to speak. So you would be much better off putting a lot of effort into ensuring that the price (entry or exit point) is right. Many institutional investors (and these are the ones that really drive the market) know when a stock is overvalued and when to take profit, and vice versa. The key is to get in or out ahead of them. And these guys play in the large cap sectors.

But again, we can agree to disagree.

[alanbow]

Hi Windywendy,

I like your last paragraph.

I also posted the same question on another international forum and this was the response I got which is in sink with the your last paragraph

"This is where back testing is particularly useful. There is no perfect answer. You have to test different exit strategies with your strategy and see which performs the best. The answer might surprise you."

So my conclusion is different strokes for different folks......

[babatunde akinyemi]

Originally Posted by c kenneths

I agree with everybody on this one, I will make haste and sell my excess Zenith stock and wait and see what happens with the balance. The stock has since gone past my exit point, pls dont call me greedy !

c.kenneth
please don't sell now. Wait till after they have released their result. Zenith price will not fall considerably in th meantime. Infact it would have continued to rise if not for the recent bearish trend and the numerous offers now in the market. I expect it going up to about =N=60 once their result is released.

[dotunk]

and i say stick to your entry and exit prices, thats how you wont get burnt.

now windywendy's friend is stock with shares he should have disposed... if he had borrowed the money to return sometime later, he wont be able to pay now.

revising your exit point isnt bad since one is not supposed to be hardassed at a point. but one should know that the price would come down one day.

[whatsup]

Does anybody have a realistic opinion of the bonus payout Zenith will give this year?

Its seems to be a laggard for now and I am considering selling and rebuying before the price surge.

[c kenneths]

There is no certainty at the moment of the bonus ratio, you will definitely lose if you sell now to rebuy before the announcement of results, the time is too short and you may be too late for this party !

[dotunk]

a bonus is likely... the market expects it.

[paragon]

i can tell you with 80% certainty the zenith bank will definitely give a bonus. One thing i think most people do not know is that a bonus is used as a tool to lower the price of a share so that as the company makes money from the bonus, new investors can rush in.

Zenith bank knows better, afterall, most investors will not but into the share @ N50.00 and even if they give a dividend of N2 which they would not, it will still not impact on the price.

[c kenneths]

Paragon, a bonus sure is used to reduce the price of a share but please educate us on how that can be used by the company to make money from the bonus as you implied.

[dotunk]

well c keneths,

the bonus reduces the share price alright by dilution and correction.

it also make money for the company in the following way. once there is a rumour that there will be a bonus, the price starts to jump, and you know that this kind of newsdoesnt get out easy enough for most people to buy into the company.

so most get to know when the price is already on the high side and the is ow the company makes money.

see Zenith, it was around N35 - N40 when this rumour got out and the thing just jump go N50.

thats my theory... i may be wrong.

[alanbow]

I agree with Dotunk's analysis above.

And this kind of rumours are usually deliberate to hike the price and will most likely come true.

So like my initial advice to C kenneths, I will not be selling any of my zenith share just yet.

[c kenneths]

But the price jumping from 35- 50 will only make the investors richer with capital appreciation, how will Zenith as a company gain from this price increase?.

Except zenith bought and sold it own shares, how will it benefit from a price rise? More responses please.